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Realized P&L
-$8
Unrealized P&L
-$2
Hit rate
68.2%
Resolved
90
Trades
197
lifetime
Volume
$578
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$78
28 positions
First seen
2026-10-15
last 11-14 16:29
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 25 days
Categories
Politics
62% 53% -$13
Other
38% 43% +$5
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
27 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +53 $28 64¢ $34 +$5 10-27 07:39
Will voter turnout be less than 76% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? Yes +20 $17 81¢ $16 -$1 11-08 08:50
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +5 $3 52¢ $3 $0 11-05 20:59
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +10 $1 26¢ $3 +$1 10-27 08:44
Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the summit? Yes +10 $2 25¢ $2 +$0 11-13 08:54
Will Christine Lagarde be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +13 $1 15¢ $2 +$1 11-09 01:49
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? No +13 $1 14¢ $2 +$1 10-27 08:55
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +10 $2 17¢ $2 $0 10-27 08:48
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +10 $2 15¢ $1 $0 10-27 08:47
Will Xi and Takaichi not shake hands during the summit? Yes +10 $2 12¢ $1 $0 11-13 08:47
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? Yes +5 $2 22¢ $1 -$1 11-07 20:17
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +10 $2 10¢ $1 -$1 10-27 08:47
Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $1 10¢ $1 $0 11-14 16:29
Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the summit? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 $0 11-13 08:45
Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day? No +8 $1 12¢ $1 $0 10-27 21:14
Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31? Yes +8 $1 11¢ $1 $0 11-10 12:38
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +20 $0 4¢ $1 +$1 11-09 19:34
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +16 $1 5¢ $1 $0 10-27 08:45
Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the summit? Yes +35 $0 2¢ $1 +$0 11-13 08:45
Will Trump resign before 2027? Yes +53 $1 1¢ $1 $0 11-05 21:25
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +44 $1 2¢ $1 $0 11-04 12:24
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $2 7¢ $1 -$1 11-06 14:09
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +2 $1 30¢ $0 -$1 10-19 07:49
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 30, 2026? Yes +20 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 11-06 14:09
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +25 $0 2¢ $0 $0 10-21 12:15
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? Yes +5 $2 5¢ $0 -$1 11-05 12:20
Will Dana W. White be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes +20 $1 1¢ $0 -$1 11-08 23:29
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by January 1, 2027? Yes +10 $3 0¢ $0 -$3 11-08 22:52