Determined-Photo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.29K

Unrealized P&L

-$114

Hit rate

31.5%

Resolved

Trades

240

lifetime

Volume

$5.39K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$435

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-26 19:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Politics

54% 27% -$296

Other

42% 30% -$1,038

Crypto

4% 36% +$42

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+1,766	$547	24¢	$433	-$115	10-26 19:12
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-24	-$4	8¢	$-2	+$2	05-01 17:09
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+3	$1	14¢	$0	-$1	05-01 17:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	11	$923	1,836	1,836	+0	Yes	-$299	07-06 13:33
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	6	$547	1,766	0	+1,766	open	—	10-26 19:12
will israel strike lebanon on february 15 2026	8	$463	379	379	+0	Yes	+$19	02-15 19:21
israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	21	$433	1,468	1,425	+42	No	-$311	07-12 20:08
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	2	$411	759	759	+0	Yes	-$409	03-08 21:22
israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	1	$350	1,214	0	+1,214	Yes	-$350	07-14 10:39
will israel strike iraq by february 28	2	$213	119	119	+0	No	-$8	02-28 10:37
will israel strike gaza on february 16 2026	1	$197	225	0	+225	No	-$197	02-16 10:21
will israel strike gaza on february 15 2026	2	$164	108	106	+2	Yes	+$45	02-15 06:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	4	$139	130	127	+4	Yes	+$53	04-17 19:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 03:20 UTC	2	$137	92	91	+1	Up	+$44	02-22 03:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	5	$133	1,098	1,057	+41	No	-$19	04-22 18:33
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$132	707	707	+0	Yes	-$66	06-15 16:08
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	2	$112	90	88	+2	Yes	+$66	02-28 08:56
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	7	$82	70	68	+2	Yes	+$18	02-28 08:56
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$77	94	94	+0	Yes	+$0	03-03 14:33
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	3	$65	2,418	2,418	+0	No	-$51	03-01 00:20
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$64	57	57	+0	No	-$8	03-30 01:30
will israel strike gaza on february 20 2026	2	$61	38	38	+0	Yes	+$13	02-20 09:52
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	5	$60	947	0	+947	No	-$60	06-26 20:26
will israel strike gaza on january 30 2026	2	$58	40	40	+0	Yes	+$18	01-30 06:19
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	1	$48	480	0	+480	Yes	+$432	03-08 20:05
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$38	118	118	+0	Yes	+$7	02-27 17:45
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$37	80	80	+0	Yes	+$10	03-03 14:21
mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	2	$29	181	181	+0	No	-$17	08-10 11:05
will israel strike gaza on february 21 2026	1	$28	64	0	+64	No	-$28	02-20 21:49
pakistan strikes afghanistan by february 27 2026	3	$28	16	16	+0	Yes	+$3	02-26 22:33
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$27	1,290	0	+1,290	No	-$27	01-31 23:18
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	4	$26	59	59	+0	Yes	-$26	03-08 21:22
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by january 31	3	$14	109	109	+0	No	-$2	01-28 00:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:12:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,120	28¢	$314	0x197870…
10-09 01:29:36	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	20¢	$13	0x94d1bd…
10-07 20:28:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	108	37¢	$40	0x4a94dc…
10-05 10:28:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x8ea498…
10-03 17:38:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	467	36¢	$168	0x49ade6…
10-01 15:03:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0x8e7fc8…
10-01 15:03:11	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	15¢	$4	0x5bb9f4…
09-06 18:39:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x2d8cf5…
08-22 11:06:10	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x2f9a0d…
08-10 11:05:15	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	Yes	SELL	181	3¢	$6	0x217211…
07-30 00:04:20	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	Yes	BUY	181	13¢	$23	0xa28e1c…
07-14 10:39:38	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	No	BUY	1,214	29¢	$350	0x6b6ac9…
07-12 20:08:08	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	SELL	1,373	4¢	$52	0xc1b916…
07-11 12:21:28	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	SELL	53	17¢	$9	0xcf8922…
07-06 13:33:53	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	SELL	1,692	17¢	$288	0xe92478…
07-06 13:29:16	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0x68e93a…
07-06 13:28:29	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0x6e6c9e…
07-06 13:27:43	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x8d992a…
07-06 13:25:41	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	SELL	116	17¢	$20	0x87b7c0…
07-03 09:23:34	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	115	20¢	$23	0x5637a4…
07-03 07:12:28	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xc24998…
07-02 12:31:35	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	147	19¢	$28	0x87dd16…
06-29 11:14:25	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	77	19¢	$15	0xe6e854…
06-29 07:57:52	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	36	19¢	$7	0x45b3f5…
06-29 07:57:40	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0xc3b0bc…
06-29 07:48:01	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	171	19¢	$32	0x93e457…
06-29 07:47:44	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0x53b2db…
06-29 07:47:37	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x7a30d7…
06-29 07:44:34	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	21	17¢	$4	0xdf0c88…
06-29 07:44:02	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	49	13¢	$6	0x46de95…
06-28 14:05:14	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	401	25¢	$100	0x1e7e62…
06-27 11:08:16	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	344	35¢	$120	0x3d51dd…
06-27 10:41:16	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x7ea921…
06-27 06:23:53	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	97	35¢	$34	0x37ecb1…
06-26 20:26:35	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	94	7¢	$7	0xa6d6a8…
06-26 19:43:47	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x74ba81…
06-26 19:43:34	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xd8a565…
06-26 19:40:16	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0xf7ae72…
06-26 19:38:41	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	46	38¢	$17	0x123b92…
06-26 19:36:17	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	403	6¢	$23	0x4be3ef…
06-26 19:36:01	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	355	5¢	$18	0x9a9501…
06-26 19:35:25	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	1,328	33¢	$436	0x9b0af4…
06-24 10:40:55	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x9a0b40…
06-24 10:40:47	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	19	31¢	$6	0x25b119…
06-24 09:08:07	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x3804c2…
06-24 09:07:34	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x661c70…
06-24 08:44:44	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	89	14¢	$12	0x039c28…
06-24 08:38:34	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	Yes	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x17f92d…
06-24 08:38:19	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x8e831a…
06-15 16:08:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	707	5¢	$33	0x6e8207…
06-15 07:21:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	707	14¢	$99	0x5385c2…
05-08 07:10:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x6ae0b1…
05-08 07:10:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x063fa4…
05-08 07:10:24	Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	10¢	$7	0x029ea8…
05-01 17:22:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xf799d9…
05-01 17:22:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xd3e430…
05-01 17:09:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf0803a…
05-01 17:09:06	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	24	15¢	$4	0x03d0f5…
04-22 18:33:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	SELL	1,038	4¢	$47	0x85c928…
04-19 17:06:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	967	5¢	$52	0x509764…
04-17 19:47:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0x2cc3a0…
04-08 20:14:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x70ce8d…
04-08 20:14:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x872f20…
04-08 12:37:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	SELL	72	58¢	$42	0x3712e8…
04-07 12:46:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	SELL	19	54¢	$11	0x2deb7f…
04-01 08:30:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x1ee39c…
04-01 08:29:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x82b8d6…
03-30 01:30:38	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	57	49¢	$28	0x40be5f…
03-19 09:16:13	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	57	63¢	$36	0x20b990…
03-08 22:23:03	will israel strike gaza on march 9 2026	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x9e949a…
03-08 21:22:53	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	No	SELL	59	0¢	$0	0x5ddae2…
03-08 21:22:45	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	No	SELL	759	0¢	$1	0xa2c60e…
03-08 20:15:57	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	No	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xcbc2ad…
03-08 20:05:37	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	No	BUY	759	54¢	$410	0x22a939…
03-08 20:05:27	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	Yes	BUY	480	10¢	$48	0x9a31e0…
03-06 10:43:13	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	No	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x97d668…
03-06 09:01:45	will the us test a nuclear weapon by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0x9f06da…
03-04 02:07:23	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	No	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0xb5a251…
03-04 02:06:39	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0xbaa351…
03-03 14:39:19	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa001d9…
03-03 14:34:15	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	No	BUY	43	49¢	$21	0xc384de…
03-03 14:33:59	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x2ca8b4…
03-03 14:22:05	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x9fba4d…
03-03 14:21:27	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	80	29¢	$23	0xed79ee…
03-02 06:25:47	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0xe45998…
03-01 10:55:41	will iran strike a gulf state on march 1	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x69c68b…
03-01 03:23:35	will iran strike a gulf state on march 1	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xd34d57…
03-01 01:42:05	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	SELL	125	0¢	$1	0x4e6fbf…
03-01 00:23:51	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	125	2¢	$3	0xb845bb…
03-01 00:20:05	will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	Yes	SELL	2,418	0¢	$7	0x8437ab…
02-28 17:10:21	will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	Yes	BUY	2,083	2¢	$50	0x6a652b…
02-28 17:06:27	will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	Yes	BUY	335	2¢	$8	0xee1692…
02-28 16:49:13	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xa10f71…
02-28 16:06:23	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x55814b…
02-28 16:06:05	will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	Yes	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0x8adeca…
02-28 10:37:49	will israel strike iraq by february 28	Yes	SELL	119	86¢	$102	0xb4f93e…
02-28 09:55:49	will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	Yes	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0xa7abb4…
02-28 09:28:11	will israel strike iraq by february 28	Yes	BUY	119	93¢	$110	0xd5b08c…
02-28 08:56:27	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x0d29fa…
02-28 08:56:09	US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0xef26d8…