Realized P&L
+$2.58K
Unrealized P&L
+$136
Hit rate
50.7%
Resolved
392
Trades
4,005
lifetime
Volume
$44.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$3.82K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-19
last 10-29 09:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 66 days
Categories
Other
69% 43% +$2,495
Politics
21% 42% +$179
Tech
7% 0% -$30
Sports
1% 41% -$16
Pop-Culture
1% 17% -$4
Crypto
0% 0% -$41
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
12 active days in 12wk • peak 461 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +470 $319 93¢ $439 +$120 10-28 20:34
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +399 $281 72¢ $286 +$5 10-28 15:36
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +361 $260 72¢ $262 +$2 10-26 00:02
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M? Yes +196 $162 92¢ $181 +$19 10-28 16:43
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +198 $158 90¢ $178 +$20 10-27 11:10
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +200 $162 80¢ $159 -$3 10-28 15:08
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M? Yes +156 $144 96¢ $150 +$6 10-28 21:28
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes +229 $121 60¢ $137 +$16 10-25 17:45
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +247 $141 55¢ $136 -$5 10-27 08:49
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes +131 $121 98¢ $129 +$8 10-19 17:30
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +150 $120 82¢ $124 +$4 10-28 20:02
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? Yes +399 $139 29¢ $114 -$25 10-28 15:36
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +247 $116 45¢ $111 -$4 10-27 22:07
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +196 $117 54¢ $106 -$11 10-26 18:44
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? No +200 $100 51¢ $102 +$2 10-24 21:16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +361 $111 28¢ $99 -$11 10-26 00:06
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes +200 $104 49¢ $98 -$6 10-24 21:16
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No +100 $76 97¢ $97 +$21 10-24 18:05
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? No +229 $114 40¢ $92 -$22 10-25 17:45
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +196 $92 46¢ $90 -$2 10-26 18:43
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? Yes +120 $92 74¢ $89 -$4 10-29 03:06
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes +100 $61 88¢ $88 +$27 10-25 16:02
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +131 $77 60¢ $78 +$1 10-27 03:08
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +125 $80 58¢ $73 -$7 10-27 19:58
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? No +75 $72 97¢ $72 +$0 10-23 14:27
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? No +110 $80 66¢ $72 -$8 10-28 19:49
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +100 $72 68¢ $68 -$4 10-28 17:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +100 $66 68¢ $68 +$1 10-28 18:36
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No +100 $63 64¢ $64 +$1 10-23 18:01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +100 $66 61¢ $61 -$5 10-28 20:01