Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$117

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

19.4%

Resolved

Trades

316

lifetime

Volume

$2.68K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

2 positions

First seen

2026-10-12

last 10-19 14:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

75% 18% -$95

Politics

21% 27% -$19

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% 0% -$3

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 230 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No		+20	$11	74¢	$15	+$3	10-13 12:52
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes		+20	$10	26¢	$5	-$4	10-13 12:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 50 and 55 million views in week 1?	10	$109	140	60	+80	Yes	-$1	10-13 13:00
Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	6	$99	200	0	+200	Yes	+$1	10-13 15:55
will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 180b	10	$87	108	55	+52	Yes	-$5	10-13 18:08
Will MrBeast's next video get between 260 and 270 million views on week 2?	6	$83	160	0	+160	No	-$3	10-13 08:03
Will MrBeast's next video get between 270 and 280 million views on week 2?	7	$83	160	59	+101	Yes	$0	10-13 15:18
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	2	$64	50	50	+0	open	—	10-14 04:46
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by October 31, 2026?	2	$59	100	0	+100	open	—	10-13 18:04
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1?	9	$57	84	80	+4	No	-$1	10-13 14:39
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	2	$56	100	0	+100	No	-$6	10-13 16:32
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of October 12 2026?	5	$54	80	0	+80	No	-$14	10-13 12:15
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	6	$48	100	20	+80	Yes	-$2	10-13 12:15
will nextera energy nee q3 operating revenue be above 20261008120020000 7pt5b	4	$44	80	0	+80	Yes	-$4	10-13 16:12
Will PNC (PNC) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$44	50	50	+0	No	+$0	10-13 18:08
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Zacatecas Congress election?	4	$44	40	40	+0	open	—	10-13 03:54
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 38.5 and 40 million views on day 3?	2	$44	80	0	+80	Yes	-$4	10-13 08:06
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	4	$42	59	19	+40	open	—	10-13 08:09
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	2	$42	50	50	+0	open	—	10-12 21:33
will blackstone bx q3 total assets under management aum be above 20261008120027000 1pt38t	4	$42	80	0	+80	No	-$2	10-13 17:10
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	4	$41	80	0	+80	open	—	10-13 12:08
katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	4	$39	80	0	+80	Yes	+$1	10-14 01:23
Will Gintautas Kindurys win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?	3	$34	40	40	+0	open	—	10-13 18:08
will international business machines ibm q3 software revenue be above 20261008120023000 7pt8b	2	$31	20	20	+0	Yes	-$2	10-13 02:33
will google googl q3 cloud revenue be above 20261008120049000 31b	2	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	10-13 18:08
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	7	$31	30	30	+0	open	—	10-13 01:21
will lam research lrcx q1 total revenue be above 20261008120025000 8pt4b	3	$30	20	20	+0	No	-$2	10-13 05:37
Will a team from EMEA win VALORANT Champions 2026?	4	$29	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-13 00:40
Will Marek Hattas win the 2026 Nitra mayoral election?	2	$29	20	20	+0	Yes	-$3	10-13 00:43
will att t q3 total revenue be above 20261008120021000 32pt4b	3	$28	20	20	+0	No	-$3	10-19 14:11
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	4	$28	53	0	+53	Yes	-$3	10-13 13:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	4	$27	46	6	+40	No	-$2	10-13 18:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 14:11:38	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x054ee9…
10-19 14:11:12	Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $32.4B?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x4eabc9…
10-19 14:11:03	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	21¢	$0	0x5a8289…
10-19 14:10:56	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xe1cfe0…
10-14 05:35:58	will paper rex keep both f0rsaken and jinggg for 2027	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x1cfbb0…
10-14 04:55:32	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IA-04 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	11	24¢	$3	0x42e658…
10-14 04:49:10	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-16 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x135a3d…
10-14 04:49:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-16 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x6b1d78…
10-14 04:48:38	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IA-04 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0xae0ba7…
10-14 04:48:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IA-04 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xd998a9…
10-14 04:46:59	Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	14	76¢	$11	0xb71847…
10-14 04:46:58	Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x4b9218…
10-14 04:46:46	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Yes	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0xf11c19…
10-14 04:46:46	us x yemen ceasefire continues through november 30	No	SELL	13	31¢	$4	0x98b36c…
10-14 04:46:04	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-16 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xce2744…
10-14 04:45:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-16 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x7858a4…
10-14 02:38:40	will paper rex keep both f0rsaken and jinggg for 2027	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x078377…
10-14 01:23:55	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	BUY	19	30¢	$6	0x08ff00…
10-14 01:09:06	us x yemen ceasefire continues through november 30	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$4	0x1aaf85…
10-14 01:07:58	us x yemen ceasefire continues through november 30	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xb8e4e7…
10-14 00:52:58	will ap call us house control by november 5	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x92ef0e…
10-13 23:25:12	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe13201…
10-13 23:15:10	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0xe3580b…
10-13 23:03:52	will netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x4bea57…
10-13 23:00:03	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x76b769…
10-13 23:00:00	will netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by march 31 2027	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x25a29d…
10-13 21:09:18	Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x4ec6e1…
10-13 21:02:55	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x43829e…
10-13 20:55:03	Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x6e703d…
10-13 20:48:13	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x1f72ec…
10-13 20:45:33	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	No	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0x269cfa…
10-13 20:08:55	will ap call us house control by november 5	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xae4f33…
10-13 20:00:43	will american express axp q3 total revenue net of interest expense be above 20261008120034000 19pt75b	Yes	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0xdad5c1…
10-13 18:08:25	us x yemen ceasefire continues through october 18	No	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0xf3eb81…
10-13 18:08:24	Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xa47e1e…
10-13 18:08:24	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by november 30	Yes	SELL	40	9¢	$4	0xa05632…
10-13 18:08:24	will texas instruments txn q3 analog revenue be above 20261008120026000 4pt25b	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x19ff36…
10-13 18:08:22	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-12 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x50d8e9…
10-13 18:08:22	Will PNC (PNC) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x44d3df…
10-13 18:08:22	Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x3f843f…
10-13 18:08:22	will google googl q3 cloud revenue be above 20261008120049000 31b	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x2a8b8c…
10-13 18:08:22	will riyadh airport reopen by october 20 2026	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x0760fc…
10-13 18:08:21	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xe77540…
10-13 18:08:21	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xd3f555…
10-13 18:08:21	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xa7df18…
10-13 18:08:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x3f9549…
10-13 18:08:19	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xfe88c0…
10-13 18:08:19	will lockheed martin lmt q3 total backlog be above 20261008120029000 180b	Yes	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xe2e07c…
10-13 18:08:19	Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x94f1e5…
10-13 18:08:18	spy closes above 785 on october 13 2026	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xb5e905…
10-13 18:08:18	spy closes above 765 on october 13 2026	No	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x9d1c79…
10-13 18:08:18	Will Gintautas Kindurys win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?	Yes	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0x23e99d…
10-13 18:08:18	Will Anna Kindy win the next North Island British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x2259d9…
10-13 18:08:16	Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x990501…
10-13 18:08:16	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-05 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	19	22¢	$4	0x2c3085…
10-13 18:08:16	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	42¢	$3	0x0e769a…
10-13 18:04:31	Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0xc5f253…
10-13 18:04:07	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x5b9f0b…
10-13 17:48:58	us x yemen ceasefire continues through october 18	No	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0xad661f…
10-13 17:46:15	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-06 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x49a800…
10-13 17:44:03	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by november 30	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x49302e…
10-13 17:38:34	will ap call us house control by november 3	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xb5afc5…
10-13 17:33:04	will ap call us house control by november 3	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x16a7b6…
10-13 17:10:10	will blackstone bx q3 total assets under management aum be above 20261008120027000 1pt38t	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x616699…
10-13 17:01:04	Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xba2fe0…
10-13 16:54:24	Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xcfb1e8…
10-13 16:45:40	trump approval rating at least 37pt8 on october 16 2026	No	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xce67f9…
10-13 16:42:37	will ap call us house control by november 4	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x12bf3d…
10-13 16:32:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x5c9cae…
10-13 16:29:16	trump approval rating at least 37pt8 on october 16 2026	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x1d2d75…
10-13 16:29:10	trump approval rating at least 37pt8 on october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	57¢	$1	0xb24c37…
10-13 16:29:10	trump approval rating at least 37pt8 on october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	19	57¢	$11	0x599d3d…
10-13 16:27:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 15?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xa68e97…
10-13 16:27:39	will google googl q3 cloud revenue be above 20261008120049000 31b	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x48d3f7…
10-13 16:23:07	will texas instruments txn q3 analog revenue be above 20261008120026000 4pt25b	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x0c7bce…
10-13 16:12:33	will nextera energy nee q3 operating revenue be above 20261008120020000 7pt5b	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x8db0e4…
10-13 16:09:48	will nextera energy nee q3 operating revenue be above 20261008120020000 7pt5b	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xa124c0…
10-13 15:55:57	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x2778ca…
10-13 15:55:54	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	No	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0x55e22b…
10-13 15:55:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xf1789e…
10-13 15:49:04	will ap call us house control by november 4	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xa6c09d…
10-13 15:34:13	Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xbe9421…
10-13 15:27:59	trump approval rating at least 37pt2 on october 16 2026	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd8b937…
10-13 15:18:04	Will MrBeast's next video get between 270 and 280 million views on week 2?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x9adfb8…
10-13 15:05:47	will ewy reach 174 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x17cb03…
10-13 15:00:37	Will PNC (PNC) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xac4c2a…
10-13 14:58:01	will riyadh airport reopen by october 20 2026	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x50a423…
10-13 14:51:05	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xc802c9…
10-13 14:41:10	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0x4a34b4…
10-13 14:39:55	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x535838…
10-13 14:36:04	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-12 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xcabe50…
10-13 14:28:16	will nextera energy nee q3 operating revenue be above 20261008120020000 7pt5b	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x5e2ffa…
10-13 14:27:07	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Sinaloa Congress election?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x4bd8d0…
10-13 14:26:13	trump approval rating at least 37pt2 on october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x15d8a1…
10-13 14:18:46	trump approval rating at least 37pt2 on october 16 2026	No	BUY	15	17¢	$3	0x9b486d…
10-13 14:17:46	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x9d3240…
10-13 14:13:34	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chiapas Congress election?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x3cf430…
10-13 14:13:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xfb201a…
10-13 14:10:25	trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x81789c…
10-13 14:04:28	will blackstone bx q3 total assets under management aum be above 20261008120027000 1pt38t	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xc6cea9…