Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 50%-55%?
open
Total volume
$5,672
$888 in 24h
Trades
361
Unique wallets
84
Liquidity
$16,669
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-20
last 10-27 10:11
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-16.7¢
(top1%: 4% YES on $1.1K
vs crowd: 21% YES on $4.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 33 | $314 | $2.4K | $2.0K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 29 | $434 | $1.0K | $594 |
| 🐟 Fish | 21 | $175 | $152 | +$23 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 1 | $5 | — | +$5 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 22 | $46 | $1.1K | $1.0K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $48 | $66 | $18 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $208 | $32 | +$176 |
| Below median | 5 | $8 | $53 | $45 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $31 | $122 | $91 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 14 | $192 | $297 | $105 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 24 | $286 | $1.9K | $1.6K |
| unranked | 2 | $109 | — | +$109 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +818 | $637 | $637 | 17 | 10-26 23:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | +789 | $96 | $96 | 9 | 09-22 04:17 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +637 | $131 | $131 | 13 | 10-13 18:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | +534 | $101 | $120 | 3 | 10-27 10:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xb502…30b9 | Yes | +488 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 09-22 15:49 |
| Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | +187 | $155 | $155 | 4 | 09-27 00:01 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +159 | $129 | $129 | 2 | 09-22 15:49 |
| Velvety-Burn 0x0380…073d | No | +148 | $115 | $115 | 1 | 09-22 15:49 |
| Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | +135 | $107 | $107 | 4 | 09-22 15:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x154c…658e | No | +124 | $104 | $104 | 3 | 09-21 23:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | Yes | +110 | $21 | $21 | 1 | 10-26 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | No | +110 | $89 | $89 | 1 | 10-26 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +108 | $87 | $87 | 4 | 10-26 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +108 | $24 | $24 | 4 | 10-26 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +94 | $84 | $84 | 5 | 09-06 09:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | Yes | +84 | $8 | $56 | 4 | 10-26 23:55 |
| Writhing-Round 0x1583…bdde | Yes | +80 | $16 | $20 | 2 | 10-26 23:55 |
| Writhing-Round 0x1583…bdde | No | +80 | $65 | $65 | 1 | 10-26 23:55 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +77 | $62 | $348 | 20 | 10-26 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | +70 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 10-13 12:51 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +69 | $62 | $62 | 5 | 09-20 04:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +69 | $61 | $61 | 4 | 09-22 04:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +60 | $13 | $13 | 3 | 10-14 12:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | Yes | +60 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-10 00:16 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +60 | $49 | $81 | 3 | 10-26 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | No | +60 | $46 | $46 | 1 | 10-09 21:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +60 | $47 | $47 | 3 | 10-14 12:34 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +59 | $47 | $47 | 3 | 10-26 23:55 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +55 | $49 | $49 | 4 | 09-06 09:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +53 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 10-10 06:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | +53 | $44 | $247 | 10 | 10-26 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf43…b321 | No | +50 | $41 | $41 | 2 | 09-20 10:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +48 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 10-26 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +48 | $40 | $83 | 4 | 10-26 23:55 |
| Fuzzy-Draft 0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | +47 | $9 | $13 | 6 | 09-22 15:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +41 | $32 | $32 | 3 | 10-26 23:56 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +40 | $5 | $5 | 4 | 09-22 04:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | Yes | +40 | $11 | $11 | 2 | 10-12 06:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | No | +40 | $30 | $30 | 2 | 10-12 06:51 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +40 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 09-22 04:16 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +40 | $33 | $33 | 2 | 10-10 18:07 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +28 | $22 | $22 | 2 | 09-21 19:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x0629…501d | No | +25 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 09-22 15:49 |
| Harsh-Macro 0x511f…cbe1 | No | +25 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 09-22 15:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xad88…c176 | No | +25 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 09-11 10:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-13 12:51 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +20 | $2 | $39 | 12 | 10-26 23:56 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | +20 | $7 | $15 | 3 | 10-10 00:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-26 23:55 |
| Bold-Health 0x8728…0882 | Yes | +12 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 09-24 22:17 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +1 | -$1 | $10 | 7 | 10-13 12:51 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 10:11:32 | (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 24¢ | $10 | 0xb28ccd… |
| 10-27 10:11:32 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | No | SELL | 40 | 76¢ | $30 | 0xb28ccd… |
| 10-26 23:56:47 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x06b0ef… |
| 10-26 23:56:47 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x06b0ef… |
| 10-26 23:56:41 | (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 24¢ | $14 | 0xb0a8ac… |
| 10-26 23:56:41 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 60 | 76¢ | $46 | 0xb0a8ac… |
| 10-26 23:55:27 | Writhing-Round 0x1583…bdde | Yes | SELL | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x122834… |
| 10-26 23:55:27 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x122834… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | Yes | BUY | 110 | 20¢ | $21 | 0x6afd89… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 15 | 79¢ | $12 | 0x978ebb… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 24 | 82¢ | $20 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | No | BUY | 110 | 81¢ | $89 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 60 | 82¢ | $49 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 58 | 18¢ | $11 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | BUY | 514 | 19¢ | $96 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xb324a0… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 40 | 82¢ | $33 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 4 | 79¢ | $3 | 0x7dbbe2… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 20¢ | $3 | 0xb324a0… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x7dbbe2… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 40 | 21¢ | $8 | 0x9d5213… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x7dbbe2… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | Writhing-Round 0x1583…bdde | No | BUY | 80 | 81¢ | $65 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | Writhing-Round 0x1583…bdde | Yes | BUY | 90 | 20¢ | $18 | 0x978ebb… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 20¢ | $15 | 0x978ebb… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 40 | 81¢ | $32 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 110 | 20¢ | $21 | 0x6afd89… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 40 | 79¢ | $32 | 0x9d5213… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 63 | 81¢ | $51 | 0xdd3106… |
| 10-26 23:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xb324a0… |
| 10-24 00:44:48 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0xc23e80… |
| 10-24 00:44:48 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xc23e80… |
| 10-24 00:44:47 | (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 20¢ | $8 | 0xcc7e85… |
| 10-24 00:44:47 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xcc7e85… |
| 10-24 00:44:47 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xcc7e85… |
| 10-24 00:39:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x1155fa… |
| 10-24 00:39:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x1155fa… |
| 10-22 20:22:03 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x7e1197… |
| 10-22 20:22:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x7e1197… |
| 10-22 18:21:14 | (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | Yes | BUY | 206 | 16¢ | $32 | 0xb15e9e… |
| 10-22 18:21:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 86 | 84¢ | $72 | 0xb15e9e… |
| 10-22 18:21:14 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 16¢ | $16 | 0xb15e9e… |
| 10-22 18:21:14 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xb15e9e… |
| 10-22 01:14:05 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x16f6f8… |
| 10-22 01:14:05 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0x16f6f8… |
| 10-19 12:11:48 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 24 | 77¢ | $19 | 0xa55103… |
| 10-19 12:11:48 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 24 | 77¢ | $19 | 0xa63048… |
| 10-19 12:11:48 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 23¢ | $5 | 0xa55103… |
| 10-19 12:11:48 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 16 | 77¢ | $12 | 0xa63048… |
| 10-19 12:11:48 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | No | SELL | 40 | 77¢ | $31 | 0xa63048… |
| 10-15 08:17:38 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0xa3fe39… |
| 10-15 08:17:38 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0xa3fe39… |
| 10-15 08:17:26 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | No | BUY | 40 | 79¢ | $31 | 0x0fe0ad… |
| 10-15 08:17:26 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x0fe0ad… |
| 10-15 08:17:26 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 21¢ | $6 | 0x0fe0ad… |
| 10-15 08:17:26 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | No | SELL | 151 | 79¢ | $119 | 0x0fe0ad… |
| 10-15 08:17:26 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x0fe0ad… |
| 10-15 08:17:26 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 49 | 78¢ | $39 | 0x0fe0ad… |
| 10-14 12:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x8bfff3… |
| 10-14 12:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | No | SELL | 17 | 83¢ | $14 | 0x8bfff3… |
| 10-14 12:34:09 | (anonymous) 0x7a8e…89d8 | No | BUY | 24 | 83¢ | $20 | 0xe43c61… |
| 10-14 12:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xe43c61… |
| 10-14 12:34:09 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x8bfff3… |
| 10-14 12:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | No | SELL | 4 | 83¢ | $3 | 0xe43c61… |
| 10-13 21:48:39 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x328717… |
| 10-13 21:48:39 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x328717… |
| 10-13 18:08:21 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x3f9549… |
| 10-13 18:08:21 | (anonymous) 0x0d18…f157 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x3f9549… |
| 10-13 14:13:35 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x84fa19… |
| 10-13 14:13:35 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 25¢ | $2 | 0x84fa19… |
| 10-13 14:13:35 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 158 | 25¢ | $39 | 0x84fa19… |
| 10-13 14:13:35 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 25¢ | $25 | 0x84fa19… |
| 10-13 14:13:35 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 25¢ | $7 | 0x84fa19… |
| 10-13 14:13:14 | (anonymous) 0x0d18…f157 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0xfb201a… |
| 10-13 14:13:14 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0xfb201a… |
| 10-13 12:51:28 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0xce709b… |
| 10-13 12:51:28 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | SELL | 1 | 26¢ | $0 | 0xce709b… |
| 10-13 12:51:28 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 26¢ | $6 | 0xce709b… |
| 10-13 12:51:16 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | BUY | 281 | 22¢ | $63 | 0x25b242… |
| 10-13 12:51:16 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | SELL | 11 | 26¢ | $3 | 0x3b8e28… |
| 10-13 12:51:16 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x25b242… |
| 10-13 12:51:16 | (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x25b242… |
| 10-13 12:51:16 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | No | BUY | 151 | 78¢ | $117 | 0x25b242… |
| 10-13 12:51:16 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x25b242… |
| 10-13 12:51:16 | (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0x3b8e28… |
| 10-13 12:51:16 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 9 | 26¢ | $2 | 0x3b8e28… |
| 10-13 12:51:16 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | BUY | 70 | 78¢ | $54 | 0x25b242… |
| 10-12 06:53:49 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xeb5a66… |
| 10-12 06:53:49 | (anonymous) 0x8268…e7fd | Yes | SELL | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xeb5a66… |
| 10-12 06:51:55 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 27¢ | $8 | 0x63fb58… |
| 10-12 06:51:55 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | BUY | 20 | 73¢ | $15 | 0xacb39b… |
| 10-12 06:51:55 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | SELL | 30 | 72¢ | $21 | 0xa1e1c7… |
| 10-12 06:51:55 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0xacb39b… |
| 10-12 06:51:55 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 27¢ | $14 | 0xa1e1c7… |
| 10-12 06:51:55 | (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | No | BUY | 20 | 73¢ | $15 | 0xf9b270… |
| 10-12 06:51:55 | (anonymous) 0x8268…e7fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 28¢ | $6 | 0xa1e1c7… |
| 10-12 06:51:55 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 20 | 72¢ | $14 | 0xa1e1c7… |
| 10-12 06:51:55 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 28¢ | $6 | 0xa1e1c7… |