Realized P&L
-$679
Unrealized P&L
+$86
Hit rate
2.5%
Resolved
191
Trades
4,879
lifetime
Volume
$119.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$2.36K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-06
last 10-27 22:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 22 days
Categories
Other
51% 5% -$483
Politics
36% 3% -$122
Sports
5% 0% -$3
Tech
4% 33% -$2
Crypto
3% 0% -$68
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 742 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? Yes +200 $153 86¢ $171 +$18 10-13 10:12
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? No +250 $215 64¢ $161 -$54 10-18 01:04
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +200 $30 59¢ $117 +$87 10-11 21:49
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027? Yes +180 $115 58¢ $104 -$11 10-11 13:30
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? Yes +250 $36 36¢ $89 +$52 10-18 01:04
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +100 $83 87¢ $87 +$4 10-08 15:54
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +100 $84 85¢ $85 +$1 10-09 20:03
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No +100 $87 84¢ $84 -$3 10-12 22:53
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes +100 $81 84¢ $84 +$2 10-12 05:50
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? No +200 $177 41¢ $83 -$94 10-11 21:49
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No +100 $62 82¢ $82 +$20 10-14 01:29
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +100 $86 82¢ $82 -$4 10-13 19:17
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +100 $76 80¢ $80 +$4 10-13 11:56
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes +100 $76 79¢ $79 +$3 10-13 08:38
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +100 $77 76¢ $76 $0 10-13 06:50
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? No +99 $76 76¢ $75 -$1 10-10 10:22
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes +100 $66 74¢ $74 +$8 10-12 13:15
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes +100 $74 70¢ $70 -$4 10-12 17:37
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +70 $63 98¢ $68 +$6 10-17 10:27
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +100 $58 66¢ $66 +$9 10-11 05:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +100 $65 64¢ $64 $0 10-10 04:35
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +108 $71 55¢ $60 -$11 10-17 16:03
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +80 $52 74¢ $60 +$8 10-17 02:28
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes +100 $20 56¢ $56 +$37 10-12 14:37
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +60 $56 90¢ $54 -$2 10-11 23:45
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +100 $62 53¢ $53 -$9 10-12 12:47
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +60 $38 82¢ $49 +$11 10-07 19:20
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +108 $38 45¢ $49 +$11 10-17 16:03
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? No +60 $51 81¢ $49 -$2 10-07 18:56
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +60 $47 80¢ $48 +$0 10-12 11:18