Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 400,000 and 430,000?
open
Total volume
$4,493
$590 in 24h
Trades
410
Unique wallets
100
Liquidity
$151
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-25
last 11-04 09:53
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-8.9¢
(top1%: 17% YES on $718
vs crowd: 26% YES on $3.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 37 | $462 | $1.7K | $1.2K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 31 | $260 | $404 | $144 |
| 🐟 Fish | 25 | $197 | $503 | $306 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | $10 | $7 | +$3 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 26 | $125 | $593 | $468 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $3 | $5 | $2 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $2 | $8 | $6 |
| Median | 1 | — | $5 | $5 |
| Below median | 12 | $104 | $417 | $313 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $85 | $51 | +$33 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 15 | $90 | $265 | $174 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 29 | $521 | $1.3K | $745 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +758 | $228 | $228 | 30 | 10-30 21:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x1d99…465f | Yes | +394 | $46 | $77 | 5 | 11-03 18:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x227d…901a | No | +339 | $320 | $320 | 1 | 11-03 18:10 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +323 | $239 | $239 | 6 | 10-18 03:40 |
| Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | +175 | $112 | $112 | 3 | 10-30 18:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x6ffa…ebc5 | Yes | +168 | $38 | $38 | 6 | 11-01 17:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x2128…f203 | Yes | +165 | -$58 | $250 | 3 | 11-02 22:03 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +152 | $47 | $70 | 9 | 11-03 18:10 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | +152 | $115 | $115 | 6 | 11-01 17:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | +131 | $71 | $71 | 5 | 09-16 10:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +120 | $0 | $3 | 7 | 11-03 18:10 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +120 | $91 | $91 | 1 | 10-30 18:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | Yes | +100 | $22 | $31 | 4 | 10-18 14:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | No | +100 | $82 | $82 | 1 | 10-11 02:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xe3a0…5793 | Yes | +99 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 11-03 18:10 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +99 | $71 | $71 | 4 | 10-30 22:16 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | +96 | $64 | $64 | 7 | 10-29 00:18 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +92 | $51 | $51 | 5 | 10-22 11:00 |
| Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | +74 | $51 | $51 | 4 | 10-28 15:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +70 | $40 | $40 | 3 | 09-25 17:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +67 | $36 | $36 | 4 | 10-22 11:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x227d…901a | Yes | +60 | $18 | $18 | 4 | 10-22 11:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +54 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 10-30 18:53 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +50 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 09-15 19:25 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom 0x0787…0ca3 | Yes | +46 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-03 19:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xd85b…ccf4 | No | +45 | $31 | $51 | 4 | 10-27 10:21 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +40 | $24 | $24 | 3 | 10-22 14:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xa56f…0e2b | Yes | +40 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 10-30 22:16 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | +40 | $26 | $26 | 2 | 10-25 09:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | +40 | $38 | $49 | 4 | 11-03 19:56 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +38 | $26 | $26 | 3 | 10-02 02:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | +38 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 09-16 10:49 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +38 | $29 | $29 | 2 | 10-02 02:56 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +31 | $8 | $8 | 4 | 10-02 03:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +28 | $8 | $9 | 4 | 10-02 02:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +28 | $21 | $21 | 2 | 10-02 02:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x8b92…6866 | No | +26 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 11-04 09:53 |
| Putrid-Penny-Shine 0xe60a…a633 | Yes | +26 | -$1 | $1 | 8 | 11-04 09:53 |
| Winged-Layer 0x54db…0174 | Yes | +25 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 09-04 17:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x0518…5da2 | No | +25 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 10-01 08:07 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | +22 | $12 | $12 | 3 | 10-24 01:21 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 10-27 00:35 |
| Acceptable-Asset 0x0032…731a | Yes | +20 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 10-26 08:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | No | +20 | $16 | $24 | 3 | 10-21 07:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 11-02 22:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-12 14:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x30fb…7db4 | Yes | +20 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 09-16 10:49 |
| This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-28 15:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +20 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-03 18:10 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | +20 | $5 | $27 | 7 | 10-18 14:58 |
| Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 09-25 17:22 |
| This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 10-28 15:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +20 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 09-10 13:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 09-05 15:19 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +20 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 09-20 16:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 11-02 22:03 |
| Acceptable-Asset 0x0032…731a | No | +20 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 10-26 08:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | Yes | +18 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 10-24 01:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | +17 | $13 | $37 | 6 | 10-11 02:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | +17 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 10-24 01:21 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-04 09:53:10 | (anonymous) 0x8b92…6866 | No | BUY | 26 | 100¢ | $26 | 0x1a2a76… |
| 11-04 09:53:10 | Putrid-Penny-Shine 0xe60a…a633 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x1a2a76… |
| 11-03 19:56:34 | Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom 0x0787…0ca3 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x7d80b2… |
| 11-03 19:56:34 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x7d80b2… |
| 11-03 19:56:34 | Putrid-Penny-Shine 0xe60a…a633 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7d80b2… |
| 11-03 18:26:01 | Putrid-Penny-Shine 0xe60a…a633 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x4ecae6… |
| 11-03 18:26:01 | (anonymous) 0x1d99…465f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x4ecae6… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x620f63… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | Putrid-Penny-Shine 0xe60a…a633 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x509415… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x509415… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | SELL | 186 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x620f63… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | (anonymous) 0xd85b…ccf4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x620f63… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x620f63… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | Putrid-Penny-Shine 0xe60a…a633 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x620f63… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x620f63… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 40 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x620f63… |
| 11-03 18:10:40 | Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x620f63… |
| 11-03 18:10:37 | (anonymous) 0x227d…901a | No | BUY | 339 | 95¢ | $320 | 0xa602a5… |
| 11-03 18:10:37 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 6¢ | $11 | 0xa602a5… |
| 11-03 18:10:37 | (anonymous) 0xe3a0…5793 | Yes | BUY | 99 | 5¢ | $5 | 0xa602a5… |
| 11-03 18:10:37 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xa602a5… |
| 11-03 18:10:37 | (anonymous) 0xd85b…ccf4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xa602a5… |
| 11-03 05:01:21 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 60 | 81¢ | $49 | 0x03f817… |
| 11-03 05:01:21 | (anonymous) 0x1d99…465f | Yes | SELL | 60 | 19¢ | $11 | 0x03f817… |
| 11-02 22:33:15 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xace0d0… |
| 11-02 22:33:15 | (anonymous) 0x1d99…465f | Yes | SELL | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xace0d0… |
| 11-02 22:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x1d99…465f | Yes | BUY | 439 | 14¢ | $60 | 0x776524… |
| 11-02 22:03:01 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 60 | 86¢ | $52 | 0x776524… |
| 11-02 22:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x2128…f203 | Yes | SELL | 263 | 14¢ | $36 | 0x776524… |
| 11-02 22:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x776524… |
| 11-02 22:03:01 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x776524… |
| 11-02 22:03:01 | (anonymous) 0xd85b…ccf4 | Yes | SELL | 76 | 14¢ | $10 | 0x776524… |
| 11-02 16:16:07 | (anonymous) 0x1d99…465f | Yes | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xd2075d… |
| 11-02 16:16:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xd2075d… |
| 11-01 17:16:33 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 0 | 79¢ | $0 | 0x24d3c2… |
| 11-01 17:16:33 | (anonymous) 0x6ffa…ebc5 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 21¢ | $0 | 0x24d3c2… |
| 11-01 11:23:10 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xaf5cc3… |
| 11-01 11:23:10 | Fair-Tan 0x43cb…84df | No | BUY | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0xaf5cc3… |
| 10-31 14:07:25 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 10¢ | $0 | 0xfe10a3… |
| 10-31 14:07:25 | Fuzzy-Draft 0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | BUY | 0 | 10¢ | $0 | 0xfe10a3… |
| 10-30 22:16:10 | (anonymous) 0xa56f…0e2b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x66d82a… |
| 10-30 22:16:10 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 18 | 87¢ | $15 | 0x66d82a… |
| 10-30 22:16:10 | (anonymous) 0xb02e…a754 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 13¢ | $0 | 0x66d82a… |
| 10-30 22:00:30 | (anonymous) 0xb02e…a754 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x77714e… |
| 10-30 22:00:30 | (anonymous) 0xa56f…0e2b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x77714e… |
| 10-30 21:53:43 | (anonymous) 0xb02e…a754 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x3d9a12… |
| 10-30 21:53:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x3d9a12… |
| 10-30 19:13:16 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xd69ceb… |
| 10-30 19:13:16 | (anonymous) 0xdaa1…2fdb | Yes | SELL | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xd69ceb… |
| 10-30 18:54:16 | (anonymous) 0x6ffa…ebc5 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 22¢ | $9 | 0x79cf12… |
| 10-30 18:54:16 | Vibrant-Minority-Lace 0x74aa…2c3f | Yes | SELL | 41 | 22¢ | $9 | 0x79cf12… |
| 10-30 18:53:46 | (anonymous) 0x6ffa…ebc5 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x06ddad… |
| 10-30 18:53:46 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x06ddad… |
| 10-30 18:53:39 | (anonymous) 0xd85b…ccf4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x656547… |
| 10-30 18:53:39 | (anonymous) 0x6ffa…ebc5 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 22¢ | $7 | 0xc14d10… |
| 10-30 18:53:39 | (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x656547… |
| 10-30 18:53:39 | (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 22¢ | $7 | 0xc14d10… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | BUY | 120 | 76¢ | $91 | 0xc0f0b7… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 24¢ | $12 | 0xbdacd8… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 0 | 70¢ | $0 | 0xacd742… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 23¢ | $9 | 0xb2dbef… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | Vibrant-Minority-Lace 0x74aa…2c3f | Yes | BUY | 41 | 23¢ | $9 | 0xb2dbef… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 0 | 70¢ | $0 | 0xacd742… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 120 | 24¢ | $29 | 0xc0f0b7… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | (anonymous) 0xd85b…ccf4 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 24¢ | $2 | 0xbdacd8… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 80 | 76¢ | $61 | 0xbdacd8… |
| 10-30 18:53:36 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0xbdacd8… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | (anonymous) 0xb02e…a754 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 24¢ | $7 | 0x1abdf4… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x737e9c… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x737e9c… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | (anonymous) 0xd85b…ccf4 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 24¢ | $3 | 0xd8ed03… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 45 | 76¢ | $34 | 0xd8ed03… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | (anonymous) 0xdaa1…2fdb | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x1abdf4… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 24¢ | $8 | 0xd8ed03… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | BUY | 125 | 76¢ | $95 | 0x1abdf4… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 66 | 24¢ | $16 | 0x1abdf4… |
| 10-30 18:53:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 8 | 24¢ | $2 | 0x1abdf4… |
| 10-29 00:18:28 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 19 | 69¢ | $13 | 0x86ddcd… |
| 10-29 00:18:28 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 7 | 69¢ | $5 | 0x86ddcd… |
| 10-29 00:17:34 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 25 | 70¢ | $18 | 0xc9ddb5… |
| 10-29 00:17:34 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 25 | 70¢ | $18 | 0xc9ddb5… |
| 10-28 15:16:07 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | No | BUY | 20 | 69¢ | $14 | 0xec520f… |
| 10-28 15:16:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 31¢ | $6 | 0xec520f… |
| 10-28 15:16:05 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 20 | 69¢ | $14 | 0x50c859… |
| 10-28 15:16:05 | These-Woodshed 0xd7b6…2ccd | No | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x75754a… |
| 10-28 15:16:05 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 31¢ | $6 | 0x50c859… |
| 10-28 15:16:05 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 31¢ | $0 | 0x75754a… |
| 10-28 12:05:55 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 36¢ | $7 | 0xf5091a… |
| 10-28 12:05:55 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 8 | 64¢ | $5 | 0xf5091a… |
| 10-27 10:21:05 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 34¢ | $23 | 0x142392… |
| 10-27 10:21:05 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x142392… |
| 10-27 10:21:05 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 41 | 66¢ | $27 | 0x142392… |
| 10-27 10:21:05 | (anonymous) 0xd85b…ccf4 | No | BUY | 20 | 66¢ | $13 | 0x142392… |
| 10-27 00:35:18 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 28¢ | $6 | 0x22c378… |
| 10-27 00:35:18 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 20 | 72¢ | $14 | 0x22c378… |
| 10-27 00:35:18 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 19 | 66¢ | $13 | 0xa9609c… |
| 10-27 00:35:18 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 19 | 66¢ | $13 | 0xa9609c… |
| 10-26 10:14:33 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x7b87cb… |
| 10-26 10:14:33 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x7b87cb… |
| 10-26 10:14:33 | (anonymous) 0x7b89…ddae | No | BUY | 6 | 67¢ | $4 | 0x7b87cb… |