Realized P&L
+$38.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$15.4K
Hit rate
89.2%
Resolved
47,689
Trades
362,104
lifetime
Volume
$15.9M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$44
Open exposure
$447.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-10
last 10-27 05:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 198 days
Categories
Other
65% 81% +$7,326
Politics
22% 85% +$17,775
Sports
10% 79% +$19,276
Tech
1% 78% -$11,145
Crypto
1% 53% +$4,986
Pop-Culture
1% 87% +$565
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 5830 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +51,629 $51,300 100¢ $51.4K +$148 10-26 22:14
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +39,461 $39,188 100¢ $39.4K +$233 10-26 17:13
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +22,320 $22,210 99¢ $22.1K -$102 10-25 10:56
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +21,537 $17,920 100¢ $21.5K +$3,585 10-21 23:44
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +20,328 $18,832 97¢ $19.7K +$836 10-26 20:43
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +28,383 $18,558 66¢ $18.9K +$317 10-26 21:28
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +19,519 $15,147 94¢ $18.4K +$3,298 10-26 20:58
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +14,378 $14,236 99¢ $14.3K +$27 10-27 00:00
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +14,220 $13,990 100¢ $14.2K +$195 09-15 12:29
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +30,038 $18,127 46¢ $13.7K -$4,430 10-23 15:15
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +13,636 $13,581 100¢ $13.6K +$41 09-15 12:29
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +13,573 $13,476 100¢ $13.6K +$76 09-11 23:07
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? No +12,629 $10,743 98¢ $12.4K +$1,684 10-24 16:12
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +16,270 $13,436 76¢ $12.4K -$1,063 10-25 23:33
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +22,690 $9,530 55¢ $12.4K +$2,836 10-26 00:03
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +12,259 $12,232 100¢ $12.2K +$9 09-06 18:25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +13,002 $6,521 91¢ $11.9K +$5,362 10-25 19:23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +11,935 $11,677 97¢ $11.6K -$58 10-25 07:24
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +10,622 $10,583 100¢ $10.6K +$23 09-07 06:15
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No +10,362 $8,887 99¢ $10.2K +$1,336 09-09 17:45
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +15,064 $8,440 66¢ $10.0K +$1,578 10-26 22:37
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +29,695 $10,647 34¢ $9.9K -$699 10-26 21:28
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +9,949 $9,718 100¢ $9.9K +$186 10-26 12:29
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +9,910 $9,405 100¢ $9.9K +$490 09-01 18:36
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +9,930 $9,750 99¢ $9.9K +$115 10-25 07:24
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +15,095 $10,466 60¢ $9.0K -$1,477 10-26 18:14
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +8,971 $8,937 100¢ $8.9K -$7 10-25 19:23
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +8,918 $8,866 100¢ $8.9K +$17 10-27 04:01
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +8,660 $7,804 98¢ $8.5K +$712 10-27 06:14
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +8,477 $8,300 100¢ $8.5K +$152 10-25 23:51