Realized P&L
-$8.93K
Unrealized P&L
+$201
Hit rate
28.1%
Resolved
7,146
Trades
50,682
lifetime
Volume
$599.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$2.89K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-15
last 10-28 12:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 74 days
Categories
Other
51% 10% -$7,351
Politics
22% 5% -$1,852
Crypto
21% 70% +$695
Sports
3% 4% -$161
Tech
2% 5% -$211
Pop-Culture
0% 5% -$47
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
74 active days in 12wk • peak 2055 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No +200 $184 92¢ $184 +$0 10-18 06:33
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? No +200 $167 86¢ $173 +$6 10-21 06:02
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No +140 $127 98¢ $138 +$11 09-24 10:46
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +130 $114 90¢ $116 +$2 10-21 00:45
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +163 $91 66¢ $109 +$18 09-28 15:11
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +130 $99 81¢ $105 +$6 09-24 12:00
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No +120 $99 84¢ $102 +$3 10-22 01:03
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31? No +100 $91 99¢ $99 +$8 09-26 06:47
Will Florida Gators win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No +100 $94 99¢ $99 +$4 09-28 04:17
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +100 $94 97¢ $97 +$2 10-17 11:35
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No +100 $90 96¢ $96 +$5 09-24 15:15
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +170 $73 56¢ $95 +$23 09-27 23:36
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? No +100 $82 94¢ $94 +$12 09-26 14:51
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? No — +100 $92 93¢ $93 +$1 10-15 17:55
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No +100 $88 93¢ $93 +$5 09-23 13:34
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No +100 $91 92¢ $92 +$1 10-19 13:28
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +100 $86 92¢ $92 +$6 09-23 22:57
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No +100 $81 90¢ $91 +$10 10-19 09:57
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? No +100 $85 87¢ $87 +$3 10-24 16:36
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? Yes +100 $71 86¢ $86 +$15 09-24 23:48
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +100 $69 80¢ $80 +$11 10-07 20:52
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +100 $92 80¢ $80 -$12 09-24 14:14
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +90 $26 85¢ $77 +$50 09-21 20:13
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? No +100 $77 76¢ $77 $0 10-26 19:56
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? No +100 $56 75¢ $75 +$18 10-08 00:34
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? No +100 $79 75¢ $75 -$4 09-23 10:29
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +170 $98 44¢ $75 -$23 09-27 23:36
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +90 $67 79¢ $71 +$5 10-14 19:18
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +119 $57 57¢ $68 +$11 10-06 05:25
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Yes +70 $64 95¢ $67 +$3 09-28 15:19