Realized P&L (30d)
-$3.84K
Unrealized P&L
+$679
Hit rate
36.4%
Resolved (30d)
3,801
Trades (30d)
13,219
52,820 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$254.8K
$634.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$4.19K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-15
last 11-08 17:11
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 88 days
Categories
Other
48% 9% -$9,269
Crypto
25% 69% +$333
Politics
20% 5% -$2,609
Sports
3% 5% -$274
Tech
2% 4% -$282
Pop-Culture
0% 5% -$47
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 2055 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3% or more? No +195 $167 97¢ $189 +$22 10-24 18:56
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No +200 $184 93¢ $186 +$2 10-18 06:33
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? No +200 $167 92¢ $184 +$17 10-21 06:02
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027? No +180 $161 90¢ $163 +$2 10-26 20:45
Will Mariana di Girolamo be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? No +200 $143 81¢ $162 +$19 10-23 23:47
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31? No +160 $149 98¢ $157 +$8 10-24 18:09
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +163 $91 95¢ $155 +$64 09-28 15:11
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +185 $91 82¢ $153 +$62 10-03 12:47
Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +200 $130 76¢ $152 +$22 10-17 13:32
Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +150 $134 99¢ $149 +$15 10-27 18:10
Will Inde Navarrette be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? Yes +220 $113 67¢ $147 +$34 10-18 23:11
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? No +280 $125 52¢ $147 +$22 10-26 19:07
Will "Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? No +150 $123 95¢ $142 +$20 10-20 05:13
Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch? No +150 $138 95¢ $142 +$4 10-20 22:47
Will Maura Higgins win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35? No +140 $119 100¢ $140 +$21 09-28 18:50
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +150 $134 93¢ $140 +$5 10-25 00:10
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +170 $73 80¢ $135 +$63 09-27 23:36
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +280 $157 48¢ $133 -$24 10-26 19:07
GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? No +260 $163 51¢ $133 -$30 10-21 07:08
Will Trump nationalize elections? No +136 $124 94¢ $128 +$4 10-23 18:08
GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? Yes +260 $100 49¢ $127 +$28 10-21 07:08
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 10%-15%? Yes +151 $40 84¢ $126 +$86 10-25 01:12
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? No +141 $18 88¢ $124 +$106 09-27 02:48
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +130 $99 94¢ $123 +$24 09-24 12:00
Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No +120 $113 97¢ $117 +$4 10-23 15:39
Will "Forgotten Island" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? No +200 $105 58¢ $116 +$11 10-26 22:04
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +130 $114 85¢ $111 -$3 10-21 00:45
Will The Red Clay Strays win Vocal Group of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? Yes +136 $95 78¢ $105 +$10 10-22 20:16
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 370,000 and 400,000? Yes +120 $41 87¢ $104 +$64 10-24 04:18
Will Gears of War: E-Day win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards? No +110 $102 93¢ $102 +$0 10-19 16:14