Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$867

Unrealized P&L

+$371

Hit rate

73.6%

Resolved

147

Trades

450

lifetime

Volume

$35.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$80

Open exposure

$2.24K

6 positions

First seen

2026-08-18

last 10-26 22:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Other

78% 70% +$80

Politics

16% 75% -$140

Tech

6% 47% -$802

Crypto

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	+1,410	$1,027	100¢	$1.4K	+$381	10-26 21:15
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	+500	$457	100¢	$500	+$42	09-23 18:46
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+200	$166	82¢	$163	-$3	09-10 21:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$79	84¢	$84	+$4	08-19 11:40
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+200	$100	24¢	$49	-$51	09-08 09:45
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	+199	$40	18¢	$37	-$3	09-20 18:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	11	$2.6K	1,375	1,375	+0	Yes	+$46	10-23 04:03
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	7	$1.0K	1,410	0	+1,410	open	—	10-26 21:15
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$998	513	513	+0	open	—	10-26 16:10
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?	3	$784	841	0	+841	Yes	+$57	09-25 11:43
Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	6	$772	1,056	0	+1,056	No	-$772	10-04 05:14
Will Summit be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	1	$750	833	0	+833	No	+$83	09-29 16:30
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$705	500	500	+0	open	—	09-28 14:15
Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 50 Warzone deaths during the marathon?	2	$675	754	0	+754	No	+$79	09-04 16:09
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	8	$666	569	569	+0	Yes	-$62	09-01 17:14
Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$659	359	359	+0	No	+$59	10-26 17:51
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?	2	$640	692	0	+692	Yes	+$52	09-26 08:31
Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?	5	$618	670	0	+670	Yes	+$51	09-20 17:14
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?	5	$573	535	535	+0	Yes	-$16	09-01 17:14
Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes?	2	$542	550	0	+550	No	+$8	09-20 16:23
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 UT-01 House election by 20%-25%?	4	$535	321	321	+0	open	—	10-26 22:28
Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	6	$491	614	614	+0	open	—	10-23 21:49
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$483	281	281	+0	Yes	+$73	10-26 17:59
Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?	2	$477	560	0	+560	No	+$83	09-05 10:17
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$457	500	0	+500	open	—	09-23 18:46
trump renames ai by september 30	3	$418	468	373	+95	Yes	-$173	09-29 19:01
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	11	$399	341	170	+170	No	+$69	10-22 11:19
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	7	$397	250	250	+0	open	—	10-26 19:07
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	5	$372	476	25	+451	Yes	-$249	10-11 06:34
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	5	$363	603	0	+603	Yes	+$240	10-06 10:16
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	2	$362	559	0	+559	No	-$362	10-15 06:39
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?	4	$355	402	0	+402	Yes	+$47	09-26 08:31
Will Linke win 40 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	1	$344	370	0	+370	Yes	+$26	09-20 16:41
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	2	$342	422	422	+0	open	—	10-21 14:53
Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	6	$309	331	60	+271	No	+$82	10-11 06:19
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	1	$306	329	0	+329	Yes	+$23	10-14 17:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 22:28:59	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 UT-01 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	281	89¢	$250	0x936cb7…
10-26 21:15:47	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	313	73¢	$230	0xb4cbf6…
10-26 19:07:47	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	SELL	19	91¢	$17	0xfe2ee8…
10-26 19:06:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	SELL	60	91¢	$55	0xc9b560…
10-26 19:06:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	SELL	46	91¢	$42	0x7fce28…
10-26 19:06:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	SELL	102	91¢	$93	0x6586e3…
10-26 19:06:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x2d7db5…
10-26 19:06:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0x055669…
10-26 18:48:36	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	73	73¢	$53	0xe83726…
10-26 18:48:21	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x996d7c…
10-26 18:48:21	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	129	73¢	$94	0x265a24…
10-26 18:48:20	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	81	73¢	$59	0x9d87c6…
10-26 18:48:20	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	500	73¢	$364	0x023293…
10-26 18:48:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	304	73¢	$221	0xaf408f…
10-26 17:59:35	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	281	99¢	$278	0x6f9a00…
10-26 17:51:42	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	168	99¢	$167	0x08199e…
10-26 17:51:11	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	359	100¢	$359	0x4708a0…
10-26 16:11:56	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	281	73¢	$205	0x237b6b…
10-26 16:11:33	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	359	83¢	$300	0x2b25df…
10-26 16:10:57	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	513	100¢	$511	0x41d985…
10-26 15:37:42	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	168	59¢	$99	0x80c8d7…
10-26 06:41:38	will google have the second highest openrouter market share the week of october 26	Yes	BUY	144	52¢	$75	0xc11172…
10-26 06:40:09	will deepseek have the second highest openrouter market share the week of october 26	Yes	BUY	80	72¢	$58	0x33b660…
10-25 20:20:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	33	85¢	$28	0xa6561f…
10-25 14:28:57	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0xe0e71a…
10-25 08:00:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 UT-01 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x546a45…
10-24 20:19:57	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-10 House election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0xd03dcb…
10-24 07:43:11	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	BUY	250	68¢	$170	0x9f0772…
10-24 07:42:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	250	88¢	$220	0x7ad9ee…
10-24 07:41:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	325	77¢	$250	0x846dbd…
10-24 07:40:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-10 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	361	69¢	$250	0xa144df…
10-24 07:23:57	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	480	16¢	$77	0x7e1295…
10-24 05:39:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 UT-01 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xd64229…
10-23 21:49:18	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xfd33fe…
10-23 21:49:18	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0xf4282f…
10-23 21:49:18	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	SELL	60	48¢	$29	0x5a76f5…
10-23 21:49:18	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	SELL	327	48¢	$157	0x1e955d…
10-23 04:03:48	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	305	97¢	$297	0x724df6…
10-23 01:05:27	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x32ce48…
10-22 22:35:17	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x1d7243…
10-22 22:35:15	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	21	87¢	$18	0x383d0f…
10-22 19:09:36	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	48	97¢	$47	0x3b7b84…
10-22 17:43:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 35% or more?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xbfac50…
10-22 15:51:56	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xcebfae…
10-22 11:19:05	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0x2382f1…
10-22 10:14:17	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	65	51¢	$33	0xd900f5…
10-22 09:00:23	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	333	75¢	$250	0x67fa98…
10-22 08:58:36	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	101	67¢	$68	0xebfda0…
10-22 08:56:53	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	330	16¢	$52	0x6f7c16…
10-22 06:18:25	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	30	87¢	$26	0xe43b07…
10-22 01:37:32	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0xf23abd…
10-22 01:32:09	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0x9cfe2e…
10-22 01:30:21	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	13	87¢	$11	0x317a93…
10-21 22:19:02	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$5	0xca391e…
10-21 20:27:27	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 450,000 and 500,000?	No	SELL	0	78¢	$0	0x515f10…
10-21 20:27:17	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 450,000 and 500,000?	No	SELL	13	78¢	$10	0x850c85…
10-21 17:14:15	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	13	87¢	$11	0x44b514…
10-21 16:58:20	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0x01db45…
10-21 15:29:12	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 45%-50%?	No	BUY	184	82¢	$150	0x7c4e68…
10-21 14:53:48	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	422	47¢	$198	0xcb8eec…
10-21 12:41:03	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x73a9aa…
10-21 12:40:42	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	598	95¢	$567	0xb1cd80…
10-21 11:59:26	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	19	87¢	$16	0x3d6212…
10-21 11:54:11	Will "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M?	No	BUY	273	28¢	$77	0x9a0145…
10-21 11:51:30	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-02 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	232	76¢	$176	0x036413…
10-21 11:49:33	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 60%-65%?	No	BUY	118	73¢	$86	0x423fc1…
10-21 11:46:09	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be above 5%?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x3b15c2…
10-21 11:41:06	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be above 5%?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xf72f18…
10-21 10:55:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 UT-01 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	321	78¢	$250	0x8d879c…
10-21 10:54:15	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-26 House election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	294	67¢	$197	0xbae348…
10-21 10:53:09	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	446	56¢	$250	0xfdb25d…
10-21 10:24:56	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	SELL	199	44¢	$88	0xd43edd…
10-21 10:22:20	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0xc96ab9…
10-21 10:21:59	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	60	31¢	$19	0x754385…
10-21 10:20:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 65%-70%?	No	BUY	177	76¢	$135	0xd2d412…
10-21 10:19:35	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	418	30¢	$125	0xee4a6f…
10-21 10:16:57	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 1% and 3%?	Yes	BUY	644	14¢	$90	0x5cfb02…
10-21 10:14:00	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	41	54¢	$22	0xec4de0…
10-21 10:13:39	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x2e4425…
10-21 07:46:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	375	59¢	$220	0x64d661…
10-21 02:15:32	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x0c15a5…
10-20 18:29:32	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	No	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x4f94ae…
10-20 18:24:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-07 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	263	64¢	$169	0xbf46db…
10-20 18:22:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 35% or more?	No	BUY	164	86¢	$142	0xbdc97b…
10-20 18:19:12	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be above 5%?	No	BUY	229	73¢	$168	0x41f8d9…
10-20 18:18:11	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	BUY	614	33¢	$204	0xcfcc1f…
10-20 18:16:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	307	70¢	$215	0xbbe66c…
10-20 18:10:33	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0xfdff88…
10-20 17:16:36	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	441	94¢	$415	0x4fe1e2…
10-20 16:45:54	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	316	94¢	$297	0x7f3fd1…
10-20 13:13:17	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xf7676f…
10-20 06:37:08	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	777	90¢	$699	0x695251…
10-19 17:15:50	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	422	34¢	$144	0x5f3255…
10-19 12:41:50	Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xd8eb5e…
10-19 12:00:41	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	341	73¢	$250	0x47b1e0…
10-19 10:32:02	Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	No	SELL	139	12¢	$17	0x8e2cdb…
10-16 12:20:52	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xd2265b…
10-16 06:37:18	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	151	74¢	$111	0x3beb5e…
10-15 10:32:59	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	212	47¢	$100	0x44ab1c…
10-15 06:39:59	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	15	62¢	$9	0xdc4d03…