Realized P&L
-$129
Unrealized P&L
+$7
Hit rate
95.9%
Resolved
4,051
Trades
7,354
lifetime
Volume
$158.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$22
Open exposure
$27
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-09
last 10-27 00:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 26 days
Categories
Crypto
99% 96% -$72
Other
1% 12% -$83
Politics
0% 9% +$27
Tech
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
15 active days in 12wk • peak 477 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes +20 $0 11¢ $2 +$2 10-23 12:47
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +20 $1 9¢ $2 +$1 10-25 18:44
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes +20 $1 8¢ $2 +$1 10-22 01:14
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? Yes +20 $1 6¢ $1 +$1 10-21 15:39
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes +20 $0 5¢ $1 +$1 10-21 16:21
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +19 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 10-24 17:54
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Yes +16 $1 6¢ $1 +$0 10-21 15:45
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes +19 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 10-24 17:37
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 10-25 23:47
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? No +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 10-17 18:48
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 10-23 22:25
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-26 10:19
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-22 14:18
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-23 18:44
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-22 01:13
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-23 15:19
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-21 16:48
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-24 08:19
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-22 09:23
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-26 18:35
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 $0 10-17 18:48
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $1 4¢ $1 $0 10-21 17:24
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes +20 $1 3¢ $1 $0 10-21 16:50
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $1 3¢ $1 $0 10-21 17:40
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Yes +20 $1 3¢ $1 +$0 10-23 15:21
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Yes +20 $1 3¢ $1 $0 10-22 11:51
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? Yes +19 $1 3¢ $1 $0 10-24 18:41
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $1 3¢ $1 +$0 10-21 16:06
Macron out by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $0 6¢ $1 +$0 10-21 06:19
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? Yes +20 $1 3¢ $1 +$0 10-26 09:46