Strong-Exit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$10.5K

Hit rate

90.0%

Resolved

27,413

Trades

164,797

lifetime

Volume

$4.51M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$203.1K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-20 17:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 271 days

Categories

Other

62% 81% +$18,117

Politics

23% 86% +$181

Sports

9% 91% -$6,103

Crypto

3% 60% +$2,470

Tech

2% 80% -$915

Pop-Culture

0% 86% +$320

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 1805 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+39,974	$25,189	92¢	$37.0K	+$11,786	10-19 13:17
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+17,685	$17,508	100¢	$17.7K	+$160	10-20 12:35
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+16,497	$11,952	64¢	$10.6K	-$1,320	10-20 03:47
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+12,613	$7,279	66¢	$8.4K	+$1,108	10-20 06:47
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+7,422	$7,228	99¢	$7.4K	+$145	10-16 09:09
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+7,004	$6,979	100¢	$7.0K	$0	10-19 11:30
Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+7,218	$7,152	96¢	$6.9K	-$212	10-11 00:06
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+6,727	$6,662	99¢	$6.7K	+$18	10-11 15:51
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+6,258	$6,140	97¢	$6.1K	-$49	10-14 15:12
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+6,581	$5,088	86¢	$5.6K	+$551	10-11 10:50
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+5,586	$5,551	100¢	$5.6K	+$15	10-19 00:35
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+16,594	$6,478	34¢	$5.6K	-$919	10-20 06:47
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+5,490	$5,472	97¢	$5.3K	-$155	10-19 11:31
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	+5,187	$4,813	96¢	$5.0K	+$148	10-19 11:37
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+4,908	$4,872	99¢	$4.9K	+$6	10-19 18:03
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	+5,080	$4,450	93¢	$4.7K	+$254	10-18 19:19
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+5,953	$4,070	79¢	$4.7K	+$633	10-14 13:40
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+5,222	$4,866	90¢	$4.7K	-$171	10-06 21:41
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+4,579	$4,358	100¢	$4.6K	+$205	10-11 15:51
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+4,570	$4,527	99¢	$4.5K	+$13	09-27 00:11
Will Everton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+4,415	$4,410	100¢	$4.4K	+$0	09-30 21:07
Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+4,191	$4,177	100¢	$4.2K	+$5	09-30 21:08
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+4,121	$4,114	100¢	$4.1K	+$1	10-16 03:40
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+4,112	$3,921	100¢	$4.1K	+$177	10-20 17:29
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+4,016	$3,989	100¢	$4.0K	+$20	10-16 11:51
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+4,003	$3,999	100¢	$4.0K	-$2	10-09 13:36
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	+5,577	$4,396	72¢	$4.0K	-$408	10-18 13:09
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+3,857	$3,831	99¢	$3.8K	-$10	10-06 21:41
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+3,898	$3,860	98¢	$3.8K	-$40	10-08 21:42
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+15,437	$5,196	24¢	$3.8K	-$1,414	10-14 15:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tran cam tu be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	819	$63.4K	64,398	481	+63,917	No	+$741	01-23 06:57
will luong cuong be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	815	$63.2K	63,742	1,265	+62,477	No	+$425	01-23 06:57
will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	825	$59.8K	63,790	671	+63,119	No	+$4,051	01-23 06:57
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	217	$47.4K	47,416	0	+47,416	No	+$51	09-19 18:56
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	170	$45.0K	45,997	0	+45,997	No	+$1,020	09-20 19:38
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	152	$41.2K	41,515	0	+41,515	No	+$294	09-20 19:43
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	278	$36.1K	36,252	0	+36,252	No	+$149	10-20 17:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	161	$34.2K	60,394	0	+60,394	No	+$26,237	09-14 21:09
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	226	$32.5K	32,569	0	+32,569	No	+$67	10-20 02:10
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	139	$31.6K	31,642	0	+31,642	No	+$57	09-20 13:03
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	165	$30.4K	30,912	1,589	+29,323	No	+$574	01-23 17:40
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	255	$30.3K	31,811	0	+31,811	No	+$1,546	10-20 12:39
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	239	$29.4K	30,235	0	+30,235	No	+$855	10-20 12:34
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	102	$28.9K	29,039	0	+29,039	No	+$170	09-14 21:09
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	239	$27.6K	28,050	0	+28,050	No	+$425	10-20 17:20
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	209	$27.1K	27,363	0	+27,363	No	+$214	10-20 12:39
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	153	$26.9K	26,951	5,549	+21,402	No	+$33	01-23 18:27
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	51	$25.3K	25,364	0	+25,364	No	+$35	09-11 12:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	119	$25.2K	39,974	0	+39,974	open	—	10-19 13:17
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	217	$23.9K	23,994	0	+23,994	No	+$49	10-20 17:20
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	68	$22.4K	22,500	0	+22,500	open	—	10-14 18:14
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	62	$18.4K	18,441	100	+18,340	No	+$31	09-16 00:05
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	157	$17.6K	17,571	0	+17,571	No	+$20	10-20 12:34
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	44	$17.5K	17,685	0	+17,685	open	—	10-20 12:35
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	67	$16.9K	16,888	0	+16,888	No	+$22	09-21 22:00
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	82	$16.4K	16,420	100	+16,320	No	+$20	09-21 17:28
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	120	$15.8K	36,800	0	+36,800	Yes	-$15,815	09-14 21:09
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	70	$15.5K	19,705	0	+19,705	No	+$4,237	09-20 18:04
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	89	$15.2K	15,946	0	+15,946	No	+$731	09-28 22:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	107	$13.9K	35,479	0	+35,479	open	—	10-16 04:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 17:56:26	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Neither team to score first?	No	BUY	125	96¢	$121	0xd0aaec…
10-20 17:54:15	Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	No	BUY	33	1¢	$0	0x95d32b…
10-20 17:54:14	Will Trudy peak at Category 4?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0xdac3ac…
10-20 17:52:30	Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	33	62¢	$20	0x76a037…
10-20 17:43:32	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 22?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$17	0xf8bd2a…
10-20 17:42:26	Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	No	BUY	43	88¢	$38	0xcbdd3c…
10-20 17:42:26	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x729809…
10-20 17:40:41	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 21?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x5ff6c6…
10-20 17:40:41	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 21?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2c24e7…
10-20 17:37:05	Josh Shapiro Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd55721…
10-20 17:37:05	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x80fd1b…
10-20 17:36:29	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	52	7¢	$4	0x9c0c5b…
10-20 17:34:09	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x7c62e8…
10-20 17:34:09	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4ac2c1…
10-20 17:34:09	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1fa715…
10-20 17:33:35	FC Barcelona to score first vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xfe1585…
10-20 17:33:35	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Neither team to score first?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8213d3…
10-20 17:32:30	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Neither team to score first?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0xe4e79f…
10-20 17:29:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xa78c23…
10-20 17:28:20	Will James Comer be the Republican nominee for Kentucky Governor?	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xf3db94…
10-20 17:28:20	Will Savannah Maddox be the Republican nominee for Kentucky Governor?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0x6bcec2…
10-20 17:28:20	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for Kentucky Governor?	No	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x3ca07f…
10-20 17:27:36	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf27243…
10-20 17:27:35	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 58.0 and 58.9 in October?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa91fd9…
10-20 17:27:35	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x638227…
10-20 17:27:35	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in October?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x05f844…
10-20 17:26:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x98274b…
10-20 17:26:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x579a1b…
10-20 17:25:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election by 0%-15%?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe7aff2…
10-20 17:25:54	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc6280a…
10-20 17:25:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election by 15%-25%?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x29184e…
10-20 17:23:30	Exact Score: Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 0 NEOM SC?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x47afe7…
10-20 17:21:42	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xd289bd…
10-20 17:21:38	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x62c9df…
10-20 17:21:24	Will Becerra win the 2026 California gubernatorial election by 40% or more?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe5fa9b…
10-20 17:21:24	Will Becerra win the 2026 California gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9116fa…
10-20 17:20:32	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf46a36…
10-20 17:20:32	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbba349…
10-20 17:20:32	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x019c83…
10-20 17:18:27	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Neither team to score first?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe43c10…
10-20 17:18:27	Paris Saint-Germain FC to score first vs. FC Barcelona?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x669fb4…
10-20 17:15:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x9ea903…
10-20 17:15:53	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x3e233d…
10-20 17:15:53	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x054a3d…
10-20 17:12:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe25cf9…
10-20 17:12:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xa6aa7b…
10-20 17:12:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x9e50bb…
10-20 17:12:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x126614…
10-20 17:08:48	Will Seattle have less than 1.75 inches of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	33	26¢	$9	0xa5848a…
10-20 17:08:48	Will Seattle have between 4.75 and 6 inches of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x7913ba…
10-20 17:06:06	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x32117e…
10-20 16:47:44	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xb1d97f…
10-20 16:47:42	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb6575f…
10-20 16:47:42	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x760019…
10-20 16:47:42	Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0ae692…
10-20 15:40:18	Will a team from LCS (North America) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xdbe862…
10-20 15:40:18	Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x981ce9…
10-20 15:25:56	Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?	No	BUY	198	31¢	$62	0xec661e…
10-20 15:25:56	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?	No	BUY	198	68¢	$135	0x89d549…
10-20 15:15:57	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	600	79¢	$474	0x58beb4…
10-20 15:06:17	Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	68	93¢	$63	0x3a22cd…
10-20 15:06:17	Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0x1e5bce…
10-20 14:56:27	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x771812…
10-20 14:56:27	Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x45af01…
10-20 14:52:51	Will Democrats win 5 or more House seats in Wisconsin in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x833a34…
10-20 14:48:08	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	BUY	300	30¢	$90	0x87ce4c…
10-20 14:26:18	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xed286a…
10-20 13:57:24	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$274	0xc4995e…
10-20 13:47:21	Manchester City FC vs. AEK: AEK O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x66c0bb…
10-20 13:29:12	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xe78ba8…
10-20 13:22:12	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x5a990d…
10-20 13:13:05	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 13.5%+?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x577c7f…
10-20 13:13:03	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xd32bfa…
10-20 13:06:39	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xa7b243…
10-20 13:06:38	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x95c4e5…
10-20 13:03:56	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x4a0617…
10-20 13:03:56	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x33919b…
10-20 12:50:24	Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$12	0xea56a8…
10-20 12:46:17	Will Stephen Wilson Jr. win New Artist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	No	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x6bf8e8…
10-20 12:46:15	Will Emily Ann Roberts win New Artist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x1a0bd1…
10-20 12:39:17	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x07208f…
10-20 12:39:15	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x90d948…
10-20 12:39:15	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7dae36…
10-20 12:36:00	Will Kristian Horvath win the next Sorell mayoral election?	No	BUY	13	81¢	$10	0x98ecad…
10-20 12:36:00	Will Janet Gatehouse win the next Sorell mayoral election?	No	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x34ecfb…
10-20 12:35:33	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x97f6ed…
10-20 12:35:32	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,200	100¢	$1,196	0x35f4d8…
10-20 12:34:29	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x63f7b5…
10-20 12:34:21	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf9439c…
10-20 12:34:21	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x64a0ac…
10-20 12:34:21	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2bc090…
10-20 12:33:57	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xeaeda0…
10-20 12:33:57	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x45a19a…
10-20 12:33:57	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x146635…
10-20 12:32:17	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x203f83…
10-20 12:30:44	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x04ed1f…
10-20 12:30:26	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	33	84¢	$28	0x0527ca…
10-20 12:29:57	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x15ad3a…
10-20 12:29:51	Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x55b701…
10-20 12:27:42	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,125,000 and $1,146,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x9eedaa…