Likely-Paranoia — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

+$20

Hit rate

34.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$188

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$102

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-14 13:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

71% 0% $-28

Sports

27% 60% +$2

Crypto

3% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	Team Spirit	+94	$50	76¢	$72	+$22	05-14 13:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	-32	$-20	66¢	$-21	$-1	05-11 17:07
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5	Over	+21	$10	42¢	$9	$-1	05-14 13:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$55	42	74	-32	open	—	05-11 17:07
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	1	$50	94	0	+94	open	—	05-14 13:20
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	1	$10	50	0	+50	No	$-10	05-10 19:08
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	1	$10	20	0	+20	Cavaliers	+$10	05-11 17:22
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox	1	$10	31	0	+31	Boston Red Sox	$-10	05-13 23:09
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	05-14 13:10
Wild vs. Avalanche	1	$10	29	0	+29	Avalanche	$-10	05-13 12:58
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5	1	$10	15	0	+15	Over	$-10	05-13 12:18
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$8	30	0	+30	BetBoom Team	$-8	05-13 22:32
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5	1	$5	11	0	+11	Under	+$6	05-13 15:18
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves	1	$5	11	0	+11	Atlanta Braves	+$6	05-13 21:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-06 17:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 13:20:53	Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	Team Spirit	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xc329c2…
05-14 13:10:40	Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x53cc9c…
05-13 23:09:48	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x1883a6…
05-13 22:32:07	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	paiN	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x317b4c…
05-13 21:52:51	Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x95c7d2…
05-13 21:51:48	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	paiN	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x91865e…
05-13 15:18:33	New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xfbfb0b…
05-13 12:58:14	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x10c474…
05-13 12:18:25	Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x6ad890…
05-11 17:22:27	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x54a19c…
05-11 17:07:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	32	62¢	$20	0xdf2b55…
05-11 13:42:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	42	37¢	$15	0xa0b41a…
05-10 19:08:15	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x816786…
05-06 17:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xb5575b…
05-06 14:47:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x259291…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	7	$536	22	05-14 02:25
Agitated-Bricklaying 0x84cf…2f63	6	$33.9K	452	05-14 03:41
Frail-Possible 0x204f…5e14	6	$9.70K	72	05-14 03:06
Happy-Go-Lucky-Min 0x84ad…bfb7	5	$1.98K	64	05-14 03:00
(anonymous) 0x5375…aeea	4	$10.2K	25	05-14 01:29
Unkempt-Image 0xd106…c79c	4	$8.94K	36	05-13 23:33
(anonymous) 0x5d1d…afd2	4	$5.72K	12	05-14 02:56
Cuddly-Will 0x7fea…8f74	4	$5.04K	35	05-14 02:42