Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$349

Unrealized P&L

-$37

Hit rate

19.0%

Resolved

106

Trades

1,532

lifetime

Volume

$18.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$248

16 positions

First seen

2026-09-27

last 11-01 23:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Other

70% 23% -$243

Politics

19% 11% -$88

Tech

10% 29% -$12

Crypto

1% 0% -$6

Sports

1% 50% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	+162	$94	59¢	$95	+$1	10-09 15:19
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+162	$72	41¢	$67	-$5	10-07 10:14
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	+50	$16	99¢	$50	+$34	09-28 17:08
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	+20	$11	88¢	$18	+$6	10-08 05:05
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	+16	$8	44¢	$7	-$1	11-01 11:18
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	+20	$8	12¢	$2	-$5	10-20 03:51
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	+4	$2	62¢	$2	+$0	10-27 20:11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	+3	$2	54¢	$2	-$1	10-25 13:41
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	+4	$14	38¢	$1	-$13	10-29 14:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+3	$0	46¢	$1	+$1	10-22 20:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+2	$1	64¢	$1	+$0	10-18 01:53
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	+50	$39	1¢	$0	-$38	09-29 07:49
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+1	$6	51¢	$0	-$6	10-29 10:40
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+1	$10	49¢	$0	-$10	10-27 06:50
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	40¢	$0	+$0	10-25 08:20
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	+3	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-16 22:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	79	$669	739	519	+220	Yes	-$3	10-01 20:43
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	34	$665	716	535	+181	open	—	10-01 05:31
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	29	$581	764	441	+324	open	—	10-09 15:19
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	35	$516	712	370	+341	open	—	10-06 04:06
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	18	$328	330	330	+0	open	—	10-13 17:30
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	37	$324	384	248	+136	Yes	+$2	10-03 07:14
Spain snap election called by October 31?	8	$309	328	248	+80	Yes	-$14	10-03 01:06
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	17	$294	278	262	+16	open	—	11-01 11:18
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	16	$290	350	350	+0	open	—	10-24 16:05
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026?	27	$270	296	224	+72	Yes	-$29	10-05 11:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	9	$255	312	88	+224	Yes	-$3	10-02 19:09
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	12	$249	250	250	+0	open	—	11-01 19:00
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?	13	$243	260	225	+35	Yes	-$9	10-06 17:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	10	$237	250	250	+0	open	—	10-30 16:40
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	10	$236	250	250	+0	open	—	11-01 18:31
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	11	$202	199	199	+0	open	—	11-01 18:19
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 60 and 89 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?	6	$200	326	326	+0	No	-$57	10-07 16:12
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	10	$194	200	200	+0	open	—	10-25 08:02
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	10	$193	190	190	+0	open	—	10-26 14:13
Will a team from Pacific win VALORANT Champions 2026?	15	$183	268	167	+101	No	-$21	10-07 20:38
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	14	$178	200	198	+2	open	—	10-29 10:40
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	6	$162	148	148	+0	open	—	10-29 17:36
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	7	$152	190	90	+100	open	—	10-07 20:41
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	9	$147	159	152	+7	open	—	10-29 14:30
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	4	$131	150	50	+100	open	—	09-29 07:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	9	$127	135	129	+6	open	—	10-25 13:41
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	6	$122	231	9	+222	No	-$8	10-10 07:57
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by October 31, 2026?	10	$121	120	80	+40	Yes	-$2	10-06 09:22
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	8	$120	120	120	+0	open	—	10-30 06:52
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	16	$114	127	99	+28	open	—	10-07 20:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 23:22:58	Israel military action against Syria by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x735487…
11-01 22:08:24	Israel military action against Syria by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x48c1fd…
11-01 22:00:55	Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x186b86…
11-01 21:53:39	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x158a2d…
11-01 20:11:46	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x48f341…
11-01 19:54:06	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the November meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	58¢	$9	0x2d0726…
11-01 19:00:12	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	SELL	50	52¢	$26	0xd71a06…
11-01 18:35:13	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0xab54e8…
11-01 18:35:13	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	38	51¢	$20	0x31dc1c…
11-01 18:34:57	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x10d7ae…
11-01 18:31:55	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	SELL	50	69¢	$34	0x925ee0…
11-01 18:19:27	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x8f29c8…
11-01 18:19:27	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	Yes	SELL	50	52¢	$26	0x1f55ae…
11-01 17:45:37	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xdb6254…
11-01 17:36:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x5924d4…
11-01 17:36:25	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x26d3f3…
11-01 17:01:39	Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in efficiency (EFF) per game in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc78e63…
11-01 16:54:49	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the November meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x31d5ee…
11-01 16:54:43	Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 130m?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x98dd10…
11-01 16:45:28	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	58¢	$4	0xa21182…
11-01 16:45:28	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x5ac342…
11-01 16:24:24	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x6443c0…
11-01 16:22:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	63¢	$20	0xb529f7…
11-01 14:23:57	Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 130m?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x853841…
11-01 14:09:58	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x657281…
11-01 13:54:06	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x1336d1…
11-01 13:53:15	Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xfabd13…
11-01 13:53:13	Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xbfb62f…
11-01 12:52:12	Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0x50be4f…
11-01 12:51:12	Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x5a3c7a…
11-01 12:45:10	Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x0fd495…
11-01 12:36:09	Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xc6b4b1…
11-01 12:13:39	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x27e5c1…
11-01 12:06:43	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xda0959…
11-01 11:18:36	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	45¢	$7	0x06026b…
11-01 10:54:01	Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x2b8f97…
11-01 10:46:27	Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x9d0f83…
11-01 10:16:31	Israel military action against Greater Beirut by November 30?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x747be5…
11-01 10:07:19	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	64¢	$21	0x90f2e9…
11-01 09:58:00	Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x8f0af6…
11-01 08:53:12	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0x0f62c8…
11-01 07:45:37	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	SELL	16	20¢	$3	0x38a74d…
11-01 07:45:36	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	BUY	16	18¢	$3	0xf5d07c…
11-01 06:40:55	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	SELL	45	18¢	$8	0x8671ae…
11-01 06:40:55	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x7f71cc…
11-01 06:39:28	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xc58d70…
11-01 06:13:09	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xf5052c…
11-01 06:13:07	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	0	26¢	$0	0x8c2a08…
11-01 05:53:04	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xcf058b…
11-01 05:16:54	Will BLG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x26ff07…
11-01 03:19:49	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x47613d…
11-01 03:04:19	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	28	64¢	$18	0x439a81…
11-01 03:00:31	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0xd7b2bc…
11-01 03:00:31	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	21	64¢	$13	0x4e9e72…
11-01 02:52:45	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x81eefa…
11-01 00:13:39	Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by November 30?	Yes	SELL	12	74¢	$9	0xb830d6…
10-31 23:54:39	Israel military action against Greater Beirut by November 30?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x5d6352…
10-31 23:05:30	Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by November 30?	Yes	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x5093fc…
10-31 22:52:01	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x613699…
10-31 22:19:31	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xa023c0…
10-31 21:51:36	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x499084…
10-31 20:42:40	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x5e9bdc…
10-31 20:38:30	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x21e292…
10-31 20:17:24	Will the Democrats win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x091599…
10-31 20:13:24	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x7e898f…
10-31 20:11:06	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xdee716…
10-31 18:18:15	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x72e6a2…
10-31 18:18:10	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x3f2ca0…
10-31 18:11:37	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x86120a…
10-31 17:33:24	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	21	52¢	$11	0xc83505…
10-31 17:33:13	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0xbf205e…
10-31 17:32:43	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x828104…
10-31 17:17:18	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xdac53b…
10-31 17:14:54	Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x2d6f56…
10-31 17:10:40	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xea2bc1…
10-31 16:34:13	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	No	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x369cb6…
10-31 16:23:04	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xaf0f2d…
10-31 15:42:48	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0xd52736…
10-31 14:44:10	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x1bb25b…
10-31 13:52:24	Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x3aa26e…
10-31 13:52:18	Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x8e5dfd…
10-31 13:19:49	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	No	SELL	30	37¢	$11	0x12ea39…
10-31 13:19:46	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x979ee3…
10-31 12:50:19	Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xd86104…
10-31 12:43:57	Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x875f8e…
10-31 12:35:27	Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x0b87c9…
10-31 12:07:07	Government shutdown by December 12?	Yes	SELL	16	31¢	$5	0xf2fc27…
10-31 11:13:01	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	49	55¢	$27	0xc57e82…
10-31 11:07:42	Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xa9257e…
10-31 11:00:42	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0xf472dc…
10-31 11:00:40	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x846440…
10-31 10:31:27	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	49	55¢	$27	0x395040…
10-31 09:55:55	Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xbeedb4…
10-31 09:49:12	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x448c74…
10-31 09:47:06	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x2d3496…
10-31 09:04:03	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?	Yes	SELL	42	58¢	$24	0xfcebe7…
10-31 08:34:52	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x178279…
10-31 08:34:01	Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xf12fca…
10-31 08:22:49	Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x070dda…
10-31 08:19:00	Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x338770…