Frizzy-Opening — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$142.1K

Unrealized P&L

-$9.33K

Hit rate

79.6%

Resolved

103

Trades

19,352

lifetime

Volume

$46.0M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.37K

Open exposure

$44.7K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-29 18:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

72% 92% +$102,562

Politics

22% 85% -$6,955

Crypto

4% 75% +$43,083

Sports

2% 100% +$3,457

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-29).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		-50,000	-$35,422	90¢	$-44750	-$9,327	05-21 12:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	3,403	$5.17M	3,003,029	2,383,932	+619,097	Yes	+$5,626	03-17 09:19
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1,635	$3.54M	2,101,491	1,505,882	+595,609	Yes	-$8,511	01-28 22:50
netanyahu out by march 31 854	288	$2.23M	1,182,851	1,082,893	+99,958	No	+$19,085	04-01 04:44
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	132	$2.13M	1,367,993	765,036	+602,957	No	+$1,850	01-05 00:39
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	426	$1.92M	1,004,884	943,365	+61,519	No	+$9,786	03-04 16:38
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1,044	$1.80M	890,671	933,305	-42,634	Yes	+$8,395	04-29 18:38
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	74	$1.50M	749,747	750,983	-1,236	No	+$997	01-04 08:32
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	205	$1.08M	548,928	548,928	+0	No	+$6,849	04-26 15:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	386	$1.06M	404,812	711,293	-306,480	No	-$13,275	06-11 21:26
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	348	$1.02M	807,082	548,162	+258,920	No	+$4,097	07-21 11:38
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	216	$1.02M	1,030,410	1,464	+1,028,947	No	+$9,079	07-29 15:58
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	99	$1.01M	917,313	102,332	+814,981	Yes	-$32,389	04-09 09:46
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	77	$979.8K	891,595	151,595	+740,000	No	+$42,804	06-03 05:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	277	$929.9K	473,709	472,474	+1,235	No	+$5,664	05-14 19:07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	142	$919.6K	429,163	500,000	-70,837	Yes	-$3,816	03-04 16:47
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	69	$896.3K	800,000	100,000	+700,000	Yes	+$2,890	04-08 17:07
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	198	$854.0K	831,888	31,888	+800,000	Yes	+$3,457	07-08 09:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	461	$848.5K	354,052	659,251	-305,199	Yes	-$99,681	07-29 18:00
maduro in us custody by january 31	82	$797.2K	798,000	0	+798,000	Yes	+$798	01-07 00:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	884	$736.9K	468,421	452,964	+15,458	No	+$10,350	01-30 13:14
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	474	$719.2K	756,939	3,389	+753,550	No	+$40,695	01-28 18:53
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	138	$713.0K	531,168	194,664	+336,504	Yes	-$430	04-30 20:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	9	$705.5K	706,175	0	+706,175	Yes	+$706	06-17 21:21
will iran strike israel on march 6	38	$679.3K	680,000	0	+680,000	No	+$680	03-11 13:56
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	11	$653.2K	661,805	10,046	+651,759	No	+$570	04-30 20:16
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	43	$649.4K	650,000	0	+650,000	Yes	+$650	03-12 16:48
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	1	$599.4K	600,000	0	+600,000	Yes	+$600	05-04 17:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	393	$593.0K	294,940	314,939	-19,999	No	-$1,780	06-02 12:46
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	160	$547.0K	65,055	482,537	-417,482	No	-$417	01-04 16:03
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	46	$528.8K	265,000	265,000	+0	Yes	+$400	04-17 06:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-29 18:00:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	110,110	100¢	$110,000	0xc000d3…
07-29 18:00:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	192,420	0¢	$192	0x74e0e3…
07-29 15:58:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12,308	100¢	$12,271	0xd74e2a…
07-29 15:55:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20,000	100¢	$19,940	0xf56274…
07-29 15:55:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0x1dd423…
07-29 15:53:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,985	0x04a50e…
07-29 15:52:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,970	0x946f5b…
07-29 15:52:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x6fa066…
07-29 15:52:23	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,985	0xe161b2…
07-29 15:52:11	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9,333	100¢	$9,305	0x713e8c…
07-29 15:50:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	390	100¢	$389	0xe328b2…
07-29 15:49:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,985	0x8090ff…
07-29 15:48:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12,012	100¢	$11,976	0x80df6d…
07-29 15:43:02	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,340	100¢	$1,336	0xf88e7d…
07-27 18:21:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x662775…
07-27 18:21:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8,107	100¢	$8,082	0x5ec102…
07-27 18:21:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x3b32c0…
07-27 18:21:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	16,642	100¢	$16,592	0x977481…
07-27 16:45:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	300	73¢	$219	0xde5a8c…
07-27 16:44:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	68	73¢	$50	0x3d50df…
07-27 16:43:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	411	73¢	$300	0x2f07dd…
07-27 16:43:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	376	73¢	$274	0x72f303…
07-27 16:43:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	99	73¢	$72	0x6333ff…
07-27 16:41:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x178033…
07-27 16:40:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	291	73¢	$212	0x3f1414…
07-27 16:40:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x1e2283…
07-27 16:40:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,677	26¢	$1,763	0x7cafa1…
07-27 16:40:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	178	73¢	$130	0x5b8b06…
07-27 16:39:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,127	100¢	$3,117	0xf099f9…
07-27 16:39:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	800	73¢	$584	0x9ca110…
07-27 16:38:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	504	73¢	$368	0xb68fe1…
07-27 16:38:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	667	100¢	$665	0x9ad033…
07-27 16:37:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,030	26¢	$2,648	0x1340aa…
07-27 16:36:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	137	73¢	$100	0xd99023…
07-27 16:36:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	89	73¢	$65	0x1dc7c9…
07-27 16:36:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	52	73¢	$38	0x939ef5…
07-27 16:36:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	480	100¢	$479	0x06fb42…
07-27 16:33:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x5e5217…
07-27 16:33:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x1b0071…
07-27 16:33:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xb5b2fb…
07-27 16:33:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	41	73¢	$30	0x6edc57…
07-27 16:31:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6,280	100¢	$6,261	0x958b7a…
07-27 16:30:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x630834…
07-27 16:30:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	251	73¢	$183	0xb33585…
07-27 16:30:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xf970ec…
07-27 16:29:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	29	73¢	$21	0x54b799…
07-27 16:28:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	19	73¢	$14	0xb7ed0c…
07-27 16:28:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0x6ee2a9…
07-27 16:27:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,971	73¢	$1,439	0xc0b188…
07-27 16:27:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x72e7e3…
07-27 16:27:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0x2572a1…
07-27 16:27:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x3628a6…
07-27 16:27:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0x7326a4…
07-27 16:26:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	16	73¢	$12	0xa24512…
07-27 16:26:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	678	73¢	$495	0x75d9d9…
07-27 16:26:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	222	73¢	$162	0x403956…
07-27 16:25:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x6e74ab…
07-27 16:25:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x405108…
07-27 16:25:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x8ad3dc…
07-27 16:25:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	73¢	$3	0x142617…
07-27 16:25:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xf7b865…
07-27 16:24:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x161296…
07-27 16:24:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	65	73¢	$47	0xb611bb…
07-27 16:24:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x7e6a62…
07-27 16:24:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x441e0f…
07-27 16:24:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x29719c…
07-27 16:24:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,000	73¢	$3,650	0x036786…
07-27 16:23:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	137	73¢	$100	0xa177c1…
07-27 16:23:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17,779	27¢	$4,800	0xb21f58…
07-27 16:23:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,000	27¢	$2,160	0x0fcf74…
07-27 16:23:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	73¢	$730	0x05e50f…
07-27 16:22:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	27¢	$5	0xc6fff3…
07-27 16:22:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	983	27¢	$265	0x2c2fc3…
07-27 16:21:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0xe26313…
07-27 16:21:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0xce07b8…
07-27 16:21:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	89	73¢	$65	0x673b2d…
07-27 16:21:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x533695…
07-27 16:20:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	998	27¢	$270	0x0b190b…
07-27 16:19:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	82	27¢	$22	0x81c2d9…
07-27 16:19:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x1d7d9e…
07-27 16:19:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	69	27¢	$19	0xcf0dd1…
07-27 16:19:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0xf59377…
07-27 16:19:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	900	27¢	$243	0xf90573…
07-27 16:19:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	89	27¢	$24	0xa84690…
07-27 16:18:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	891	27¢	$241	0xfae748…
07-27 16:18:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0x053253…
07-27 16:18:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	993	27¢	$268	0xd48312…
07-27 16:17:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0xcdb802…
07-27 16:16:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x0110d3…
07-27 16:16:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	27¢	$2,700	0xbc387f…
07-27 16:13:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	667	100¢	$665	0x31d8ce…
07-27 16:10:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	27¢	$6	0xd832a0…
07-27 16:09:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0xd59a9a…
07-27 16:08:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	140	27¢	$38	0xbddc7a…
07-27 16:03:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4,500	100¢	$4,486	0x0a3960…
07-27 16:02:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	685	27¢	$185	0x255c88…
07-27 16:01:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xec17c7…
07-27 16:01:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x46c73a…
07-27 16:01:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x9ff246…
07-27 16:00:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,667	100¢	$1,662	0xb7bf60…