Occasional-Budget-Meringue — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.21K

Unrealized P&L

+$70

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved

Trades

853

lifetime

Volume

$231.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$272

Open exposure

$19.9K

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 06-12 10:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

68% 63% +$4,212

Politics

32% 0% $-6

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 84 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No		-19,951	$-19,212	96¢	$-19163	+$50	06-12 10:49
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No		+800	$672	86¢	$692	+$20	05-31 19:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	49	$19.2K	0	19,951	-19,951	open	—	06-12 10:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	9	$18.0K	10,014	10,014	+0	open	—	04-21 20:20
nvda up or down on april 13 2026	33	$15.9K	13,706	11,831	+1,875	open	—	04-13 13:35
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	49	$14.9K	9,458	8,458	+1,000	open	—	05-12 01:41
spy up or down on april 17 2026	10	$12.8K	20,869	7,226	+13,643	open	—	04-17 12:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	32	$9.8K	7,786	8,000	-214	open	—	05-18 19:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	45	$7.2K	11,369	9,869	+1,500	open	—	05-16 02:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	38	$6.4K	8,664	8,664	+0	open	—	05-04 03:17
qqq up or down on april 13 2026	9	$5.6K	4,688	4,587	+101	open	—	04-13 06:18
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	39	$5.4K	4,221	2,249	+1,972	open	—	05-19 22:16
amzn up or down on april 13 2026	10	$5.3K	5,700	3,371	+2,329	open	—	04-13 13:25
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	15	$5.2K	2,400	2,900	-500	open	—	05-18 19:24
meta up or down on april 13 2026	7	$5.0K	6,492	2,391	+4,102	open	—	04-13 13:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	17	$4.7K	2,600	3,100	-500	No	$-6	05-04 05:04
ewy up or down on april 13 2026	9	$4.4K	3,420	3,350	+70	open	—	04-13 06:21
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 28?	3	$4.2K	4,883	4,764	+119	open	—	04-28 03:08
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	2	$4.2K	2,322	2,322	+0	open	—	04-29 02:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	27	$4.1K	2,937	2,937	+0	open	—	05-18 19:08
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	7	$4.1K	2,160	2,160	+0	open	—	05-01 03:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	19	$4.1K	8,550	8,050	+500	open	—	05-27 06:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	6	$4.0K	7,280	0	+7,280	open	—	05-11 08:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	2	$3.8K	4,595	0	+4,595	open	—	05-10 21:57
spx up or down on april 17 2026	3	$3.5K	8,905	108	+8,796	open	—	04-17 12:26
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	4	$3.1K	2,786	2,786	+0	Up	+$732	05-04 08:31
tsla up or down on april 13 2026	2	$3.1K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	04-12 01:52
wti up or down on april 17 2026	21	$3.0K	8,956	344	+8,612	open	—	04-17 12:25
qqq up or down on april 16 2026	7	$2.8K	3,737	1,488	+2,249	open	—	04-16 11:03
qqq up or down on april 17 2026	2	$2.8K	5,495	0	+5,495	open	—	04-17 12:04
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	27	$2.7K	3,351	2,678	+673	Down	+$885	05-04 10:48
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	28	$2.6K	4,649	1,100	+3,549	Down	+$2,612	05-04 10:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 10:49:19	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	5,014	96¢	$4,829	0x985277…
06-12 10:28:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$42	0x0b853a…
06-12 10:04:10	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x293094…
06-12 09:58:54	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	211	96¢	$203	0x12c71f…
06-12 09:56:19	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xf9a604…
06-12 09:49:33	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x91e8c7…
06-12 09:25:55	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$5	0xa20447…
06-12 09:19:51	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0x6f2fbd…
06-12 09:18:57	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xb322c7…
06-12 09:10:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x9eabf5…
06-12 08:54:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x627df2…
06-12 08:54:07	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7ba2c0…
06-12 08:54:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5e2cd1…
06-12 08:54:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x56c3ad…
06-12 08:54:01	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa7ca0b…
06-12 08:54:01	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x822628…
06-12 08:36:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	330	96¢	$318	0x8ffb57…
06-12 08:30:37	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	58	96¢	$56	0xd4da20…
06-12 08:14:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x98a1f8…
06-12 08:12:00	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	192	96¢	$185	0xf7de3e…
06-12 07:42:13	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x1ed4c5…
06-12 07:31:13	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$193	0xa0f8b1…
06-12 07:23:28	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1,064	96¢	$1,024	0x2b6276…
06-12 07:20:39	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	746	96¢	$719	0x30138d…
06-12 07:05:21	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x586f91…
06-12 06:57:43	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$40	0x0110c7…
06-12 06:50:07	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	8,408	96¢	$8,097	0x44112f…
06-12 06:36:22	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x935bb4…
06-12 06:35:24	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	328	96¢	$316	0xf0f79b…
06-12 06:28:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$41	0x1dfc43…
06-12 06:24:16	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$40	0xf98583…
06-12 06:10:21	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x2e1ff7…
06-12 05:57:33	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$14	0x282659…
06-12 05:52:30	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x144213…
06-12 05:34:00	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x8d458d…
06-12 05:17:21	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0x3cdde9…
06-12 05:17:19	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	132	96¢	$127	0x0f2477…
06-12 05:17:18	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xfc3d51…
06-12 04:38:34	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0xf591ce…
06-12 04:15:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x297891…
06-12 03:37:01	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x4fd264…
06-12 02:48:10	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xa65d0b…
06-12 02:46:30	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x9c90fe…
06-12 02:37:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0xb03a79…
06-12 02:22:27	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0xcfcd3a…
06-12 02:04:33	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$193	0xe72c16…
06-12 01:30:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1,200	96¢	$1,156	0x0dbb94…
06-12 01:18:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	57	96¢	$55	0x4a4c72…
06-12 01:16:22	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	990	96¢	$954	0x61a673…
06-07 20:36:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$24	0x001d2b…
06-07 20:25:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	896	24¢	$215	0x228b6b…
06-07 20:25:06	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	12	24¢	$3	0x01f547…
06-07 20:25:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	42	24¢	$10	0x751a07…
06-07 20:19:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x10f435…
06-07 20:09:18	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	500	41¢	$206	0xf8163f…
06-07 20:08:06	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	1,000	45¢	$449	0x889275…
06-07 20:05:54	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	204	32¢	$66	0xa7e14b…
06-07 20:05:36	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x4045ce…
06-07 20:05:34	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	250	32¢	$80	0x4b3096…
06-07 20:05:31	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x96073a…
06-07 20:05:27	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	449	32¢	$145	0x494940…
06-07 20:02:42	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	1,000	37¢	$370	0x9b50e6…
06-07 20:01:43	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	500	35¢	$177	0x7ad687…
05-31 19:19:20	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	387	84¢	$325	0xd13714…
05-31 14:35:31	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	62	84¢	$52	0xf55518…
05-31 14:15:15	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	240	84¢	$202	0x44318f…
05-31 12:35:09	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	111	84¢	$93	0xcd4bec…
05-31 08:06:26	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xa1af8f…
05-31 08:06:24	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x49e626…
05-31 08:06:23	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x6a79c3…
05-31 07:56:17	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x66fff9…
05-31 07:56:12	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x703e8a…
05-31 07:56:10	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x4721e4…
05-31 00:55:37	open up or down on june 1 2026	Up	BUY	159	50¢	$80	0x717f25…
05-31 00:54:20	Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 1?	Up	BUY	159	51¢	$81	0xa4fb5a…
05-27 06:25:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	24¢	$120	0x6e4b26…
05-19 22:16:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	94	79¢	$74	0x71d4c3…
05-19 21:37:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	246	79¢	$194	0xe4e319…
05-19 21:37:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	660	79¢	$522	0x4384a6…
05-19 19:20:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	972	78¢	$758	0xc006cd…
05-19 07:03:57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$480	0x18498f…
05-18 22:42:14	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	207	91¢	$188	0x9cb545…
05-18 22:13:32	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0xdced8e…
05-18 22:11:41	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0xbd64ce…
05-18 22:09:53	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	91¢	$21	0x7f139e…
05-18 22:08:03	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	91¢	$16	0xa58f18…
05-18 21:12:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xace7a6…
05-18 21:10:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	6	44¢	$3	0xf3dcf0…
05-18 21:09:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	75	44¢	$33	0xd65165…
05-18 21:07:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x98c049…
05-18 21:05:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	6	44¢	$3	0x10d70c…
05-18 21:00:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x616997…
05-18 20:56:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0xe48623…
05-18 20:55:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xbb809b…
05-18 20:53:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x62e2e6…
05-18 20:01:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	109	82¢	$89	0x5812cb…
05-18 20:01:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	148	82¢	$121	0x01168f…
05-18 19:28:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	1,674	88¢	$1,473	0xa40b72…
05-18 19:24:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	2,700	99¢	$2,671	0xcc116a…
05-18 19:17:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xc4107d…