Focused-Fat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$387

Unrealized P&L

+$24

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$102.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.11K

Open exposure

$2.54K

1 position

First seen

2026-02-14

last 10-26 04:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Politics

46% 100% +$200

Other

44% 100% +$156

Tech

5% 100% +$5

Sports

2% 100% +$2

Crypto

2% 100% +$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No		+2,552	$2,519	100¢	$2.5K	+$24	10-26 04:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	1	$2.5K	2,552	+2,552	open	—	10-26 04:09
Trump out as President by September 30?	8	$2.5K	2,520	+2,520	No	+$18	09-18 21:43
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2.5K	2,502	+2,502	No	+$10	09-10 21:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	1	$2.5K	2,493	+2,493	No	+$5	08-28 21:31
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	1	$2.5K	2,488	+2,488	No	+$7	08-12 07:00
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	1	$2.5K	2,481	+2,481	No	+$7	08-04 04:07
will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	1	$2.5K	2,473	+2,473	No	+$2	08-03 02:06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2.5K	2,471	+2,471	No	+$5	07-28 19:37
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?	1	$2.5K	2,464	+2,464	Yes	+$10	07-25 05:25
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	1	$2.4K	2,455	+2,455	Yes	+$7	07-21 20:46
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	1	$2.4K	2,448	+2,448	No	+$10	07-10 22:13
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	1	$2.4K	2,438	+2,438	Yes	+$2	07-07 19:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$2.4K	2,435	+2,435	No	+$5	07-04 05:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	1	$2.4K	2,431	+2,431	No	+$10	06-25 20:00
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	1	$2.4K	2,421	+2,421	No	+$5	06-21 20:12
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	2	$2.4K	2,416	+2,416	No	+$5	06-18 19:00
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	1	$2.4K	2,411	+2,411	Yes	+$2	06-17 22:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	3	$2.4K	2,408	+2,408	Yes	+$12	06-15 01:42
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	3	$2.4K	2,397	+2,397	No	+$3	06-12 19:46
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	1	$2.4K	2,394	+2,394	Yes	+$2	06-12 05:46
iran closes its airspace by june 8	1	$2.4K	2,392	+2,392	Yes	+$5	06-08 01:46
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	1	$2.4K	2,387	+2,387	Yes	+$7	06-05 12:22
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$2.4K	2,379	+2,379	No	+$24	06-02 22:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$2.4K	2,356	+2,356	No	+$2	06-01 18:45
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$2.3K	2,334	+2,334	No	+$12	05-20 23:02
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	1	$2.3K	2,323	+2,323	Yes	+$2	05-17 11:48
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	4	$2.3K	2,321	+2,321	No	+$5	05-15 04:42
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$2.3K	2,312	+2,312	No	+$5	05-11 03:38
Will Trump visit China by May 8?	1	$2.3K	2,307	+2,307	No	+$2	05-06 22:15
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$2.3K	2,305	+2,305	Yes	+$16	05-02 05:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 04:09:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	2,552	99¢	$2,519	0xdbcd0c…
09-18 21:43:43	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	229	99¢	$227	0xcb54cb…
09-18 18:35:37	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	1,200	99¢	$1,192	0x409a2e…
09-18 17:56:58	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xf72075…
09-18 17:31:57	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x98c0fb…
09-18 09:04:43	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xffdda5…
09-18 08:09:04	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x009ecb…
09-18 07:06:13	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	790	99¢	$784	0x805217…
09-18 06:44:09	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	235	99¢	$233	0x4f6561…
09-10 21:52:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,502	100¢	$2,492	0xebf46d…
08-28 21:31:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	BUY	2,493	100¢	$2,488	0xc99e2e…
08-12 07:00:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2,488	100¢	$2,481	0x6f697a…
08-04 04:07:15	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	2,481	100¢	$2,473	0x1fc971…
08-03 02:06:12	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	BUY	2,473	100¢	$2,471	0xd85da0…
07-28 19:37:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,471	100¢	$2,466	0x4583f2…
07-27 03:49:07	Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	BUY	1,204	100¢	$1,202	0x16c2a7…
07-25 05:25:43	Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	2,464	100¢	$2,454	0x46f000…
07-21 20:46:42	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	2,455	100¢	$2,447	0xe40617…
07-10 22:13:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	2,448	100¢	$2,438	0x3c344b…
07-07 19:42:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	2,438	100¢	$2,435	0x0b3ca5…
07-04 05:25:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,435	100¢	$2,431	0xb7011f…
06-25 20:00:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	2,431	100¢	$2,421	0x241eb1…
06-21 20:12:26	kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	No	BUY	2,421	100¢	$2,416	0x889ae3…
06-18 19:00:49	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	BUY	517	100¢	$516	0xd5f595…
06-18 18:47:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	BUY	1,899	100¢	$1,895	0xb52e7f…
06-17 22:01:07	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	2,411	100¢	$2,409	0xd3d659…
06-15 01:42:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,107	100¢	$1,102	0xc33742…
06-15 01:40:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x07b9ec…
06-15 01:14:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,269	100¢	$1,262	0xa7ce5a…
06-12 19:46:49	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	2,217	100¢	$2,215	0xa40557…
06-12 19:46:28	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0d618e…
06-12 19:44:28	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	178	100¢	$178	0xe241cf…
06-12 05:46:46	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,394	100¢	$2,392	0x8b42a5…
06-08 01:46:46	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	2,392	100¢	$2,387	0xc0e827…
06-05 12:22:28	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	2,387	100¢	$2,380	0xec54a7…
06-02 22:21:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,379	99¢	$2,355	0x7af6b7…
06-01 18:45:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	2,356	100¢	$2,354	0xf6edbb…
06-01 03:05:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1,514	100¢	$1,509	0x4061ee…
05-24 06:11:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	543	100¢	$541	0x48b731…
05-24 04:52:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	297	100¢	$296	0xb970ac…
05-24 03:06:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x623e95…
05-23 23:32:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	403	99¢	$400	0x14cf3a…
05-23 22:23:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0x1352f5…
05-23 22:23:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0xb8cf2a…
05-23 22:21:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	162	99¢	$161	0x2bc29b…
05-23 22:21:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	653	99¢	$648	0x3cb459…
05-20 23:02:55	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,534	100¢	$1,527	0xc8b710…
05-20 22:58:50	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xc45c0f…
05-20 22:48:37	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x167cc6…
05-20 22:43:55	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0x642464…
05-17 11:48:11	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	BUY	2,323	100¢	$2,321	0xba5372…
05-15 04:42:45	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$91	0xdd54bd…
05-15 04:38:05	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xeeb5b9…
05-15 04:35:54	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	1,901	100¢	$1,897	0x87787e…
05-14 19:57:55	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	327	100¢	$326	0x71099d…
05-14 19:46:00	Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	1,990	100¢	$1,986	0xe5ce13…
05-11 03:38:06	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,312	100¢	$2,307	0x60e9e4…
05-06 22:15:58	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	2,307	100¢	$2,305	0x0bc6b0…
05-02 05:51:44	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,305	99¢	$2,289	0x24725d…
04-21 11:10:14	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	2,289	99¢	$2,271	0x6cedae…
04-19 15:39:26	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	2,271	100¢	$2,269	0x94b232…
04-15 19:55:16	will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	No	BUY	286	100¢	$285	0x578dfa…
04-15 19:46:40	will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	No	BUY	797	100¢	$794	0xc156c5…
04-15 16:55:10	will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe85c12…
04-15 16:53:24	will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	No	BUY	1,183	100¢	$1,178	0xf6bb7b…
04-06 02:51:59	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,260	100¢	$2,253	0x3077aa…
03-20 19:09:45	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	2,153	99¢	$2,127	0xefaf0a…
03-20 19:08:47	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x705c13…
03-18 05:52:55	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	414	100¢	$412	0x2d2ae6…
03-14 06:49:53	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1,813	100¢	$1,806	0xbef510…
03-14 06:43:29	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$27	0x64cb30…
03-14 06:42:29	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	48	99¢	$47	0x2ec723…
03-14 06:41:07	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xc9c613…
03-14 06:38:35	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xa8d564…
03-14 06:36:07	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x3ad917…
03-14 06:33:17	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x524135…
03-14 06:29:47	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xebbf87…
03-14 06:29:39	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	210	99¢	$208	0x1d358a…
03-14 06:29:33	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xf8f969…
03-14 06:17:45	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x87f3a9…
03-14 06:16:19	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x399c0f…
03-14 06:16:15	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x1612f9…
03-12 18:29:51	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	2,213	100¢	$2,211	0x862c07…
03-08 16:09:13	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	536	100¢	$535	0x2d5615…
03-08 16:08:53	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	276	100¢	$275	0xf645c8…
03-08 16:08:39	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	401	100¢	$399	0xdfdc37…
03-08 16:08:27	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	556	100¢	$554	0xef5f88…
03-08 16:08:15	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	411	100¢	$409	0xac9d71…
03-08 16:08:11	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x4347cf…
03-08 16:08:07	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x8fbf6e…
03-05 20:31:01	will iran strike israel on march 3	Yes	BUY	2,202	100¢	$2,198	0xd40bb4…
02-14 05:04:53	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	2,198	97¢	$2,134	0xba129d…