Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.5%

Resolved

143

Trades

151

lifetime

Volume

$235

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-07-23

last 10-29 03:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

81% 55% -$3

Politics

14% 68% +$6

Tech

3% 75% +$7

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	2	$4	12	+12	Yes	+$5	09-12 18:46
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-23 13:27
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-19 07:33
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-11 20:04
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-01 22:35
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $195 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-23 00:32
meta up or down on september 17 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Up	+$2	09-16 23:24
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-10 09:53
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-16 06:53
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-08 17:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	09-02 06:13
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	09-16 15:24
spx up or down on august 11 2026	1	$2	6	+6	Down	+$4	08-11 13:23
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	09-15 02:33
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-21 21:39
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	09-08 06:00
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	+$4	08-02 06:41
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-08 15:47
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-05 16:27
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-18 12:50
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-22 12:29
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-19 15:54
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-02 06:41
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-02 15:58
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	08-03 00:01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	+$5	08-04 08:25
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-13 14:06
will warsh say inflation 20 times during july press conference 20260720204109028	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	07-29 14:11
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	08-12 13:30
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?	1	$2	8	+8	No	+$6	09-01 17:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 03:11:47	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xcb621f…
10-22 00:41:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x6bc1a2…
10-21 16:03:09	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x060500…
10-21 08:02:33	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb55c1c…
10-17 23:57:30	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xace0d5…
10-17 15:55:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x877575…
10-17 04:57:44	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6557ce…
10-16 18:17:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd7bd35…
10-16 08:45:30	will rklb reach 58 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x2b5459…
10-16 00:45:13	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x615ba7…
10-15 16:43:50	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xebb85d…
10-15 08:43:40	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x65528a…
10-15 00:37:19	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x15a995…
10-14 04:36:29	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc7e254…
10-13 20:22:54	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x82b084…
10-11 23:49:20	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $173 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x129c6b…
10-11 15:48:49	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x21ab64…
10-11 07:34:39	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xbb9d8e…
10-10 11:08:57	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb0f111…
10-10 02:01:18	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x998e34…
10-09 17:51:13	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x4b108b…
10-09 17:44:53	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1e130c…
10-09 09:40:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1cb06a…
10-08 22:45:00	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xabd901…
10-08 14:41:45	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xd07d09…
10-08 06:26:26	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x32b475…
10-07 22:25:04	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8c61c4…
10-07 14:24:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfdf446…
10-07 05:59:27	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xac1603…
10-06 09:59:13	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 6?	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xbb1bed…
10-06 01:59:02	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x4c5c91…
10-05 17:52:10	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x5bf5c2…
10-05 09:49:26	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xa8f6c4…
10-05 00:29:05	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $177.50 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x61b3a5…
10-04 16:03:26	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xed3fcb…
10-04 06:12:40	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb91571…
10-03 17:46:06	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5e29cc…
10-03 05:37:45	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf87fcc…
10-02 21:21:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa90890…
10-02 12:06:30	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xcd4fd4…
10-02 03:52:39	spy up or down on october 2 2026	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x892b8a…
10-01 19:45:59	Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xec1613…
10-01 11:40:47	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xb4bd2c…
10-01 03:39:41	trump names ai czar by october 4 2026 20260928	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xdb3ea6…
09-30 19:36:05	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x586a0d…
09-30 11:33:50	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x40d85f…
09-30 03:33:27	spy up or down on september 30 2026	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x079b23…
09-29 19:33:14	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x8e2bbf…
09-29 11:33:03	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x25bfcb…
09-29 03:32:57	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa61a84…
09-28 07:02:30	Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf52dea…
09-27 22:44:42	will ewy dip to 183 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa519ed…
09-27 14:20:38	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfe8a9c…
09-27 06:07:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x8d234e…
09-26 21:35:21	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x1efb6c…
09-26 10:35:57	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x41c579…
09-26 02:11:39	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x183e24…
09-25 18:03:21	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfee72e…
09-25 10:03:15	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x75ac33…
09-25 01:58:15	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x70e197…
09-24 17:48:59	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xec7d59…
09-24 05:48:48	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xb40d17…
09-23 21:48:40	spx up or down on september 24 2026	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x43dfd1…
09-23 00:32:16	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $195 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xe9ea85…
09-22 12:29:37	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x3c4b7c…
09-22 04:16:39	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x350ff7…
09-21 20:16:30	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xef22f5…
09-20 12:03:16	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x2f1b6c…
09-19 07:33:25	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x206e21…
09-18 22:54:22	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xb132c6…
09-18 12:50:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xd554bd…
09-16 23:24:48	meta up or down on september 17 2026	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x5a947b…
09-16 15:24:27	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xdaeae7…
09-16 06:53:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x3bc8ad…
09-15 22:53:00	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x83f26b…
09-15 02:33:55	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x9b178d…
09-12 18:46:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xe3fd73…
09-12 06:56:27	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x9f274f…
09-11 20:04:25	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x52d4c6…
09-11 19:48:13	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x920bcf…
09-10 09:53:01	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xc90910…
09-10 01:52:51	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x880492…
09-08 17:16:55	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xe2622f…
09-08 15:47:46	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x1c5de4…
09-08 06:00:45	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x5ca13d…
09-07 21:07:16	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x81599f…
09-07 12:19:37	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x5578ae…
09-03 08:31:03	spx up or down on september 3 2026	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x460b11…
09-02 23:21:52	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x718508…
09-02 14:31:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x59b5d3…
09-02 06:13:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x408e70…
09-01 17:22:21	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x1c1229…
09-01 08:23:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x0b7c72…
08-26 22:01:01	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x0ffc70…
08-22 05:40:12	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x782291…
08-21 21:39:07	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xbf036b…
08-20 13:13:06	Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x9010e0…
08-19 15:54:16	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x34b947…
08-17 19:32:22	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xbed6cd…
08-17 10:58:37	will abnb dip to 178 by august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xfb278b…