Weird-Sensitive — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$147

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.2%

Resolved

193

Trades

282

lifetime

Volume

$754

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-09 19:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Other

59% 16% -$124

Crypto

24% 33% -$27

Politics

12% 17% +$17

Sports

4% 29% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx up or down on april 7 2026	5	$54	83	83	+0	Up	+$38	04-07 21:16
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by february 20	3	$45	71	71	+0	Yes	+$35	02-20 15:11
will nvda dip to 144 in february	2	$31	113	113	+0	No	+$11	02-05 22:55
US recession by end of 2026?	2	$26	100	100	+0	open	—	10-09 19:33
fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 total 0pt5	2	$25	149	0	+149	Over	-$25	06-23 22:08
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	3	$23	30	50	-20	No	+$7	01-21 20:18
fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	2	$23	81	0	+81	Canada	-$23	06-28 17:37
spx up or down on april 2 2026	2	$23	45	45	+0	Up	+$3	04-02 19:19
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	3	$20	30	30	+0	No	+$4	06-28 19:48
ndx up or down on april 10 2026	2	$18	23	23	+0	Up	-$2	04-10 16:34
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	3	$12	56	0	+56	Seahawks	-$12	02-09 01:36
spx up or down on january 26 2026	4	$12	207	0	+207	Up	-$12	01-26 19:23
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	2	$12	70	0	+70	No	-$12	06-28 16:50
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	2	$11	333	310	+24	No	+$1	04-20 13:58
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$10	116	116	+0	No	+$0	06-16 01:16
nvda up or down on january 28 2026	1	$10	77	0	+77	Up	-$10	01-28 17:34
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on May 29?	1	$10	83	0	+83	Yes	-$10	05-28 15:58
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$10	36	0	+36	No	-$10	01-14 23:34
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$9	68	63	+5	No	-$1	04-20 13:57
nvda close above 175 on february 4 2026	3	$9	10	10	+0	No	+$5	02-04 21:01
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?	2	$8	44	0	+44	No	-$8	06-12 15:16
meta quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 28 2026 8pt19	2	$8	73	0	+73	Yes	-$8	01-27 19:58
will bitcoin dip to 68k february 2 8	2	$8	9	9	+0	Yes	+$6	02-05 15:02
fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	2	$8	15	15	+0	England	+$4	07-01 17:15
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May?	3	$7	11	11	+0	No	-$1	05-13 18:37
spx up or down on january 27 2026	3	$6	266	0	+266	Up	-$6	01-27 19:32
spx up or down on january 28 2026	2	$6	12	0	+12	Down	+$6	01-28 17:32
spx up or down on march 27 2026	3	$6	44	0	+44	Down	-$6	03-27 16:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 16:45 UTC	4	$6	36	36	+0	Up	+$2	02-01 16:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 21:15 UTC	4	$5	8	8	+0	Down	+$1	02-07 21:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 19:33:35	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x8247b8…
07-01 17:20:52	Exact Score: England 0 - 3 DR Congo?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x48dded…
07-01 17:20:10	Exact Score: England 0 - 2 DR Congo?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x81b49d…
07-01 17:15:04	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	DR Congo	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0x286220…
07-01 14:41:53	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	DR Congo	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x7c0589…
06-29 20:40:02	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xbfaaed…
06-28 19:48:26	Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	30	39¢	$12	0x4bb19c…
06-28 17:37:05	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	South Africa	BUY	41	29¢	$12	0x0d1037…
06-28 17:31:37	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	South Africa	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0xe715b8…
06-28 16:50:20	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x32e635…
06-28 06:42:01	Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x67c5d3…
06-28 02:24:47	Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xbb3dff…
06-28 02:24:38	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x122c12…
06-27 20:28:43	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x7c4c0f…
06-27 20:24:44	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x0d9927…
06-27 00:42:01	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd94719…
06-25 13:14:37	spx up or down on june 25 2026	Down	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x536957…
06-23 22:08:16	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 total 0pt5	Under	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x7762ff…
06-23 19:52:10	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 total 0pt5	Under	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x3ad4e8…
06-23 18:58:52	Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x28e0cd…
06-23 00:08:40	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd4e234…
06-23 00:08:02	Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x5ce70c…
06-23 00:07:35	Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x829b38…
06-20 00:54:10	Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x5a8733…
06-20 00:52:05	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xff5426…
06-17 18:01:14	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xb0f495…
06-17 01:41:28	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0x98d9e9…
06-16 21:21:20	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x320972…
06-16 01:16:10	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	116	4¢	$5	0xfe8dfd…
06-16 01:16:06	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xb02450…
06-16 01:03:00	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xba6d2d…
06-15 02:28:42	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x95552e…
06-15 02:26:06	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Alex Pereira	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x493db7…
06-15 02:25:51	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x4468f6…
06-15 02:25:33	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x88316f…
06-14 18:03:45	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0xa4f8c0…
06-14 17:09:36	Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x2c24e9…
06-14 17:08:25	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0xb71eff…
06-13 22:15:37	Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x69baa2…
06-12 15:16:28	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xf30f21…
06-12 14:01:51	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x0c7c31…
06-12 13:57:49	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc56c2f…
06-12 13:56:33	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x09d986…
06-12 13:56:27	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?	Yes	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0x6d9d99…
06-11 20:09:49	Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x8eea43…
06-11 16:15:48	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	116	4¢	$5	0xa7a64a…
05-28 15:58:32	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on May 29?	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x12770e…
05-28 15:57:43	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 28?	No	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0xef7269…
05-27 19:45:42	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x4576ad…
05-13 18:38:01	Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	108	3¢	$3	0x8e0316…
05-13 18:37:33	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May?	Yes	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0x26a7d0…
05-07 19:42:46	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x4f8b9f…
05-07 19:42:34	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xc503cb…
04-28 19:18:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x8e4b70…
04-27 19:20:56	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xcfcd61…
04-27 18:55:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x504b5a…
04-22 20:00:42	tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x3999c5…
04-20 14:34:42	spy closes above 700 on april 20 2026	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x13c428…
04-20 13:58:02	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	310	2¢	$6	0xe5d129…
04-20 13:57:56	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	63	7¢	$4	0xa45c07…
04-17 18:22:22	spx up or down on april 17 2026	Down	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0x962d3c…
04-15 15:48:32	qqq up or down on april 15 2026	Down	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x5a61d2…
04-13 19:42:33	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0xf07c49…
04-13 19:28:37	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	333	2¢	$5	0xf364e9…
04-10 16:35:13	qqq up or down on april 10 2026	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xc59f07…
04-10 16:34:31	ndx up or down on april 10 2026	Down	SELL	23	37¢	$8	0xe0c742…
04-10 16:06:29	ndx up or down on april 10 2026	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x1cf5af…
04-07 21:16:41	spx up or down on april 7 2026	Up	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x7fe552…
04-07 18:28:35	spx up or down on april 7 2026	Up	SELL	41	12¢	$5	0xf07dde…
04-07 15:13:33	spx up or down on april 7 2026	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xce5cb7…
04-07 15:09:29	spx up or down on april 7 2026	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd462ae…
04-07 14:55:39	spx up or down on april 7 2026	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xc47274…
04-02 19:19:01	spx up or down on april 2 2026	Up	SELL	45	29¢	$13	0x72a455…
04-02 17:50:47	spx up or down on april 2 2026	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x3db0c3…
03-27 16:10:03	spx up or down on march 27 2026	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x15c4fc…
03-27 14:02:25	spx up or down on march 27 2026	Up	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x6e8bd4…
03-27 13:54:29	spx up or down on march 27 2026	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x4b2c5c…
03-23 15:48:11	spx up or down on march 23 2026	Down	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0x82f955…
02-20 16:20:06	spx up or down on february 20 2026	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xea1e7d…
02-20 15:11:14	will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by february 20	Yes	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x8ef2fd…
02-20 04:50:20	will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by february 20	Yes	SELL	35	10¢	$4	0xe797a4…
02-19 15:59:38	will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by february 20	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xa3cf69…
02-18 14:12:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x088da5…
02-17 16:30:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x87d21e…
02-17 16:17:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x6dc710…
02-16 20:21:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x6e8a1b…
02-16 20:16:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xc16316…
02-16 01:24:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 01:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1d062b…
02-16 01:24:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 01:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd2eff1…
02-16 01:22:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 01:20 UTC	Down	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xc02e5c…
02-16 01:20:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 01:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb002d4…
02-16 01:19:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 01:15 UTC	Down	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x52fef8…
02-16 01:18:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 01:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0a9c20…
02-15 06:55:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xdc56ee…
02-15 06:55:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 06:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x4ce444…
02-15 01:59:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 01:55 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x604936…
02-15 01:58:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 01:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x82de14…
02-13 21:18:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2d08e3…
02-13 21:10:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 21:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9780d2…
02-13 19:38:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 19:35 UTC	Down	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x88c8a0…