Dense-Shoat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$61

Unrealized P&L

-$30

Hit rate

71.5%

Resolved

183

Trades

1,004

lifetime

Volume

$41.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$52

1 position

First seen

2026-02-25

last 10-26 09:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Crypto

39% 69% +$105

Other

27% 74% -$63

Tech

25% 40% -$155

Politics

9% 100% +$51

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes		+100	$83	52¢	$52	-$30	10-12 11:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	90	$4.9K	3,066	3,066	+0	Yes	-$84	05-21 08:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	34	$3.5K	1,969	2,160	-191	No	+$75	06-01 01:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	32	$3.2K	1,685	1,685	+0	Yes	+$29	03-25 04:06
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	62	$2.6K	1,419	1,419	+0	Yes	-$48	06-30 12:29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	28	$2.5K	1,363	1,363	+0	No	+$58	07-29 18:10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	22	$1.7K	1,096	1,096	+0	Yes	+$13	06-25 20:33
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	32	$1.6K	1,484	1,274	+210	Yes	-$102	06-01 07:43
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	10	$1.6K	871	871	+0	open	—	07-01 09:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	19	$1.6K	810	810	+0	No	+$19	05-23 00:39
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	36	$1.4K	977	700	+277	Yes	+$25	08-19 22:09
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	13	$1.3K	850	792	+58	Yes	+$29	05-30 11:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	24	$1.2K	762	762	+0	Yes	+$12	05-28 14:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$922	500	500	+0	No	+$20	05-29 20:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$786	400	400	+0	No	+$2	05-18 02:48
bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	12	$743	400	400	+0	Yes	+$38	09-17 15:52
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	10	$708	400	400	+0	Yes	+$10	08-17 16:51
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	16	$679	345	345	-0	Yes	+$2	04-14 03:34
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?	8	$591	300	300	+0	Yes	+$8	09-13 15:25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	5	$496	300	300	+0	Yes	-$50	07-02 20:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14?	4	$449	230	230	+0	Yes	+$8	09-14 15:03
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$405	208	208	+0	Yes	+$6	03-05 06:55
bitcoin above 62k on july 10 2026	2	$397	200	200	+0	Yes	+$2	07-10 14:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17?	5	$395	200	200	+0	Yes	+$4	09-17 14:12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$393	200	200	+0	No	+$1	07-31 09:49
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	5	$392	248	248	+0	No	-$83	10-24 16:00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$371	310	310	+0	No	+$13	08-12 12:33
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	10	$370	191	191	+0	Yes	+$0	06-08 11:56
bitcoin above 62k on june 19 2026	14	$364	244	141	+103	Yes	+$7	06-19 14:13
will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	23	$325	297	287	+10	No	-$17	06-22 14:27
bitcoin above 66k on june 17 2026	19	$309	495	495	+0	No	-$11	06-17 15:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 09:03:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x309118…
10-25 11:44:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?	Yes	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0x6753b3…
10-25 11:44:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x0d5016…
10-25 11:42:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?	Yes	SELL	68	86¢	$59	0x2bb18b…
10-24 16:02:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0xad3afb…
10-24 16:00:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x9935b7…
10-24 15:20:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x8b9eac…
10-24 15:05:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	Yes	SELL	148	37¢	$55	0xde72ba…
10-24 13:41:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x0c1538…
10-24 13:18:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0x05bac8…
10-23 04:18:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x18b133…
10-23 04:17:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	70¢	$13	0x0a67a9…
10-23 04:08:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	89	94¢	$84	0x88f752…
10-23 03:48:18	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	70¢	$46	0xfd79be…
10-23 03:36:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0xab109f…
10-16 07:51:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0x3ab649…
10-16 07:50:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	87	86¢	$75	0xfe3e3a…
10-12 13:30:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7cc633…
10-12 13:15:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x68b067…
10-12 11:34:57	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	83¢	$24	0xe8675f…
10-12 11:34:57	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	72	83¢	$59	0x7fbb20…
10-11 09:09:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 11?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xe9fc84…
09-21 09:33:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x3f8a93…
09-21 07:30:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xcbf190…
09-21 04:19:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 21?	Yes	BUY	80	90¢	$72	0xdb1d69…
09-21 04:11:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 21?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xe88719…
09-20 14:05:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 20?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xdefdac…
09-20 08:14:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 20?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xad8003…
09-19 15:12:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xdfae70…
09-19 11:00:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xe28c30…
09-19 09:46:26	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xd96ea3…
09-18 10:42:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xf01c39…
09-18 08:21:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 18?	Yes	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0x4fed13…
09-18 05:31:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xbb6fc1…
09-17 16:07:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x1ba19e…
09-17 15:52:42	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	SELL	116	100¢	$116	0xd059f5…
09-17 15:51:30	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	SELL	84	100¢	$84	0xe86e77…
09-17 15:39:07	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	BUY	76	99¢	$75	0x16711b…
09-17 15:38:15	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0x05d6aa…
09-17 14:12:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x99f669…
09-17 14:03:22	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xddf9d3…
09-17 13:53:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 17?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0xf33a87…
09-17 13:18:31	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	SELL	67	91¢	$61	0xdb6a12…
09-17 13:12:57	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	SELL	14	91¢	$13	0x7c03b1…
09-17 13:12:46	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x5ba1b5…
09-17 13:12:06	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0xc50f03…
09-17 07:39:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17?	Yes	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0x1dde32…
09-17 07:31:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x508d0e…
09-17 07:20:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$5	0x61493e…
09-17 07:19:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17?	Yes	BUY	62	98¢	$60	0xac9cb6…
09-17 04:10:19	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	BUY	95	68¢	$65	0x0a9a3c…
09-17 04:10:15	bitcoin above 76k on september 17 2026	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x3cc3a9…
09-16 08:19:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	300	12¢	$36	0xc095a7…
09-14 15:03:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x6a4790…
09-14 11:35:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xd2a012…
09-14 10:16:42	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xc690c5…
09-14 06:03:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x5a0691…
09-13 19:30:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14?	Yes	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x7de183…
09-13 15:50:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 13?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x0fb895…
09-13 15:25:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x0f9b55…
09-13 13:43:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 13?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x488249…
09-13 09:15:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?	Yes	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x2ec6f5…
09-13 09:13:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?	Yes	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x1440eb…
09-13 09:03:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?	Yes	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xaa62f6…
09-13 08:56:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?	Yes	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xd525c1…
09-13 08:49:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x18dfb4…
09-13 08:42:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?	Yes	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0xa43d01…
09-13 07:28:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xb7ad6f…
09-12 03:34:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 12?	Yes	BUY	94	97¢	$91	0x25d042…
09-12 03:26:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 12?	Yes	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x09175e…
08-29 19:57:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x7c80d2…
08-19 22:09:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	64	95¢	$61	0x795a8a…
08-19 16:50:09	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xe032d4…
08-19 16:45:21	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	27	95¢	$25	0x5f4772…
08-17 16:51:30	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	36	93¢	$33	0xa61b01…
08-17 16:38:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	64	93¢	$60	0xc64a11…
08-16 15:57:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x7c707f…
08-15 10:45:19	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x03ba28…
08-14 18:25:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x500653…
08-14 15:51:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x554b9d…
08-14 15:51:09	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	62	89¢	$55	0x07411f…
08-14 15:51:07	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	38	89¢	$34	0x81a516…
08-14 14:07:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x6317dc…
08-14 10:38:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x2d33f0…
08-14 10:28:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x1e3094…
08-14 09:24:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xfe71c9…
08-14 09:02:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	62	96¢	$59	0x002b41…
08-14 08:38:00	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7d222a…
08-14 08:18:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	15	96¢	$15	0xcef656…
08-14 08:17:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x3eaa7f…
08-14 07:59:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	45	96¢	$44	0xff7fd9…
08-13 09:43:42	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	200	68¢	$136	0x9702ba…
08-12 12:33:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	66¢	$132	0xf0f4e8…
08-10 15:44:42	bitcoin above 64k on august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	64	100¢	$63	0x289656…
08-10 14:29:42	bitcoin above 64k on august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	64	97¢	$62	0x01b580…
08-10 13:07:28	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x94b2b5…
08-10 11:58:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x05431d…
08-10 09:00:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xe2f0eb…
08-09 17:34:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x816c31…
08-07 15:25:22	bitcoin above 64k on august 7 2026	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x2a1480…