Fearful-Riser — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.7%

Resolved

181

Trades

192

lifetime

Volume

$4.60K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 11-01 07:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 107 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 100% +$8

Other

43% 99% +$6

Tech

3% 100% +$1

Politics

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum above 1800 on june 25 2026	2	$82	82	0	+82	No	+$0	06-25 00:48
Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 15?	1	$65	65	0	+65	No	+$0	10-15 20:51
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 The Open Championship?	1	$63	63	0	+63	No	+$0	07-17 22:16
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	1	$63	63	0	+63	No	+$0	10-20 01:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	07-27 19:48
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	09-14 09:21
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	04-17 10:35
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	1	$59	59	0	+59	No	+$0	09-03 06:27
bitcoin above 74k on august 20 2026	1	$59	59	0	+59	No	+$0	08-20 03:48
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	06-03 05:20
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	09-17 21:01
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$54	54	0	+54	No	+$0	04-29 12:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 24?	1	$52	52	0	+52	Yes	+$0	08-23 11:23
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3?	1	$51	52	0	+52	No	+$0	05-01 21:02
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 7?	2	$50	50	0	+50	Yes	+$0	10-06 13:56
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-17 10:36
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24?	1	$49	49	0	+49	No	+$0	05-23 09:37
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?	2	$48	48	0	+48	Yes	+$0	05-19 14:48
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	04-17 10:37
israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	2	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	07-14 02:27
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 160 179	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	04-22 20:13
bitcoin above 68k on april 17	2	$44	22	22	+0	Yes	+$0	04-17 10:39
will bitcoin dip to 60k june 15 21 2026	1	$43	43	0	+43	No	+$0	06-21 05:33
bitcoin above 58k on july 5 2026	1	$42	42	0	+42	Yes	+$0	07-04 09:15
bitcoin above 80k on april 22	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	04-21 22:35
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	09-07 05:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	08-27 22:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8?	1	$39	39	0	+39	No	+$0	05-07 21:19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2?	1	$38	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	06-01 19:56
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	10-25 15:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 07:29:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 1?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x6d3e9f…
10-31 21:07:54	Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x25b8b0…
10-25 17:52:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xac75e5…
10-25 15:32:42	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x4ccb5e…
10-20 06:40:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf46251…
10-20 01:40:38	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0xeb1bb8…
10-15 20:51:26	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 15?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x9fee79…
10-11 06:18:36	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa79b02…
10-06 13:56:09	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 7?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbfab1e…
10-06 13:49:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 7?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x701515…
10-02 15:08:42	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd16ec7…
09-30 16:05:29	bitcoin above 90k on october 1 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xc1c922…
09-30 09:01:24	will bitcoin reach 90k in september 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$27	0x5e74fa…
09-28 21:27:08	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x23c882…
09-22 19:13:54	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd60362…
09-20 17:51:54	Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 14-20?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x95ec0a…
09-17 21:01:09	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x6f8896…
09-16 20:43:48	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xc7e451…
09-14 09:21:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x7429ce…
09-12 09:45:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 13?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x066fbc…
09-07 05:47:06	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x2da6f8…
09-06 09:17:45	Will AfD win fewer than 34 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1a0dc9…
09-03 06:27:27	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x1c565d…
08-31 13:01:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in August?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0235f1…
08-29 21:51:07	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xff27ae…
08-27 22:40:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0xda7967…
08-24 02:36:55	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5e2d02…
08-23 11:23:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xe55159…
08-22 14:25:42	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x80ed54…
08-20 03:48:19	bitcoin above 74k on august 20 2026	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x299101…
08-19 03:34:42	ethereum above 1800 on august 19 2026	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x0f9401…
08-13 23:57:30	bitcoin above 60k on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7baca1…
08-12 12:49:22	bitcoin above 68k on august 13 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x9bb0cc…
08-12 02:33:43	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0x223cf9…
08-06 23:53:24	will bitcoin dip to 63k on august 6	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x09c86c…
08-05 15:40:30	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xe01097…
08-01 14:56:06	will bitcoin dip to 58k july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xb30c97…
07-31 16:44:18	will spider man brand new day score at least 95 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026314	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xb4591a…
07-30 11:09:38	will wti dip to 70 in july 2026 from july 20	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xe67362…
07-28 13:19:23	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xae7423…
07-27 19:48:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xd42cc2…
07-24 07:21:25	will bitcoin dip to 58k july 20 26 2026	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x9c53d6…
07-24 05:23:09	bitcoin above 68k on july 24 2026	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x820e74…
07-19 16:44:48	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xb18487…
07-17 22:16:42	Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0xa23865…
07-14 02:27:05	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x9e2fcd…
07-13 13:19:43	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9c00ff…
07-12 21:18:55	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xaebc07…
07-12 07:09:17	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0xadda21…
07-12 01:01:34	will bitcoin dip to 58k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xfa9820…
07-10 12:26:58	will bitcoin dip to 56k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x47ab91…
07-08 02:03:05	will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 7	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xcdad97…
07-06 03:37:35	bitcoin above 66k on july 6 2026	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x8c6c6a…
07-05 06:20:08	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd72e89…
07-04 18:44:11	Will White House post 200+ posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xc6fba8…
07-04 16:58:05	will ethereum reach 2000 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4ad607…
07-04 09:15:47	bitcoin above 58k on july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x216ed2…
07-03 21:19:46	will bitcoin dip to 54k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb29444…
07-03 05:20:25	will bitcoin dip to 48k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x24f55c…
07-02 10:14:50	bitcoin above 56k on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x45b522…
07-02 08:30:55	bitcoin above 64k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x114f78…
07-01 13:39:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 8	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xcfe746…
07-01 13:28:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xa97452…
06-30 21:05:49	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2be00a…
06-25 08:46:10	bitcoin above 66k on june 26 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe47ce1…
06-25 00:48:41	ethereum above 1800 on june 25 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x40a355…
06-24 22:27:22	ethereum above 1800 on june 25 2026	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xc53b4d…
06-23 09:24:16	bitcoin above 70k on june 25 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x17dbeb…
06-22 08:12:25	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x82e59d…
06-21 05:33:14	will bitcoin dip to 60k june 15 21 2026	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x903480…
06-06 18:34:48	Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xcf65e4…
06-03 18:00:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa65504…
06-03 05:20:25	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x2cfb12…
06-02 12:53:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x87780d…
06-01 22:11:05	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x9f796c…
06-01 19:56:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x52c895…
06-01 18:56:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc4bd94…
06-01 01:10:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4f3c3c…
05-30 23:02:16	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9156cd…
05-30 05:10:19	Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x53a5a4…
05-29 16:15:47	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x3c551e…
05-29 07:13:17	Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x512cf3…
05-29 04:14:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x011e2b…
05-28 07:27:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xd3f326…
05-28 04:39:16	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd6fdfd…
05-27 12:07:07	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xbf8cb1…
05-27 05:48:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x97da60…
05-26 18:07:02	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd8488d…
05-26 09:52:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x72b5e2…
05-26 03:47:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x50eb45…
05-25 13:46:44	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x24f09b…
05-24 21:23:05	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf61270…
05-24 18:52:28	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe127a2…
05-24 04:58:18	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xc84b3f…
05-23 17:03:24	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x4ab1ff…
05-23 09:37:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0xdbf988…
05-22 04:11:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xa51c74…
05-21 21:25:01	Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc18e40…
05-21 15:08:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xe8bdae…
05-21 09:07:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xc35145…