Extra-Small-Caftan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$82

Hit rate

21.6%

Resolved

172

Trades

924

lifetime

Volume

$79.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$86

Open exposure

$420

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-29 14:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Other

82% 44% +$9

Crypto

7% 25% -$99

Politics

6% 60% +$451

Sports

4% 33% -$286

Tech

1% 33% -$20

Pop-Culture

1% 71% -$53

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	+172	$150	95¢	$163	+$13	05-14 10:46
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+99	$26	86¢	$85	+$60	04-29 13:24
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	+79	$82	98¢	$78	-$4	05-01 11:44
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+250	$182	14¢	$34	-$148	04-29 20:39
Will Cristiano Ronaldo join the Saudi Pro League next?	Yes	+43	$22	52¢	$22	+$0	10-27 10:47
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	+44	$20	48¢	$21	+$1	10-17 10:55
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	+117	$14	12¢	$13	-$1	08-02 10:51
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	+165	$6	2¢	$3	-$4	04-30 04:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cbb pvam fl 2026 03 20 spread home 35pt5	14	$4.2K	4,188	4,188	+0	Florida Gators	-$14	03-20 23:52
cbb uk iowast 2026 03 22 total 146pt5	22	$4.1K	3,915	3,915	+0	Under	-$10	03-21 20:03
cbb cabap kan 2026 03 20 spread home 13pt5	50	$2.9K	2,932	2,932	+0	California Baptist Lancers	-$10	03-20 17:49
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	31	$2.8K	2,150	2,150	+0	No	-$3	04-28 23:07
cbb queen pur 2026 03 20 spread home 25pt5	17	$2.3K	2,366	2,366	+0	Purdue Boilermakers	-$10	03-20 19:25
cbb wrght vir 2026 03 20 total 145pt5	8	$2.0K	2,055	2,055	+0	Over	-$10	03-19 19:47
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 spread home 4pt5	6	$2.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Connecticut Huskies	+$0	03-22 14:23
cbb niowa stjohn 2026 03 20 total 131pt5	8	$2.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Over	+$0	03-19 17:23
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?	21	$2.0K	983	1,183	-200	No	-$44	04-29 09:13
cbb utahst arz 2026 03 22	4	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	Arizona Wildcats	-$6	03-20 23:52
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 total 3pt5	55	$1.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	Under	-$20	04-08 17:27
Ben Pasternak jailed?	23	$1.5K	940	940	+0	open	—	04-28 21:41
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?	17	$1.4K	651	851	-200	No	-$10	03-08 00:03
ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 total 2pt5	4	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	$0	04-14 16:27
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 btts	19	$1.3K	1,182	1,182	+0	No	-$30	04-08 18:42
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	17	$1.3K	793	1,038	-245	Yes	+$416	02-13 13:44
ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 btts	37	$1.3K	1,000	985	+15	No	$0	04-08 17:53
ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	04-08 13:56
cbb iowa fl 2026 03 22 spread home 10pt5	17	$1.2K	1,198	1,198	+0	Iowa Hawkeyes	-$4	03-22 14:28
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	22	$1.2K	995	1,005	-10	Yes	-$1	03-07 22:50
cbb stjohn kan 2026 03 22 spread away 3pt5	8	$1.1K	1,107	1,107	+0	Kansas Jayhawks	+$0	03-21 16:25
cbb txtech ala 2026 03 22 spread home 1pt5	4	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Alabama Crimson Tide	+$0	03-22 14:09
spx up or down on march 9 2026	8	$1.1K	585	563	+22	Up	-$20	03-09 18:00
cbb hpnt ark 2026 03 21 total 168pt5	7	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	Over	+$0	03-21 11:44
cbb cabap kan 2026 03 20 total 138pt5	2	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	-$40	03-19 16:07
over 15m committed to the ranger public sale	1	$1000	1,021	0	+1,021	Yes	+$21	01-09 10:42
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?	2	$1000	500	500	+0	No	+$0	02-13 13:57
cbb mia pur 2026 03 22 total 147pt5	6	$999	999	999	+0	Over	+$0	03-21 23:46
cbb txtech ala 2026 03 22 total 164pt5	3	$991	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	-$29	03-22 20:45
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5	3	$990	1,000	1,000	+0	Over	+$10	04-26 16:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 14:12:40	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x7bbbed…
10-29 14:11:17	Bulls vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x73b545…
10-29 14:10:16	Magic vs. Raptors	Raptors	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x600a19…
10-29 14:09:19	Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x038e23…
10-29 14:07:17	Cavaliers vs. Hawks	Cavaliers	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x4cc5e2…
10-27 10:49:23	Jumper listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE?	Yes	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0xfce832…
10-27 10:47:56	Will Cristiano Ronaldo join the Saudi Pro League next?	Yes	BUY	43	51¢	$22	0x27ac2a…
10-17 10:55:12	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x5c7e13…
10-17 10:46:39	will kylian mbappe attend the 2026 ballon d or ceremony 20261016121846566	Yes	BUY	51	68¢	$35	0x4438ff…
10-17 10:46:24	will michael owen attend the 2026 ballon dor ceremony	Yes	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x509ed9…
10-17 10:46:06	will sergio ramos attend the 2026 ballon dor ceremony	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x0a36c6…
10-17 10:43:47	will lionel messi attend the 2026 ballon d or ceremony 20261016121846566	Yes	BUY	88	28¢	$25	0x1d337f…
10-17 10:31:12	Will $ANSEM reach $0.6 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	485	7¢	$34	0xf781ea…
09-17 10:15:39	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $550B by September 30?	No	BUY	88	85¢	$75	0x3f45a4…
09-17 10:14:24	Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $130B by September 30?	No	BUY	49	81¢	$40	0x929ebb…
09-17 10:10:40	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by September 30?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x31a3f9…
09-17 10:08:39	Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by September 30?	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0x57ab1c…
08-02 10:56:24	will stripes valuation hit high 200b by august 31 20260730184041311	No	BUY	312	96¢	$300	0x4e8ad6…
08-02 10:51:51	Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	BUY	117	12¢	$14	0x616571…
08-02 10:51:33	Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0x6fcc10…
08-02 10:50:33	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt175t by august 31 20260730182630760	No	BUY	164	9¢	$15	0xd25a80…
08-02 10:50:12	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt2t by august 31 20260730182630759	No	BUY	17	49¢	$8	0x0c3f13…
08-02 10:49:35	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by august 31 20260730182630756	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xe1dc90…
08-02 10:47:00	stripe vs databricks greater valuation growth august 2026 20260801001801595	Databricks	BUY	101	84¢	$85	0x85502f…
08-02 10:45:45	will stripes valuation hit low 150b by august 31 20260730184041317	No	BUY	326	92¢	$300	0x318997…
08-02 10:43:42	will canvas valuation hit high 50b by august 31 20260730190051266	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x4b25aa…
08-02 10:43:32	will canvas valuation hit high 60b by august 31 20260730190051265	No	BUY	109	99¢	$108	0xc677fa…
08-02 10:42:18	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by august 31 20260731173400618	Yes	BUY	102	56¢	$57	0xbf252e…
08-02 10:41:30	will krakens valuation hit high 13b by august 31 20260731173400613	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x892ce5…
08-02 10:37:35	will bytedances valuation hit high 575b by august 31 20260731174241518	No	BUY	372	44¢	$165	0xab0f9c…
08-02 10:31:45	will andurils valuation hit low 92pt5b by august 31 20260730183401560	No	BUY	106	28¢	$30	0xc1e84c…
08-02 10:30:29	anthropic vs openai greater valuation growth august 2026 20260801002110202	OpenAI	BUY	125	28¢	$35	0x9ba1c9…
07-18 14:31:25	will the announcers say tom cruise during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403328	Yes	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x8e3032…
07-18 14:31:10	untitled market 1 20260629172613097	No	SELL	41	98¢	$41	0x8619b7…
07-18 14:31:01	will the announcers say tom cruise during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403328	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x5e9b45…
07-17 21:06:34	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	Yes	BUY	103	34¢	$35	0xb41c6f…
07-17 21:06:19	Will Ariana Grande feature Nicki Minaj on Petal?	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x9b1dfd…
07-13 07:45:25	will krakens valuation hit high 22pt5b by december 31	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x7dc78a…
07-12 17:42:01	will krakens valuation hit high 22pt5b by december 31	No	SELL	30	88¢	$26	0x9f232a…
07-08 12:57:20	will lambdas valuation hit high 8pt25 by july 31 20260629184508151	No	BUY	169	25¢	$42	0xee0cc3…
07-08 12:48:01	will stripes valuation hit high 190 by july 31 20260629184728768	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xe08836…
07-08 12:47:55	will stripes valuation hit high 190 by july 31 20260629184728768	No	BUY	229	59¢	$135	0x487f06…
07-08 10:30:50	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	No	SELL	23	43¢	$10	0xd94965…
07-07 05:10:29	will perplexitys valuation hit high 50b by december 31	No	SELL	125	94¢	$118	0xc8302a…
07-06 23:26:22	will perplexitys valuation hit high 50b by december 31	No	SELL	88	94¢	$82	0x569761…
07-06 17:11:07	will ansem reach 0pt6 before 2027	Yes	BUY	485	58¢	$281	0x267d90…
07-06 11:01:29	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 assists bruno fernandes gte1	Yes	BUY	79	19¢	$15	0xdba4a4…
07-05 21:12:02	will stripes valuation hit high 190 by july 31 20260629184728768	No	BUY	225	59¢	$133	0xb179c0…
07-05 21:08:16	will lambdas valuation hit low 7pt25 by july 31 20260629184508154	No	BUY	205	49¢	$101	0x990286…
07-05 21:07:05	will lambdas valuation hit high 8pt25 by july 31 20260629184508151	No	BUY	228	20¢	$45	0xf2a27f…
07-05 21:05:47	will canvas valuation hit low 40 by july 31 20260629184737587	No	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0xc6aeb2…
07-05 21:03:01	untitled market 1 20260629172613097	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x11e121…
07-05 21:00:44	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	No	BUY	23	52¢	$12	0xc80481…
07-05 21:00:02	will krakens valuation hit high 22pt5b by december 31	No	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0x931e74…
07-05 20:59:28	will perplexitys valuation hit high 50b by december 31	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xea0d38…
07-05 20:58:26	untitled market 1 20260629172240684	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xb26ad3…
07-05 20:56:49	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xbbb7ad…
07-05 20:55:59	will the announcers say ref or referee 10 times during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113085	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x8f4278…
07-02 16:44:37	Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	No	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0x0c673b…
06-07 19:16:55	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0x1fce0b…
06-07 19:11:54	will canvas valuation hit low 40b by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x6f41dd…
06-07 19:08:37	Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	Yes	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xfc43b0…
06-07 19:06:09	Will Ariana Grande feature Nicki Minaj on Petal?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x17ffe8…
06-07 19:05:54	Will Ariana Grande feature Kanye West on Petal?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x29e246…
06-04 12:49:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	15¢	$35	0x5718f8…
06-02 12:38:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	245	100¢	$245	0x175f15…
06-02 12:37:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	151	99¢	$150	0xce847f…
05-26 11:37:23	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xe7d59c…
05-26 11:34:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x2300f4…
05-26 11:06:56	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	120	91¢	$109	0x3c5eca…
05-26 10:53:45	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?	No	BUY	345	89¢	$307	0x6e733e…
05-26 10:38:32	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30?	No	BUY	440	91¢	$400	0x7e0734…
05-26 10:38:18	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x47577b…
05-16 12:03:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	53¢	$55	0x31157c…
05-14 11:21:25	Will "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	Yes	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x277d6f…
05-14 11:19:15	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0ba0fb…
05-14 11:14:23	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x349077…
05-14 11:13:11	Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" this week?	Yes	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x3f459c…
05-14 11:12:06	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xdc8a39…
05-14 11:08:10	Will "Risk It All - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x08be3a…
05-14 11:06:43	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x0d2622…
05-14 10:48:27	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?	No	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0x808585…
05-14 10:46:42	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	172	87¢	$150	0xa43060…
05-14 10:45:16	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	111	17¢	$19	0x4ff15f…
05-14 10:44:50	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x976ba8…
05-14 10:44:05	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 50 and 100 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x37a22c…
05-14 10:43:58	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	91	33¢	$30	0x59036d…
05-14 10:35:27	Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x92d7cc…
05-04 11:10:46	Will Adele be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x784837…
05-04 11:10:30	Will Zendaya wear Loewe at the Met Gala?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x4b14fa…
05-04 11:10:20	Will Zendaya wear Roberto Cavalli at the Met Gala?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x1d57a9…
05-04 10:54:50	Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	32	12¢	$4	0xcac37c…
05-04 10:48:30	Will "Potential - sombr" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xeb4fe7…
05-01 11:44:44	Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	SELL	30	91¢	$27	0xcc30d7…
04-30 19:23:16	Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	Yes	SELL	48	37¢	$18	0x9743e5…
04-30 13:25:30	Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	SELL	73	91¢	$67	0x03b6f6…
04-30 13:25:18	Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0xfd1f4d…
04-30 13:24:20	Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0x8e2930…
04-30 13:23:34	Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0xb14db9…
04-30 13:23:28	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x4b6e95…