Thin-Promise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$27.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$921

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 05-27 08:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

98% 0% $-0

Crypto

1% 100% +$0

Sports

1% 0% $-8

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$27.0K	13,527	13,527	+0	open	—	01-16 05:17
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$89	44	44	+0	No	$-0	04-21 14:42
will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	1	$84	84	0	+84	open	—	02-14 12:48
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$84	42	42	+0	No	$-0	04-18 16:00
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$83	84	0	+84	open	—	01-20 16:21
will ethereum reach 3400 in march 2026	1	$44	45	0	+45	open	—	03-08 01:13
nhl ott nyr 2026 03 23	1	$38	107	0	+107	open	—	03-23 06:43
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	1	$22	22	0	+22	open	—	03-08 09:27
bun lei hof 2026 03 20 lei	1	$22	43	0	+43	open	—	03-19 03:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-22 10:34
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-03 10:45
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	05-06 03:32
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	01-16 05:15
nba hou phx 2026 04 07	1	$8	16	0	+16	open	—	04-07 05:47
Sabres vs. Canadiens	1	$8	17	0	+17	Canadiens	$-8	05-10 07:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-27 08:45
nba por sas 2026 04 08	1	$7	19	0	+19	open	—	04-08 04:33
nba det orl 2026 04 06	1	$7	18	0	+18	open	—	04-06 06:01
nhl wsh tor 2026 04 08	1	$7	16	0	+16	open	—	04-08 06:36
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 rma1	1	$6	17	0	+17	open	—	04-07 07:04
nba atl cle 2026 04 08	1	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	04-08 08:16
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-08 03:52
will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	02-27 16:23
nba min orl 2026 04 08	1	$4	11	0	+11	open	—	04-08 08:52
nhl cal las 2026 04 02	1	$4	11	0	+11	open	—	04-02 10:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-27 08:45:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x072951…
05-22 10:34:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x1619d4…
05-22 07:55:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x84e1b4…
05-10 07:53:07	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Sabres	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x9e541c…
05-06 03:32:20	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xc9ca58…
05-03 10:45:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x608a9e…
04-21 14:42:46	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xd3e6bd…
04-21 13:33:24	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x8b4440…
04-18 16:00:16	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0xbc0a66…
04-18 14:26:00	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xd67efe…
04-08 08:52:29	nba min orl 2026 04 08	Timberwolves	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x84ca6f…
04-08 08:16:09	nba atl cle 2026 04 08	Hawks	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0x2cb034…
04-08 06:36:45	nhl wsh tor 2026 04 08	Maple Leafs	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0x7236f3…
04-08 04:33:15	nba por sas 2026 04 08	Trail Blazers	BUY	19	39¢	$7	0x567433…
04-08 03:52:03	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x42308b…
04-07 07:04:59	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 rma1	Yes	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0xfdc84a…
04-07 05:47:59	nba hou phx 2026 04 07	Rockets	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x06cbb5…
04-06 06:01:59	nba det orl 2026 04 06	Magic	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0x997a97…
04-02 10:12:53	nhl cal las 2026 04 02	Flames	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0x40c42a…
03-23 06:43:53	nhl ott nyr 2026 03 23	Rangers	BUY	107	36¢	$38	0xca73a5…
03-19 03:38:33	bun lei hof 2026 03 20 lei	Yes	BUY	43	51¢	$22	0x84401f…
03-08 09:27:51	will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x8f96aa…
03-08 01:13:45	will ethereum reach 3400 in march 2026	No	BUY	45	99¢	$44	0xe07104…
02-27 16:23:31	will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x102382…
02-14 12:48:29	will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x2a18a2…
01-20 16:21:48	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	BUY	84	99¢	$83	0x050415…
01-16 05:17:20	fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	13,527	100¢	$13,500	0x2075c0…
01-16 05:15:56	fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	13,527	100¢	$13,514	0x514c33…
01-16 05:15:38	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe248a1…
01-07 18:10:27	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x18a627…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9	14	$393.2K	775	05-11 01:37
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	14	$21.1K	391	05-16 11:15
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	13	$82.4K	1,241	05-11 02:26
Drab-Heaven 0xaff3…6ecc	13	$9.67K	95	05-16 23:29
Scary-Edible 0x2005…75ea	12	$577.4K	5,494	05-11 01:37
Frail-Possible 0x204f…5e14	12	$349.1K	1,267	05-11 01:36
Scornful-West 0x6d3c…d294	12	$275.3K	3,100	05-10 22:53
Probable-Farrow 0x6814…a9e7	12	$124.6K	1,848	04-22 01:55