All-Oversight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

59.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$72

Open exposure

$105

1 position

First seen

2026-04-22

last 06-11 03:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

92% 33% $-1

Other

3% — —

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

2% 67% $-7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes		+112	$100	94¢	$105	+$5	06-05 09:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$350	383	0	+383	open	—	05-17 05:24
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	4	$341	392	392	+0	open	—	04-22 10:04
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$215	116	116	+0	open	—	05-27 04:23
will trump say ceasefire this week	2	$210	111	111	+0	open	—	06-04 02:48
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	1	$150	172	0	+172	open	—	05-04 10:46
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$134	53	85	-32	open	—	06-07 12:45
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	1	$125	127	0	+127	open	—	05-31 15:38
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$108	115	0	+115	open	—	06-07 12:46
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	1	$100	271	0	+271	open	—	06-05 09:56
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	1	$100	109	0	+109	open	—	05-27 04:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$100	122	0	+122	open	—	05-01 03:17
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1	$100	108	0	+108	open	—	06-02 02:45
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$100	109	0	+109	open	—	05-23 15:29
will trump say make america great again this week 20260605142537487	1	$100	148	0	+148	open	—	06-09 14:52
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$100	125	0	+125	open	—	05-23 15:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$100	108	0	+108	open	—	05-27 04:24
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	1	$100	115	0	+115	open	—	06-08 03:30
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$100	112	0	+112	open	—	06-05 09:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	1	$100	110	0	+110	open	—	06-01 08:43
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	1	$100	112	0	+112	open	—	06-02 03:41
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	1	$100	110	0	+110	open	—	06-01 08:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	1	$100	105	0	+105	open	—	05-30 05:22
iran closes its airspace by june 8	1	$100	105	0	+105	open	—	06-06 08:29
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	1	$90	100	0	+100	open	—	05-28 03:58
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$80	101	0	+101	open	—	04-23 04:53
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	1	$70	83	0	+83	open	—	05-30 05:23
will trump say six seven during wisconsin events 20260602174202009	1	$70	78	0	+78	open	—	06-04 03:42
Will Trump or Melania say "Darling" at the Military Mothers event?	1	$50	79	0	+79	open	—	05-06 13:52
israel closes its airspace by june 11	1	$50	53	0	+53	open	—	06-11 03:50
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	1	$44	47	0	+47	open	—	06-08 18:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 03:50:22	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x0c45b1…
06-09 14:52:33	will trump say make america great again this week 20260605142537487	No	BUY	148	68¢	$100	0x9f31f8…
06-08 18:11:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	47	95¢	$44	0xb05617…
06-08 03:30:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x884ae1…
06-08 03:19:16	btc updown 5m 1780888500	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x4e680a…
06-07 12:46:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	69	94¢	$65	0x2a626e…
06-07 12:45:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0xfce11f…
06-07 12:45:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	46	94¢	$43	0x01480f…
06-06 08:29:24	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xe2a1f8…
06-05 09:57:18	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x7ccd51…
06-05 09:56:22	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	BUY	271	37¢	$100	0x157d10…
06-04 03:42:28	will trump say six seven during wisconsin events 20260602174202009	No	BUY	78	90¢	$70	0x5e044d…
06-04 03:37:24	btc updown 5m 1780544100	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xa2e15a…
06-04 02:48:49	will trump say ceasefire this week	Yes	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0xc97282…
06-02 09:25:17	Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x845e82…
06-02 03:41:56	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xb05e06…
06-02 02:45:57	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x104e79…
06-01 08:55:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x91824d…
06-01 08:44:36	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x0170a5…
06-01 08:43:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xa0147b…
05-31 15:38:31	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	127	98¢	$125	0xb318d6…
05-30 05:23:07	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	83	84¢	$70	0x43a027…
05-30 05:22:20	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x1ca8d9…
05-28 03:58:53	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xe50ea6…
05-27 04:24:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x7f50f0…
05-27 04:23:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	116	99¢	$115	0x235778…
05-27 04:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xa6bd19…
05-27 04:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x828b59…
05-27 04:06:18	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x79b64c…
05-23 15:29:36	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x7b9eb5…
05-23 15:28:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x3d65af…
05-23 15:24:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xa41158…
05-17 05:24:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	264	95¢	$250	0x5bab90…
05-06 13:55:14	Will Trump or Melania say "Space force" at the Military Mothers event?	No	BUY	37	63¢	$23	0x0c29ba…
05-06 13:53:44	Will Trump or Melania say "Movie Star" at the Military Mothers event?	No	BUY	75	34¢	$25	0xccedd2…
05-06 13:52:06	Will Trump or Melania say "Darling" at the Military Mothers event?	Yes	BUY	79	64¢	$50	0xeea64c…
05-06 13:43:14	Will Trump say "Wall Street" this week?	Yes	BUY	36	78¢	$28	0x12ddd7…
05-06 09:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0xdc2523…
05-06 09:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x8440a9…
05-06 09:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	16	35¢	$6	0x5b940a…
05-06 09:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x5775d0…
05-06 09:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x30a699…
05-06 09:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x5821d6…
05-06 09:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x75d3fe…
05-05 03:00:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x75573c…
05-05 02:54:46	Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	63	63¢	$40	0x3be9df…
05-04 10:46:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	172	87¢	$150	0x4084dd…
05-01 03:17:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0xea72e2…
04-23 04:53:44	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	101	79¢	$80	0x30d9e7…
04-22 10:04:16	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	107	84¢	$90	0x6eefc7…
04-22 04:43:46	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	107	75¢	$80	0xf657de…
04-22 04:41:56	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	286	25¢	$71	0x0e16ff…
04-22 03:07:42	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0xaf5c44…