Nippy-Fiction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

310

lifetime

Volume

$2.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-09 06:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

37% 0% $-3

Other

30% — —

Tech

28% — —

Sports

4% — —

Crypto

1% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes		-25	$-14	40¢	$-10	+$4	06-09 06:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	20	$352	650	466	+184	open	—	04-26 08:15
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	9	$211	185	185	+0	open	—	05-22 22:31
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	13	$149	117	117	+0	open	—	05-22 23:56
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	7	$141	289	99	+190	open	—	05-22 23:41
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	16	$132	160	160	+0	open	—	04-13 04:56
will trump say cheat cheater cheated cheating 10 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	8	$120	235	135	+100	open	—	03-26 01:20
earnings mentions google 2026 02 03 nano banana 1 times	2	$100	120	120	+0	open	—	02-04 22:25
Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?	2	$85	60	60	+0	open	—	04-29 19:16
will spacex have 11 or more launches in february	5	$71	45	45	+0	open	—	02-23 08:38
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$69	80	80	+0	open	—	05-14 14:49
will robinhood say silver during earnings call	5	$68	53	52	+0	open	—	02-10 23:23
will tesla say loyalty during earnings call	3	$67	50	50	+0	open	—	01-28 23:34
nfl ne den 2026 01 25 total 42pt5	4	$65	431	431	+0	open	—	01-25 22:17
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	3	$64	80	80	+0	open	—	04-29 16:53
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	4	$56	45	45	+0	open	—	03-17 03:13
Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?	3	$54	40	40	+0	open	—	04-29 19:55
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	5	$45	62	62	+0	open	—	04-27 15:29
the ring high stakes ryan garcia vs mario barrios	6	$45	138	138	+0	open	—	02-22 05:41
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	29	$40	965	311	+654	open	—	04-23 02:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$35	130	0	+130	open	—	05-13 16:13
will trump say goat or greatest of all time during inter miami events on thursday	2	$29	26	26	+0	open	—	03-05 22:45
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	2	$27	100	100	+0	open	—	04-24 05:28
will spacex starship flight test 12 launch by april 30 133 938	4	$26	400	28	+372	open	—	04-03 23:50
will the 2026 state of the union address be between 90 and 100 minutes long	5	$24	350	0	+350	open	—	02-25 03:41
will trump say transgender this week january 18	2	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	01-13 19:42
will the 2026 state of the union address be between 80 and 90 minutes long	6	$22	770	200	+570	open	—	02-25 03:35
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	2	$21	100	100	+0	open	—	04-13 06:50
will trump say million or billion or trillion 30 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	1	$20	50	0	+50	open	—	03-26 15:54
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	2	$20	24	24	+0	open	—	01-02 09:57
will trump say epic fury during miami address	1	$20	50	0	+50	open	—	03-09 12:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 06:15:07	Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	25	55¢	$14	0x80a8cf…
05-22 23:56:10	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xea1e68…
05-22 23:55:53	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6897ee…
05-22 23:55:16	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xebe271…
05-22 23:52:35	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	SELL	32	99¢	$31	0x422549…
05-22 23:41:09	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	60	1¢	$0	0xf7a814…
05-22 23:41:04	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	60	1¢	$0	0x68626c…
05-22 23:22:08	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xb8fea5…
05-22 23:20:58	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x2daf41…
05-22 22:57:00	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x4ae913…
05-22 22:55:57	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	SELL	22	60¢	$13	0x3f1aad…
05-22 22:49:42	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe0a2a7…
05-22 22:46:24	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb2a303…
05-22 22:41:29	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x2eb8a8…
05-22 22:40:22	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	64	3¢	$2	0xe75d66…
05-22 22:40:06	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xd47473…
05-22 22:40:03	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x938882…
05-22 22:32:23	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xc2eaea…
05-22 22:31:20	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x212382…
05-21 23:48:20	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0x8c78b6…
05-21 23:39:46	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x8d6669…
05-19 09:41:36	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	34	60¢	$20	0x077835…
05-19 08:52:25	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	73	60¢	$44	0x5d2eff…
05-18 23:56:52	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	24	68¢	$16	0x62efdd…
05-15 15:25:09	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x42015b…
05-15 14:16:45	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xad9c17…
05-14 14:49:20	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x6b525e…
05-14 09:25:27	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	35	36¢	$13	0xe37134…
05-14 04:29:56	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	80	16¢	$13	0x4b5143…
05-13 16:13:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x0dfc35…
05-13 05:21:15	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	150	57¢	$85	0xc77f9d…
05-13 02:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x16dc3f…
05-11 20:20:06	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with the 2026 National Football Champions?	No	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0x7b5dbf…
05-10 07:52:32	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	SELL	99	90¢	$89	0x6e13c3…
05-06 17:49:51	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	BUY	29	49¢	$14	0x7200f0…
05-06 17:47:50	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	BUY	70	49¢	$34	0x9f91e8…
05-06 17:24:51	Will Trump or Melania say "Movie Star" at the Military Mothers event?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xf5e4c5…
05-03 23:18:04	Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 10+ times in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xc08dee…
05-03 20:50:24	Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 10+ times in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x496a0b…
05-03 18:41:26	Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 10+ times in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x4a9bc5…
05-02 23:36:26	Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 10+ times in Michigan?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xfd41cb…
04-30 21:14:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x2751d7…
04-29 21:05:40	Will Google say "Cutting-edge" during earnings call?	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x9712b6…
04-29 20:18:08	Will Google say "Cutting-edge" during earnings call?	No	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0xdb8023…
04-29 19:55:10	Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x9b23cf…
04-29 19:16:20	Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xcc418d…
04-29 16:53:52	Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	No	SELL	30	39¢	$12	0x1a0d0e…
04-29 16:52:58	Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	No	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0x49b926…
04-29 07:03:48	Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xa07f67…
04-29 06:27:38	Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	60	41¢	$25	0x9039f9…
04-29 06:23:58	Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x7409db…
04-29 06:22:02	Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	No	BUY	80	40¢	$32	0x4fe186…
04-28 19:52:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x78363e…
04-27 15:29:18	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	27	45¢	$12	0x28d25e…
04-27 15:26:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x8956fd…
04-27 05:54:18	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0x308bfd…
04-27 01:15:14	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x5c42c2…
04-26 23:41:26	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x870082…
04-26 08:15:06	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x26736b…
04-24 05:28:08	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x4591a1…
04-23 02:29:54	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	160	1¢	$2	0xb0fc4a…
04-19 17:58:32	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x6149a3…
04-15 15:22:12	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	137	71¢	$97	0x810426…
04-15 15:20:32	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xe4f632…
04-15 15:20:22	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xfd3127…
04-15 07:36:12	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	87¢	$26	0x41fbf8…
04-15 07:16:12	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0xfc241c…
04-15 06:45:44	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	79¢	$24	0x8e4333…
04-14 22:31:00	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	76	75¢	$57	0x3d5ed7…
04-14 18:20:08	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xfef1a8…
04-14 18:14:08	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x22086a…
04-14 18:12:44	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x69dfb0…
04-14 18:06:48	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x6d6cc8…
04-14 18:06:34	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x996d75…
04-14 18:05:48	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x6caa4e…
04-14 18:05:44	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	280	0¢	$1	0x798909…
04-14 02:30:29	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x1fed0e…
04-14 01:56:27	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$1	0x60ae42…
04-13 15:42:53	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x94fc6b…
04-13 06:50:55	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xe62344…
04-13 06:50:35	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	16	12¢	$2	0xfeaa92…
04-13 06:45:47	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$3	0x190db4…
04-13 06:34:19	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	35	9¢	$3	0x99bb42…
04-13 06:17:55	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x1f8734…
04-13 06:05:39	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	80	0¢	$0	0x785a2f…
04-13 06:02:31	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xa4bccb…
04-13 06:01:45	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x2e9a05…
04-13 06:01:43	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x4922e0…
04-13 06:01:27	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0x548fa6…
04-13 06:01:27	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0x4fed51…
04-13 06:01:27	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	91	0¢	$0	0x4fe967…
04-13 06:01:17	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xf21ecf…
04-13 06:01:17	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe7f646…
04-13 06:01:17	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	68	0¢	$0	0xab675e…
04-13 05:57:07	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	57	1¢	$1	0x06ad99…
04-13 05:56:31	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xde7915…
04-13 05:55:29	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x3fd67d…
04-13 05:48:27	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0xfb29f6…
04-13 05:41:57	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	70	4¢	$3	0xb930d8…
04-13 04:58:59	Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	77	12¢	$9	0xe984ca…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	54	$156.2K	12,246	04-30 04:37
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	54	$51.3K	4,313	03-28 21:09
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	54	$34.0K	3,506	06-09 10:01
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	47	$5.13K	1,357	05-14 09:04
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	46	$7.89M	12,154	06-01 03:20
Entire-Hood 0xb40e…7cc9	45	$88.0K	3,714	05-23 16:44
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	39	$20.7K	246	05-30 20:33
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	38	$218.1K	4,183	06-01 00:34