Nippy-Fiction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$211

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.7%

Resolved

197

Trades

746

lifetime

Volume

$7.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-14 18:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 93 days

Categories

Politics

46% 28% -$565

Tech

26% 64% +$289

Other

24% 25% +$473

Crypto

3% 29% -$33

Sports

1% 40% +$46

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump say israel during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556636	8	$622	330	330	+0	No	+$34	07-28 20:43
will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	5	$531	300	300	+0	Yes	+$63	07-24 22:58
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	21	$530	650	650	+0	Yes	+$288	05-05 10:27
Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	3	$329	225	225	+0	open	—	10-05 16:10
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	2	$305	297	297	+0	Yes	+$282	07-03 00:28
Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?	5	$224	859	147	+712	No	-$120	08-05 00:44
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	9	$211	185	185	+0	Yes	+$26	05-22 22:31
will trump say communist or communism during tele rallies 20260729141144279	2	$205	236	0	+236	Yes	-$205	07-29 22:54
will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	12	$164	1,300	150	+1,150	Yes	+$2	07-24 16:58
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	2	$163	120	120	+0	No	+$74	05-19 23:08
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	10	$156	269	0	+269	No	-$156	10-21 11:36
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	13	$149	117	117	+0	Yes	+$48	05-22 23:56
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	11	$146	300	563	-263	No	-$17	06-10 00:29
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	7	$141	289	99	+190	Yes	+$38	05-22 23:41
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	16	$132	160	160	+0	No	+$56	04-13 04:56
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	5	$122	240	240	+0	Yes	+$61	07-29 23:14
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	3	$121	108	108	+0	No	+$69	07-06 05:10
will trump say cheat cheater cheated cheating 10 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	8	$120	235	135	+100	Yes	+$20	03-26 01:20
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	2	$120	70	70	+0	Yes	+$19	09-28 13:20
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	7	$103	300	0	+300	No	-$103	06-21 21:45
earnings mentions google 2026 02 03 nano banana 1 times	2	$100	120	120	+0	Yes	+$42	02-04 22:25
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	3	$96	270	0	+270	No	-$96	06-21 21:35
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	2	$90	82	82	+0	open	—	07-29 23:15
Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?	2	$85	60	60	+0	Yes	+$35	04-29 19:16
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?	6	$77	117	117	+0	Yes	+$51	06-12 17:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$76	130	64	+66	No	+$6	05-23 21:35
will spacex have 11 or more launches in february	5	$71	45	45	+0	Yes	+$16	02-23 08:38
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$69	80	80	+0	Yes	+$44	05-14 14:49
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?	3	$69	150	150	+0	No	-$37	08-05 02:58
will robinhood say silver during earnings call	5	$68	53	52	+0	No	+$36	02-10 23:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 18:45:34	Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?	No	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0xdaec98…
11-14 18:09:28	Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?	No	SELL	13	43¢	$5	0xa0d718…
11-14 15:41:05	Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?	No	SELL	13	43¢	$5	0xcc12d6…
11-13 22:34:12	Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xcb208b…
10-21 11:36:39	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0x522461…
10-21 11:36:05	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x96e91b…
10-21 11:35:18	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xfa8629…
10-21 11:35:18	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xf9419d…
10-21 11:35:18	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xae21b3…
10-21 11:35:18	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x1352e2…
10-21 11:35:18	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x11a6f0…
10-21 08:02:50	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x127223…
10-20 05:18:30	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	43	59¢	$25	0xbc920b…
10-19 08:38:23	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	126	58¢	$73	0x4c2c67…
10-16 23:49:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	136	23¢	$31	0x42bf69…
10-16 23:35:20	Will Sergio Sullca Condori win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xf8f5b6…
10-16 18:29:19	Will Trump say "University" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	17	67¢	$11	0xb7331a…
10-16 01:38:54	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x4a5f71…
10-16 01:38:40	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x8a7542…
10-16 01:34:21	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0xc785fc…
10-14 01:24:14	will trump say oil during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xb16e8b…
10-14 00:50:33	will trump say oil during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	No	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x62f6e4…
10-13 21:16:48	will trump say oil during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	No	BUY	31	30¢	$9	0x7b36b7…
10-10 18:54:52	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x036ed5…
10-10 17:41:55	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x92f624…
10-10 17:41:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0xba9386…
10-10 17:41:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xb1126e…
10-10 17:41:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x6cd67e…
10-10 17:41:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x5089fa…
10-10 16:06:28	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x3137c7…
10-10 09:29:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xf44732…
10-10 09:29:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x9b221a…
10-10 09:29:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x61d95c…
10-10 05:45:34	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x74986f…
10-10 00:41:56	Will Sergio Sullca Condori win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xf5f106…
10-05 22:54:29	Will Sergio Sullca Condori win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6421dd…
10-05 22:54:29	Will Sergio Sullca Condori win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x347082…
10-05 22:54:25	Will Sergio Sullca Condori win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x52c586…
10-05 16:10:53	Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	225	99¢	$223	0xd82c78…
10-05 02:08:07	Will Sergio Sullca Condori win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xdcc5fe…
10-05 02:08:07	Will Sergio Sullca Condori win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x19797e…
10-05 02:08:02	Will Sergio Sullca Condori win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0x149507…
10-02 21:23:09	Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	55	45¢	$25	0xf97464…
09-29 05:12:56	Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	170	48¢	$82	0x0b21b3…
09-28 13:20:15	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	Yes	SELL	70	99¢	$70	0xf8b134…
09-28 11:43:51	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	Yes	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0xecf0ab…
08-09 08:44:16	lol ig1 lng 2026 08 09	LNG Esports	SELL	120	1¢	$1	0xe723e2…
08-09 08:42:43	lol ig1 lng 2026 08 09	LNG Esports	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe1442b…
08-09 08:42:34	lol ig1 lng 2026 08 09	LNG Esports	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd38c0e…
08-09 08:42:31	lol ig1 lng 2026 08 09	LNG Esports	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xab1542…
08-09 08:42:24	lol ig1 lng 2026 08 09	LNG Esports	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xca8527…
08-05 06:14:50	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	157	1¢	$2	0xe3c505…
08-05 05:59:57	Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x03a514…
08-05 03:02:27	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?	Yes	SELL	107	4¢	$4	0x772b27…
08-05 02:58:15	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x61d678…
08-05 02:56:08	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$5	0x758eed…
08-05 02:54:08	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?	Yes	SELL	51	4¢	$2	0xdc6321…
08-05 01:46:03	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xf063b2…
08-05 01:39:53	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?	Yes	BUY	150	35¢	$53	0xef4b7b…
08-05 01:01:08	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xca84be…
08-05 01:01:06	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?	Yes	BUY	35	5¢	$2	0x18d83c…
08-05 00:49:33	Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	96	1¢	$1	0x82e27c…
08-05 00:45:24	Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 12–16%?	Yes	BUY	206	0¢	$1	0x583305…
08-05 00:44:45	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	44	36¢	$16	0x8b4813…
08-05 00:43:57	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	23	27¢	$6	0x3e590a…
08-05 00:43:39	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	40	37¢	$15	0xcd4411…
08-05 00:42:12	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0x0aabf4…
08-05 00:32:27	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?	Yes	BUY	102	2¢	$2	0x32b9c9…
08-05 00:32:06	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x99c704…
08-05 00:32:05	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd774a5…
08-05 00:32:05	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x235cac…
08-05 00:32:03	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x7b5d77…
08-05 00:29:11	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb0d459…
08-05 00:29:11	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x8926bd…
08-05 00:28:50	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xd274ed…
08-04 23:35:53	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x40d771…
08-04 23:35:26	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x8d9a78…
08-04 23:02:30	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0x6f3f4c…
08-04 23:02:18	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xf0e888…
08-04 23:01:06	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xff63a5…
08-04 23:00:23	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xcb1004…
08-04 22:59:45	Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x2ce02c…
08-04 22:40:30	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	SELL	18	47¢	$8	0x30c66a…
08-04 20:39:20	Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 12–16%?	Yes	BUY	277	0¢	$1	0x29b977…
08-04 19:37:11	will spacex say fuel 3 times during earnings call 20260730164309234	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x63c2f5…
08-04 04:14:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0xa01cad…
08-03 07:43:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	35	44¢	$15	0x5a9945…
08-03 07:24:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xa6c3ca…
08-03 07:21:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xd38250…
08-03 07:21:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xa17dae…
08-03 06:57:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 06:45 UTC	Down	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xf8de8f…
08-02 19:41:33	Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0x9db136…
08-02 19:23:54	Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xb066b7…
08-02 06:57:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x6390a8…
08-02 06:57:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0x167aa9…
08-02 05:42:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x85f8b7…
08-02 05:42:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	97	1¢	$1	0x326b85…
08-02 04:34:36	Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xc807c6…
08-01 17:54:06	Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xe315de…
08-01 16:44:53	Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x618014…