Flippant-Millet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$757

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.9%

Resolved

Trades

247

lifetime

Volume

$15.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 09-01 10:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 76% -$720

Other

40% 50% -$37

Tech

5% 67% +$0

Politics

2% 60% +$0

Sports

1% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will saudi aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	4	$2.1K	1,049	1,049	+0	No	-$1	02-19 01:47
ethereum above 1600 on february 19	2	$1.2K	610	610	+0	Yes	+$0	02-19 13:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 02:00 UTC	6	$942	1,321	706	+614	Down	+$58	02-19 02:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 13:15 UTC	41	$610	1,742	0	+1,742	Down	-$610	02-19 13:17
bitcoin above 60k on february 18	1	$548	549	0	+549	Yes	+$1	02-18 02:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 02:00 UTC	1	$547	548	0	+548	Up	+$1	02-18 02:13
ethereum above 1700 on february 16	1	$498	499	0	+499	Yes	+$0	02-16 08:17
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 01:45 UTC	12	$498	548	0	+548	Down	+$49	02-18 01:56
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	4	$493	261	261	+0	Yes	+$0	01-13 00:59
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	3	$374	250	125	+125	Yes	+$0	03-29 01:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 01:45 UTC	2	$249	270	260	+11	Down	+$0	04-17 01:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	2	$248	124	124	+0	No	+$0	04-17 01:46
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$248	125	125	+0	No	$0	04-10 00:58
bitcoin above 94k on january 29	2	$248	125	125	+0	No	+$0	01-29 01:21
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$248	126	126	+0	Yes	$0	04-11 00:47
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 11 2026 26c	2	$248	124	124	+0	No	+$0	04-11 02:16
will crude oil cl hit low 40 by end of march 777 183 974 725 949 716 258 533 859 313 659 847	2	$248	124	124	+0	No	$0	03-23 01:30
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 320 339	2	$248	124	124	+0	No	+$0	03-23 01:48
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$247	124	124	+0	No	+$0	01-11 01:51
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$246	146	146	+0	No	-$1	01-16 21:03
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 01:30 UTC	1	$125	241	0	+241	Down	-$125	02-01 01:31
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$125	125	0	+125	Yes	+$0	01-31 01:55
bitcoin above 74k on march 26	1	$124	125	0	+125	No	+$0	03-26 08:55
bitcoin above 90k on january 30	1	$124	125	0	+125	No	+$0	01-30 01:33
bitcoin above 66k on march 25	1	$124	124	0	+124	Yes	+$0	03-25 08:14
highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 14c	1	$124	124	0	+124	No	+$0	03-25 01:10
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 180 199	1	$124	124	0	+124	No	+$0	04-09 02:31
highest temperature in shanghai on march 24 2026 12c	1	$124	124	0	+124	No	+$0	03-24 00:34
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	1	$124	124	0	+124	No	+$0	04-02 01:47
bitcoin above 82k on january 28	1	$124	124	0	+124	Yes	+$0	01-28 01:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-01 10:45:00	Over $6M committed to the Linera public sale?	Yes	BUY	16	85¢	$13	0x966046…
09-01 09:22:09	Over $6M committed to the Linera public sale?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x67af04…
09-01 09:16:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 1?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x179588…
09-01 09:16:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 1?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x254c19…
08-31 11:06:33	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x9aa02d…
08-26 00:40:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x080731…
08-22 10:48:39	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 22	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$30	0x9bab30…
08-22 09:10:54	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xdcd35f…
08-20 00:51:10	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0ea0fe…
08-19 02:22:00	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xca8d1c…
08-19 02:21:40	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x6a9665…
08-15 02:35:34	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xea2cb2…
08-14 08:41:30	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x5fb5f5…
08-13 05:15:58	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	SELL	31	100¢	$30	0x9ca216…
08-12 00:21:27	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	31	99¢	$30	0x20899c…
08-11 20:13:31	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xd68271…
08-11 04:39:22	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x4dce4d…
08-11 04:38:00	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xd6c071…
08-07 04:49:21	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x652e2c…
08-07 04:48:45	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x050b1d…
08-02 02:41:14	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x17ef15…
08-02 02:38:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 02:35 UTC	Down	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x14da11…
08-02 02:37:32	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xfd2045…
07-29 01:18:11	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xbf43e8…
07-29 01:16:24	Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x3af555…
07-27 00:25:03	Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf3af46…
07-27 00:23:55	Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x4e61b5…
07-26 00:55:00	Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xe9c935…
07-26 00:54:16	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 25, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x180bac…
07-24 01:42:04	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 25, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x26baed…
07-24 01:41:43	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x952cb3…
07-22 02:44:42	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 22, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x62266c…
07-22 02:44:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x0a6e10…
07-22 02:44:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xc9f0c0…
07-21 01:17:00	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x494dc3…
07-21 00:38:19	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x06c79a…
07-20 03:32:21	will bitcoin dip to 37pt5k in july 2026 944	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xc3e3db…
07-18 00:53:57	will bitcoin dip to 37pt5k in july 2026 944	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x69b9df…
07-18 00:53:25	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x2f54b0…
07-14 08:55:29	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb7809e…
07-14 08:26:29	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$7	0x8810b0…
07-14 07:38:46	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0x249b2b…
07-14 00:54:11	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb495b6…
07-14 00:53:49	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x3969b2…
07-14 00:53:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 13?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xf4dbfa…
07-13 04:36:02	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xf777bb…
07-13 01:59:49	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc08a74…
07-13 00:35:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 13?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa16bc9…
07-13 00:34:25	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7562ae…
07-13 00:33:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x102dfe…
07-13 00:33:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6b1180…
07-12 04:18:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 12?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x4aeb51…
07-12 01:15:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 12?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x65cbc5…
07-11 01:48:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on July 11?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x57351a…
07-11 01:47:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 11?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xa523fc…
07-11 01:29:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 11?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0x4c2161…
07-11 01:26:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 11?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x1b7b3b…
07-11 01:25:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 11?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x9e50d1…
07-11 01:24:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0x04cfe9…
07-04 00:55:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0xfa0a30…
07-03 15:20:11	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x959c3e…
07-02 00:23:10	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x3d42c8…
06-25 01:09:55	Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x4421d0…
06-24 20:52:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x00236f…
06-24 00:38:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x9e5146…
06-23 02:12:23	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x5d0ffa…
06-21 00:32:26	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x6da5a3…
06-20 04:58:29	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	30	96¢	$28	0xdfdf07…
06-20 01:05:26	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	30	96¢	$28	0xaa5959…
06-20 01:04:22	Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0xce7057…
06-19 01:28:59	Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0x43e847…
06-14 05:34:22	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0xe6e61e…
06-14 04:54:06	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0x72fbc1…
06-13 16:45:36	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x843aef…
06-13 16:00:22	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xcc394f…
06-13 15:36:36	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4e5ef3…
06-13 14:38:22	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2519fc…
06-13 00:30:49	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0x37f575…
06-12 20:50:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$28	0x5f5113…
06-12 03:03:22	will wti crude oil wti hit high 200 in june	No	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0x874115…
06-12 03:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x61f786…
06-11 00:26:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11?	No	BUY	28	87¢	$25	0x129943…
06-10 00:56:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?	No	BUY	16	76¢	$12	0x18de16…
06-09 23:00:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x6dbfe1…
06-08 02:26:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x04325f…
06-08 02:25:25	Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xc59ec5…
06-05 00:40:30	Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5277db…
06-04 07:17:46	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	No	SELL	13	98¢	$12	0xbb4ff8…
06-04 00:34:34	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	No	BUY	13	98¢	$12	0xd62d3b…
06-03 20:51:31	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	SELL	13	97¢	$12	0x02c92c…
06-02 00:38:35	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$12	0xfb7261…
06-01 21:14:37	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$12	0x518e4d…
06-01 00:36:07	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$12	0xe28304…
06-01 00:35:11	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x0b74ca…
06-01 00:34:48	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x7a53a6…
05-28 02:56:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc8eb60…
05-28 02:56:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x628a8d…
05-28 02:56:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xdba0d8…
05-27 04:39:59	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x1e2528…
05-27 00:31:36	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x49f566…