Dismal-Appetizer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

66.8%

Resolved

Trades

460

lifetime

Volume

$22.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

$79

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 18:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

53% 67% $-3

Crypto

19% 100% +$6

Politics

16% 100% +$6

Tech

8% — —

Sports

4% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+58	$40	68¢	$40	$-0	06-08 18:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+53	$40	73¢	$39	$-1	06-08 18:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed cutpausepause in the next three decisions decjanmar	4	$451	254	254	+0	open	—	02-12 19:50
another critical cloudflare incident by january 31	4	$401	204	204	+0	open	—	01-31 09:13
will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	2	$392	221	221	+0	open	—	02-26 19:00
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$383	198	198	+0	open	—	02-26 13:47
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	2	$379	200	200	+0	open	—	02-11 18:51
will bitcoin reach 106k january 12 18	2	$374	187	187	+0	open	—	01-17 21:58
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	4	$356	205	205	+0	open	—	04-14 20:12
will the next dutch government be vvd cda d66	4	$332	171	171	+0	open	—	02-04 22:01
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	2	$323	165	165	+0	open	—	01-18 12:12
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$304	152	152	-0	open	—	01-15 18:04
will wuthering heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend	6	$277	140	140	+0	open	—	02-13 17:19
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$270	138	138	+0	open	—	02-25 16:44
will israel strike lebanon on february 23 2026	2	$258	146	146	+0	open	—	02-24 05:49
will bridgerton season 4 be the top us netflix show this week 951	2	$254	130	130	+0	open	—	03-02 20:02
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$239	130	130	+0	open	—	01-29 18:18
will the united states win the second most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	4	$239	194	194	+0	open	—	02-18 16:21
aapl close above 275 on february 27 2026	3	$224	140	140	+0	open	—	02-26 20:59
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$210	115	115	+0	open	—	02-14 13:16
meta close above 650 on march 3 2026	2	$209	109	109	+0	open	—	03-03 21:08
will apple be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	2	$206	114	114	+0	open	—	01-28 18:31
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026 452	2	$205	107	107	+0	open	—	02-12 19:50
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$203	106	106	+0	open	—	02-18 12:31
nvda close above 190 on february 26 2026	2	$203	104	104	+0	open	—	02-26 20:59
will people we meet on vacation be the 2 global netflix movie this week january 20 2026	2	$202	102	102	+0	open	—	01-20 20:31
another us strike on venezuela by january 10	2	$202	103	103	+0	open	—	01-10 13:01
ethereum above 2600 on february 1	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	02-01 18:40
will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	01-16 17:45
will the price of bitcoin be less than 82000 on january 15	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	01-14 18:55
bitcoin above 84k on january 12	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	01-11 16:22
solana above 90 on january 15	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	01-14 18:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 18:14:37	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	SELL	31	50¢	$16	0x5d1777…
06-08 18:11:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	69¢	$40	0xe05875…
06-08 18:09:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0x4be787…
06-06 06:46:01	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	101	91¢	$92	0x2f9fc1…
06-05 21:46:03	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	31	76¢	$24	0x478002…
06-05 15:39:39	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?	No	SELL	70	63¢	$44	0x1dba7a…
06-04 18:07:54	bitcoin above 60k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x6bb1a1…
06-04 18:06:55	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	101	90¢	$91	0x8f71dc…
05-31 16:48:35	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?	No	BUY	70	86¢	$60	0x267b0e…
05-29 18:47:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	68	80¢	$55	0xda9f32…
05-28 14:36:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	30	67¢	$20	0xaed107…
05-27 16:01:30	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0x66fac0…
05-23 10:07:30	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	32	74¢	$24	0x80114a…
05-21 18:38:37	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	40	71¢	$29	0xf7b7d4…
05-19 20:27:00	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	97	91¢	$88	0xcd6d28…
05-19 15:33:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	68	88¢	$60	0xa2555e…
05-19 15:32:02	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0xff5f0c…
05-12 16:11:42	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x219568…
05-11 19:49:07	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	34	85¢	$29	0x298adb…
05-11 19:20:27	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x35a703…
05-11 19:18:33	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	16	85¢	$14	0x010293…
05-11 18:41:47	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xa4f55b…
05-10 13:52:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x6be32b…
05-06 16:13:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x0faf69…
05-06 16:09:08	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x863ae0…
05-06 16:02:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0x43bd7a…
05-06 14:16:24	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on May 6?	Yes	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0x665f6b…
05-05 18:07:28	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0x2b2470…
05-05 18:05:44	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	13	65¢	$8	0xf81b8f…
05-05 18:03:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	55	85¢	$47	0x4bc522…
05-03 16:43:42	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	32	73¢	$23	0x9330ac…
04-27 13:50:14	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0xf8668c…
04-23 19:38:22	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	35	79¢	$28	0x9ce578…
04-22 20:16:16	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x4f4112…
04-22 20:16:10	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0xa87b52…
04-22 20:16:10	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x4edb41…
04-22 18:25:56	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 bar	Yes	BUY	46	78¢	$36	0xcf8859…
04-22 16:13:44	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x4d16f8…
04-20 20:55:20	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	35	73¢	$26	0xc265ea…
04-20 20:53:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	52	85¢	$44	0xba8427…
04-20 20:20:30	msft close above 420 on april 20 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc7d4aa…
04-20 20:20:18	googl close above 340 on april 20 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xa921f7…
04-20 17:38:54	msft close above 420 on april 20 2026	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xb0dc8d…
04-20 17:38:52	msft close above 420 on april 20 2026	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x1987ca…
04-20 17:37:00	googl close above 340 on april 20 2026	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0x2f1210…
04-20 17:36:28	googl close above 340 on april 20 2026	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x686d4d…
04-19 19:22:20	es2 alb gra 2026 04 19 alb	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xc11a90…
04-19 17:45:26	es2 alb gra 2026 04 19 alb	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xb4dfed…
04-15 16:29:42	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 bay1	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xeb6984…
04-15 16:29:06	ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x6b82af…
04-14 20:12:08	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	80	98¢	$79	0xf4960b…
04-13 19:51:57	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x990c67…
04-12 18:24:05	bitcoin above 72k on april 12	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x9f393e…
04-12 10:08:31	bitcoin above 72k on april 12	No	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0x75df8b…
04-12 09:47:27	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	39	45¢	$17	0x71005a…
04-12 09:47:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0x29e30e…
04-12 09:43:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	61	45¢	$27	0x6f0f7f…
04-11 17:48:31	lal bar esp 2026 04 11 bar	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xaf9284…
04-11 16:27:17	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	80	89¢	$71	0x4964d5…
04-11 16:23:51	lal bar esp 2026 04 11 bar	Yes	BUY	18	76¢	$14	0xe5533e…
04-09 19:34:51	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	45	81¢	$37	0xcd34b2…
04-08 22:32:47	gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	No	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0xf4bf7b…
04-08 16:17:17	xauusd up or down on april 8 2026	Up	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xb5d04e…
04-08 16:15:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	SELL	4	83¢	$4	0x80be5d…
04-07 12:29:11	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 spo1	Yes	BUY	16	22¢	$3	0xeb4a98…
04-06 19:39:29	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	24	90¢	$21	0xce86c9…
04-06 19:34:11	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x5b2150…
04-06 16:51:17	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 7	Yes	SELL	18	90¢	$16	0xf623f1…
04-05 13:41:35	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 7	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xad70e2…
04-05 11:58:03	gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x264e6b…
04-05 11:57:23	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 7	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x0fa282…
04-05 11:57:19	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 7	Yes	BUY	11	78¢	$9	0x6ca246…
04-03 21:53:37	fl1 psg tou 2026 04 03 psg	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xafd778…
04-03 13:16:23	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	34	80¢	$27	0xfc2454…
04-03 10:25:59	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0x9e298f…
04-03 00:55:21	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x7409eb…
04-03 00:16:21	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xef2e66…
04-02 15:51:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x0877e5…
03-31 19:43:27	meta above 560 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xb205e0…
03-31 10:32:29	spx opens up or down on march 31 2026	Up	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0xd88b0e…
03-31 09:06:31	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0xc3f118…
03-31 09:02:17	spx opens up or down on march 31 2026	Up	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x85870b…
03-31 08:52:05	bun fre bay 2026 04 04 bay	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x23955d…
03-31 08:51:51	fl1 psg tou 2026 04 03 psg	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xa6767a…
03-30 23:51:05	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	125	85¢	$106	0x44fa25…
03-30 21:21:37	fif ger gha 2026 03 30 ger	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x69dff1…
03-30 16:58:57	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x9ec39b…
03-30 16:42:27	iran leadership change by march 31	No	SELL	104	99¢	$103	0xa08150…
03-30 12:29:50	fif ger gha 2026 03 30 ger	Yes	BUY	11	85¢	$10	0x556475…
03-30 12:28:40	another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x21be24…
03-30 11:32:34	another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 2026	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x41f31d…
03-29 19:08:56	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0xb6d8b4…
03-29 19:08:06	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	SELL	60	20¢	$12	0xcd527b…
03-29 11:53:48	fif egy esp 2026 03 30 esp	Yes	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x31e17e…
03-27 19:23:33	fif esp ser 2026 03 27 esp	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$6	0x41cbde…
03-27 15:59:39	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	BUY	60	41¢	$25	0x683c74…
03-25 18:12:37	highest temperature in seoul on march 26 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xa52b89…
03-25 18:04:33	highest temperature in seoul on march 26 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0xb67d0d…
03-25 18:04:33	highest temperature in seoul on march 26 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0x3cc79d…
03-25 18:04:31	highest temperature in seoul on march 26 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0x48ba18…