Cylindrical-Jungle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$634

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

84.2%

Resolved

272

Trades

1,779

lifetime

Volume

$208.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$117

Open exposure

$56

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-29 01:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 105 days

Categories

Other

90% 74% +$3,573

Politics

10% 41% -$2,601

Sports

0% 43% -$339

Tech

0% 100% +$4

Crypto

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes		+399	$60	14¢	$56	-$4	10-28 17:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	99	$13.6K	77,551	79,764	-2,212	No	+$2,004	02-13 13:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	8	$11.1K	5,700	5,690	+10	Yes	+$254	04-12 22:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	10	$10.9K	7,107	4,350	+2,758	Yes	+$162	04-14 13:45
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	34	$9.8K	5,057	5,057	+0	No	+$221	03-30 20:46
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	23	$8.3K	5,494	4,642	+852	Yes	+$701	04-21 13:47
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	8	$7.7K	3,958	3,958	+0	No	+$91	03-21 15:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	49	$6.4K	13,600	10,800	+2,800	Yes	+$236	10-28 15:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April?	12	$6.0K	5,600	500	+5,100	Yes	+$66	04-07 22:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?	4	$5.8K	5,239	679	+4,560	Yes	+$76	03-31 15:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	8	$5.6K	5,414	300	+5,114	Yes	+$122	04-02 12:18
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	10	$5.4K	2,848	2,838	+10	Yes	+$168	03-17 11:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	155	$5.2K	29,008	29,007	+0	Yes	+$47	03-25 03:58
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	52	$4.8K	3,380	3,221	+159	No	-$191	04-11 03:55
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by march 13 323 755 644	3	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$16	03-13 18:25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	14	$3.9K	3,205	2,205	+1,000	No	-$1,156	04-27 14:49
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	3	$3.7K	1,841	1,841	+0	Yes	+$3	01-30 12:13
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	24	$3.4K	2,023	2,123	-100	Yes	+$47	02-06 15:53
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	12	$3.3K	2,645	2,645	+0	No	+$649	04-08 17:52
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	56	$2.6K	2,608	2,058	+550	No	+$676	10-26 10:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	18	$2.5K	1,900	1,098	+802	Yes	+$97	04-14 23:35
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	8	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	10-26 17:18
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 7?	21	$2.2K	1,160	1,160	+0	Yes	+$54	10-07 22:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	12	$2.1K	1,303	1,000	+303	Yes	+$51	03-31 18:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	11	$2.0K	2,000	1,500	+500	No	-$711	04-27 14:49
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	9	$1.9K	1,137	1,137	+0	No change	+$119	10-21 14:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	13	$1.7K	6,400	4,000	+2,400	No	-$8	10-26 18:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	6	$1.7K	1,005	1,005	+0	Yes	+$35	10-16 16:40
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	31	$1.6K	2,602	2,602	+0	No	-$861	05-29 20:50
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	6	$1.6K	1,160	497	+663	open	—	10-25 18:32
will wti dip to 80 in august 2026	3	$1.6K	1,350	338	+1,012	Yes	+$134	08-02 22:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 01:10:38	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	275	0¢	$0	0x973848…
10-28 21:39:52	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	74¢	$13	0x184281…
10-28 21:22:55	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0xce9d35…
10-28 21:19:52	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$0	0x892033…
10-28 20:44:31	Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x2d929e…
10-28 20:41:59	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x1e98e3…
10-28 20:41:56	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x22623b…
10-28 20:30:43	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,708	0¢	$2	0xfde4d9…
10-28 20:30:01	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	600	100¢	$599	0x65ac9b…
10-28 20:06:52	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xa3c1ff…
10-28 20:06:52	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x5d1581…
10-28 20:06:50	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	99	99¢	$99	0x5ce26b…
10-28 20:05:50	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0xf24080…
10-28 20:02:07	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 28?	No	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0xfe2fad…
10-28 20:01:58	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 28?	No	BUY	174	50¢	$87	0xa1f449…
10-28 19:52:38	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xa9fdd2…
10-28 19:14:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% in October?	Yes	SELL	169	5¢	$9	0x5e8d61…
10-28 19:05:23	Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x52e514…
10-28 19:04:58	Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x51a20d…
10-28 18:49:49	Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0xa98d73…
10-28 18:49:47	Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	16	54¢	$9	0xf271f9…
10-28 18:49:47	Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xe76914…
10-28 18:49:47	Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xb2be6a…
10-28 18:49:47	Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	21	60¢	$13	0x7dcf70…
10-28 18:30:59	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	335	100¢	$335	0x653b33…
10-28 18:30:10	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	335	99¢	$331	0xeba63f…
10-28 17:17:34	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	199	15¢	$30	0x8e7d44…
10-28 17:15:58	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x689c1f…
10-28 17:15:47	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xf061a2…
10-28 16:27:32	Rahul Gandhi arrested by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xfa81b9…
10-28 16:01:11	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0xd4735c…
10-28 15:49:38	Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0xd6018d…
10-28 15:38:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0x153a14…
10-28 15:35:35	Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0x59293a…
10-28 13:54:49	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	80	43¢	$34	0x0d4005…
10-28 13:53:13	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	88	43¢	$38	0x7027e1…
10-28 12:51:20	Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xb52014…
10-27 18:33:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	94¢	$374	0x53ee7f…
10-27 16:13:30	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x6b5391…
10-27 14:29:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 27?	No	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0xe8818b…
10-27 12:27:47	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 27?	No	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0x478432…
10-27 12:11:17	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	No	SELL	94	80¢	$75	0x043966…
10-27 10:39:06	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 27?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xe9906d…
10-27 09:30:02	India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India	New Zealand	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xeef6c3…
10-27 08:08:15	India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India	New Zealand	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x76edf6…
10-26 18:44:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	7¢	$84	0xabc726…
10-26 17:47:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,111	92¢	$1,023	0xaa3926…
10-26 17:36:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	89	92¢	$81	0x9fa0c6…
10-26 17:18:56	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	1,123	99¢	$1,114	0x6427d8…
10-26 13:50:06	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x536a80…
10-26 13:47:02	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0ac350…
10-26 13:37:02	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x97b3a5…
10-26 13:05:57	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x66456e…
10-26 13:05:02	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x663be6…
10-26 13:04:54	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	400	99¢	$396	0x814840…
10-26 13:04:48	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x381293…
10-26 11:31:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	23	85¢	$19	0x3032c0…
10-26 10:54:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	77	85¢	$66	0xff022c…
10-26 10:29:32	Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xe9c40d…
10-26 10:02:45	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	37	15¢	$6	0xe8972c…
10-26 10:02:45	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	163	15¢	$25	0x98dddd…
10-25 18:33:39	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x563d9f…
10-25 18:32:03	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	397	100¢	$395	0x16beaa…
10-25 18:29:53	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	SELL	60	7¢	$4	0x9c6396…
10-25 18:29:12	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0x5f7d60…
10-25 15:22:14	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2ddced…
10-25 15:20:48	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xab1c17…
10-25 12:15:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	5¢	$100	0xf46eb8…
10-24 10:46:53	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x359df6…
10-23 20:55:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0xdec23b…
10-23 19:48:45	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	360	100¢	$359	0x62407e…
10-23 19:32:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$195	0xbc1dff…
10-23 19:31:59	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x716f44…
10-23 17:37:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	784	8¢	$63	0x4d107a…
10-23 17:35:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0xfa9593…
10-23 17:07:32	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xf456e0…
10-23 16:59:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xa50c2d…
10-23 16:56:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	201	8¢	$16	0x6498d8…
10-23 16:33:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0x5246fd…
10-23 16:07:50	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x67ec8b…
10-23 15:17:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0x71bb28…
10-23 15:01:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	8¢	$80	0xeabba6…
10-23 14:23:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x296457…
10-23 14:15:33	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x5dfb2f…
10-23 14:07:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0x9d6053…
10-23 13:40:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,527	8¢	$122	0x3b2dcb…
10-23 13:28:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x957eb4…
10-23 13:26:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x5434a7…
10-23 13:25:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xcaebd1…
10-23 13:21:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0xc78948…
10-23 13:21:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xa1b983…
10-23 13:16:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	418	8¢	$33	0x9de79d…
10-23 13:16:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	250	8¢	$20	0x570188…
10-23 12:45:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,244	7¢	$227	0xac0283…
10-23 12:43:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	395	8¢	$32	0xf5639f…
10-23 12:43:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	116	8¢	$9	0xa5b2ae…
10-23 12:43:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	191	8¢	$15	0x777a7e…
10-23 12:43:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	250	8¢	$20	0x1c64ea…
10-23 12:43:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	250	8¢	$20	0x268db3…
10-23 12:43:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x38f4a5…