Cylindrical-Jungle — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$293

Unrealized P&L

+$67

Hit rate

96.6%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

1,862 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$11.9K

$220.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$118

Open exposure

$682

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-05 18:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 112 days

Categories

Other

89% 74% +$3,686

Politics

11% 47% -$2,418

Sports

0% 43% -$339

Tech

0% 100% +$4

Crypto

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?	Yes	+300	$201	84¢	$250	+$50	11-02 17:11
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	+200	$162	93¢	$186	+$24	11-02 10:19
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.82% in November?	Yes	+100	$66	70¢	$70	+$5	11-05 10:55
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	+90	$52	66¢	$60	+$8	11-04 01:22
Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+146	$54	24¢	$35	-$19	11-03 13:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+300	$39	10¢	$28	-$10	11-03 13:43
Trump impeached and removed before 2028?	Yes	+100	$10	21¢	$21	+$10	11-04 05:00
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.59% in November?	Yes	+20	$12	72¢	$14	+$3	11-04 02:07
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+100	$11	12¢	$12	+$0	11-05 03:19
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	+20	$9	27¢	$5	-$3	11-04 16:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	99	$13.6K	77,551	79,764	-2,212	No	+$2,004	02-13 13:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	8	$11.1K	5,700	5,690	+10	Yes	+$254	04-12 22:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	10	$10.9K	7,107	4,350	+2,758	Yes	+$162	04-14 13:45
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	34	$9.8K	5,057	5,057	+0	No	+$221	03-30 20:46
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	23	$8.3K	5,494	4,642	+852	Yes	+$701	04-21 13:47
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	8	$7.7K	3,958	3,958	+0	No	+$91	03-21 15:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	49	$6.4K	13,600	10,800	+2,800	Yes	+$236	10-28 15:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April?	12	$6.0K	5,600	500	+5,100	Yes	+$66	04-07 22:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?	4	$5.8K	5,239	679	+4,560	Yes	+$76	03-31 15:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	8	$5.6K	5,414	300	+5,114	Yes	+$122	04-02 12:18
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	10	$5.4K	2,848	2,838	+10	Yes	+$168	03-17 11:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	155	$5.2K	29,008	29,007	+0	Yes	+$47	03-25 03:58
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	52	$4.8K	3,380	3,221	+159	No	-$191	04-11 03:55
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	11	$4.1K	2,103	2,103	+0	Yes	+$51	11-04 20:52
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by march 13 323 755 644	3	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$16	03-13 18:25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	14	$3.9K	3,205	2,205	+1,000	No	-$1,156	04-27 14:49
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	3	$3.7K	1,841	1,841	+0	Yes	+$3	01-30 12:13
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	24	$3.4K	2,023	2,123	-100	Yes	+$47	02-06 15:53
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	12	$3.3K	2,645	2,645	+0	No	+$649	04-08 17:52
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	56	$2.6K	2,608	2,058	+550	No	+$676	10-26 10:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	18	$2.5K	1,900	1,098	+802	Yes	+$97	04-14 23:35
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	8	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	10-26 17:18
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	7	$2.2K	1,160	1,160	+0	Yes	+$53	10-30 18:32
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 7?	21	$2.2K	1,160	1,160	+0	Yes	+$54	10-07 22:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	12	$2.1K	1,303	1,000	+303	Yes	+$51	03-31 18:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	11	$2.0K	2,000	1,500	+500	No	-$711	04-27 14:49
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	9	$1.9K	1,137	1,137	+0	No change	+$119	10-21 14:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	13	$1.7K	6,400	4,000	+2,400	No	-$8	10-26 18:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	6	$1.7K	1,005	1,005	+0	Yes	+$35	10-16 16:40
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	31	$1.6K	2,602	2,602	+0	No	-$861	05-29 20:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 18:30:21	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	97¢	$58	0xf47717…
11-05 18:28:34	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	90	97¢	$87	0xd97a6d…
11-05 17:26:30	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	74¢	$74	0xe34208…
11-05 11:32:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	286	73¢	$208	0xb559af…
11-05 10:55:18	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.82% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$14	0x60d1d1…
11-05 07:13:30	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	150	90¢	$136	0x4f26f6…
11-05 07:12:51	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.82% in November?	Yes	BUY	80	66¢	$52	0x2ff2c0…
11-05 07:12:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	475	67¢	$320	0x3bfa1c…
11-05 03:19:13	Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0xad224c…
11-05 03:14:18	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x1437c4…
11-04 20:52:30	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,513	100¢	$1,512	0x050a28…
11-04 20:51:18	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.9% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	98	98¢	$97	0x344d00…
11-04 20:47:58	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.9% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xa433bb…
11-04 20:45:16	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.9% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	99¢	$42	0x40f152…
11-04 20:30:01	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	950	99¢	$942	0x50428c…
11-04 20:14:25	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.9% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	96¢	$59	0xec4e1c…
11-04 20:14:00	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0x77d053…
11-04 20:14:00	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	256	95¢	$245	0x534b26…
11-04 16:44:51	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x7040d6…
11-04 16:37:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in November?	Yes	BUY	717	98¢	$703	0x5b8c4c…
11-04 16:37:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in November?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xfe0714…
11-04 15:45:07	Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	11¢	$8	0xa0bef0…
11-04 15:44:57	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	21¢	$17	0x8ee13f…
11-04 12:57:51	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x22e314…
11-04 07:58:03	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0xee0909…
11-04 05:30:00	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x989757…
11-04 05:00:34	Trump impeached and removed before 2028?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x1b49bf…
11-04 04:04:21	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0x8e70d8…
11-04 03:24:31	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x1a82b7…
11-04 03:02:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0782ec…
11-04 02:41:21	will wti dip to 95 by november 2 2026 from november 3	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xb9ff53…
11-04 02:18:27	Trump impeached and removed before 2028?	Yes	BUY	84	10¢	$9	0x4e7461…
11-04 02:07:51	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.59% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x54e2db…
11-04 01:56:42	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	800	100¢	$798	0x18f64a…
11-04 01:48:54	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x8e9e8e…
11-04 01:44:58	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	290	99¢	$286	0xacea96…
11-04 01:29:12	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0x4be6e4…
11-04 01:29:12	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x15fd31…
11-04 01:22:13	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x43bed5…
11-04 00:02:06	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0xbf1252…
11-03 22:05:39	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	72¢	$43	0x1d5148…
11-03 20:29:28	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	180	89¢	$160	0x966910…
11-03 20:28:40	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0xf7c7f3…
11-03 18:57:04	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xfc97c6…
11-03 18:54:54	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xe64164…
11-03 18:54:13	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0xeb095e…
11-03 18:53:19	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0x2ac707…
11-03 18:53:03	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x8e5378…
11-03 18:53:01	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x468aad…
11-03 18:52:30	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x5a9592…
11-03 18:51:45	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xce3c56…
11-03 15:18:24	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0xc5df32…
11-03 15:13:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0x8cc523…
11-03 15:03:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	433	6¢	$26	0x186b6e…
11-03 14:42:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	38	6¢	$2	0x80dcb8…
11-03 14:38:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x6f32eb…
11-03 14:23:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	500	6¢	$30	0x616d27…
11-03 14:04:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x877586…
11-03 13:59:22	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x81488d…
11-03 13:52:43	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xc1d420…
11-03 13:44:43	Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	37¢	$54	0x1620af…
11-03 13:43:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	13¢	$39	0xd48d85…
11-03 13:37:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	220	7¢	$15	0x016e26…
11-03 13:36:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	780	7¢	$55	0xa9e603…
11-03 13:30:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	97¢	$291	0x40e2d8…
11-03 13:20:48	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x132e35…
11-03 13:20:40	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x456e3e…
11-03 13:19:25	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xf35c99…
11-03 07:17:19	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0xb3b0eb…
11-02 22:31:30	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0xfde000…
11-02 22:31:30	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x833ae6…
11-02 22:31:30	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0x015cb7…
11-02 18:14:00	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0x69f7c8…
11-02 17:12:57	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xe92bb0…
11-02 17:12:57	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	143	94¢	$135	0x8e94c2…
11-02 17:11:58	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	67¢	$201	0xdf630d…
11-02 15:01:16	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	210	92¢	$193	0xbad6f6…
11-02 14:57:40	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x760fa7…
11-02 14:57:39	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	691	90¢	$621	0xcbc4e4…
11-02 10:19:28	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x69b2d0…
11-02 08:17:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	285	98¢	$279	0xa47fc4…
11-01 22:25:19	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	300	71¢	$213	0x91d84d…
10-30 18:32:52	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	663	100¢	$662	0x5f8123…
10-29 01:10:38	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	275	0¢	$0	0x973848…
10-28 21:39:52	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	74¢	$13	0x184281…
10-28 21:22:55	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0xce9d35…
10-28 21:19:52	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$0	0x892033…
10-28 20:44:31	Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x2d929e…
10-28 20:41:59	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x1e98e3…
10-28 20:41:56	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x22623b…
10-28 20:30:43	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,708	0¢	$2	0xfde4d9…
10-28 20:30:01	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	600	100¢	$599	0x65ac9b…
10-28 20:06:52	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xa3c1ff…
10-28 20:06:52	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x5d1581…
10-28 20:06:50	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	99	99¢	$99	0x5ce26b…
10-28 20:05:50	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0xf24080…
10-28 20:02:07	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 28?	No	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0xfe2fad…
10-28 20:01:58	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 28?	No	BUY	174	50¢	$87	0xa1f449…
10-28 19:52:38	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xa9fdd2…
10-28 19:14:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% in October?	Yes	SELL	169	5¢	$9	0x5e8d61…