Long-Eclipse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.97K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

89.7%

Resolved

Trades

126

lifetime

Volume

$20.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$165

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-19

last 09-23 03:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Other

96% 62% +$4,384

Politics

4% 25% -$372

Tech

0% 0% -$39

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		-69	-$1	1¢	$-1	+$0	09-23 03:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	3	$4.3K	5,000	0	+5,000	No	+$650	07-20 04:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$3.4K	1,850	1,850	+0	No	+$273	04-25 05:26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	5	$2.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$446	04-12 19:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$2.1K	3,508	0	+3,508	No	+$1,409	06-15 07:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	13	$2.0K	2,949	599	+2,350	No	+$852	05-05 19:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$990	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$510	06-04 15:23
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$922	1,100	0	+1,100	No	+$178	06-24 07:25
starmer out by june 22 2026	6	$690	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$310	06-22 05:44
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	2	$405	555	0	+555	No	-$405	05-10 18:37
Kash Patel out by May 31?	5	$400	945	145	+800	No	-$165	05-07 23:59
will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	2	$364	300	300	+0	Yes	+$162	03-27 14:07
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	8	$348	800	0	+800	Yes	-$348	06-24 07:20
will the liberal democratic party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 japanese snap general election	3	$325	410	0	+410	Yes	+$85	02-06 18:26
Kash Patel out by April 30?	16	$257	1,750	890	+860	No	-$39	04-29 07:53
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$222	250	0	+250	Yes	+$28	06-22 05:24
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	1	$221	250	0	+250	No	+$29	07-10 10:30
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 14?	2	$188	100	100	+0	No	-$2	05-14 05:06
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 1?	2	$165	247	0	+247	Yes	+$82	06-01 06:29
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	12	$159	550	267	+283	Yes	-$103	05-12 13:41
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	1	$142	250	0	+250	No	+$108	02-02 03:47
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 27?	1	$97	180	0	+180	No	-$97	05-26 23:56
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 27?	1	$84	200	0	+200	No	-$84	05-26 23:59
starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	1	$83	100	0	+100	Yes	+$17	06-22 05:14
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 15?	3	$78	88	0	+88	No	+$10	05-05 19:46
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1?	2	$68	220	0	+220	Yes	+$152	06-01 06:27
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 15?	1	$46	80	0	+80	Yes	+$34	05-15 16:10
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15?	3	$39	160	0	+160	Yes	-$39	05-15 16:15
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	1	$39	54	0	+54	No	-$39	07-20 05:11
will donald trump not announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve before february 2026	3	$28	55	15	+40	No	-$16	01-19 02:05
will the japan innovation party win the third most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	3	$20	110	0	+110	Yes	-$20	02-04 08:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-23 03:16:50	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	69	2¢	$1	0x0b4795…
07-20 05:11:10	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	Yes	BUY	54	72¢	$39	0xa54d19…
07-20 04:01:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	3,000	87¢	$2,610	0x8a610b…
07-20 03:59:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0xb210ba…
07-20 03:45:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0x3c0ff3…
07-10 10:30:16	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	BUY	250	88¢	$221	0x95a7e4…
06-25 00:53:44	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	No	BUY	300	6¢	$17	0x7e178d…
06-24 07:25:58	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	600	84¢	$504	0xad773f…
06-24 07:23:22	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	300	84¢	$252	0x3e1fda…
06-24 07:21:55	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x28a94b…
06-24 07:20:08	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xa559af…
06-24 07:19:37	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	80	45¢	$36	0x4a545c…
06-24 07:17:43	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	28	45¢	$13	0x15f07c…
06-24 07:16:46	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	240	44¢	$107	0xef16f6…
06-24 07:15:53	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0x557675…
06-24 07:14:59	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	201	43¢	$86	0xda4366…
06-24 07:13:50	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	41¢	$0	0xff7988…
06-24 07:13:26	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	134	41¢	$55	0xd14c0f…
06-22 05:44:38	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x9174c5…
06-22 05:44:26	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x33242e…
06-22 05:43:38	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0xdef944…
06-22 05:40:11	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	550	69¢	$379	0x75d2c1…
06-22 05:31:46	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	150	69¢	$103	0x4a3458…
06-22 05:30:50	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	175	69¢	$121	0xb71d98…
06-22 05:24:08	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	89¢	$222	0xeef250…
06-22 05:14:50	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xbc48c7…
06-15 07:58:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	950	71¢	$674	0xdd0939…
06-04 15:23:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	700	67¢	$469	0xb05062…
06-04 15:22:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	700	67¢	$469	0x80431b…
06-01 06:29:06	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x25fecb…
06-01 06:27:40	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	120	31¢	$37	0x6b740d…
06-01 02:24:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xe5726b…
06-01 02:21:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xa53066…
06-01 02:20:55	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x9c4d46…
06-01 02:19:27	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	147	66¢	$97	0x8d4276…
05-26 23:59:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xedb469…
05-26 23:56:13	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	180	54¢	$97	0xe55373…
05-26 23:48:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	700	60¢	$420	0x3201be…
05-20 07:36:15	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 20?	No	BUY	70	10¢	$7	0xc83209…
05-20 07:20:48	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x05587d…
05-15 16:15:38	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15?	No	BUY	18	20¢	$4	0x06bb65…
05-15 16:15:24	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15?	No	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xa09230…
05-15 16:15:22	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15?	No	BUY	108	24¢	$25	0xf1e3b3…
05-15 16:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	80	58¢	$46	0x91c5c1…
05-14 05:38:58	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 14?	Yes	BUY	60	29¢	$17	0x0c4956…
05-14 05:06:00	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 14?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x21b6f7…
05-14 05:00:42	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 14?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x054d7a…
05-12 13:41:52	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	92	7¢	$6	0xa04312…
05-10 19:31:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,228	54¢	$663	0xd4ff18…
05-10 18:37:14	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Yes	BUY	482	73¢	$352	0xa4d069…
05-10 18:36:18	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Yes	BUY	73	73¢	$53	0x51eb2f…
05-10 18:29:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	500	54¢	$270	0x4cf827…
05-07 23:59:28	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	300	20¢	$60	0xd092b1…
05-07 23:58:55	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	450	21¢	$94	0xc7b565…
05-07 23:41:33	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xaacb55…
05-07 23:40:23	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	SELL	145	81¢	$117	0x7fc561…
05-07 23:39:31	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	BUY	145	82¢	$119	0xdba2aa…
05-05 19:46:42	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 15?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x5e3ea9…
05-05 19:46:34	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 15?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x6ec7a5…
05-05 19:44:50	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 15?	No	BUY	69	89¢	$61	0xd1d769…
05-05 19:33:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,500	84¢	$1,260	0x7e81f0…
05-05 19:32:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	130	55¢	$72	0xe8a6f1…
04-30 07:11:16	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x88d7d7…
04-30 07:10:58	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x43d7bd…
04-29 18:42:54	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0xdb1b57…
04-29 07:53:50	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$15	0xbe44ab…
04-28 17:25:18	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	7¢	$2	0xfd5c4e…
04-28 17:06:22	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0xa710cf…
04-27 15:19:22	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	65	11¢	$7	0x7b0a80…
04-27 15:18:18	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x516461…
04-27 15:17:50	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	25	11¢	$3	0x4f5947…
04-26 17:12:38	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	270	12¢	$33	0x0d4e8f…
04-26 17:11:04	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	75	13¢	$9	0x6a6519…
04-26 17:08:14	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x167389…
04-26 17:07:06	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	75	13¢	$10	0xaad75d…
04-26 17:06:10	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	90	12¢	$11	0x3ec5ec…
04-26 17:04:48	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	80	12¢	$10	0x1feeac…
04-26 17:04:22	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x21d7ba…
04-26 12:16:12	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	25¢	$16	0xabc890…
04-25 21:12:48	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	23¢	$34	0x75eaf3…
04-25 17:02:40	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x5af6c7…
04-25 16:59:48	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x4468e1…
04-25 16:53:44	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	23¢	$58	0x67c28a…
04-25 16:52:30	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0x28fa42…
04-25 05:30:58	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$51	0x144510…
04-25 05:26:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,850	98¢	$1,815	0x848693…
04-25 05:26:04	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	250	11¢	$26	0xcf5a72…
04-25 04:55:22	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x7764bf…
04-25 04:50:40	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	230	11¢	$26	0xcf82f2…
04-25 04:47:34	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	230	11¢	$26	0x39dd5e…
04-19 18:57:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	800	32¢	$256	0xd206e4…
04-19 18:52:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	43	32¢	$14	0x99b74d…
04-19 18:26:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x1be1d2…
04-12 20:58:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1,850	83¢	$1,542	0xc66d3e…
04-12 19:29:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	84	100¢	$84	0x27ee56…
04-12 19:29:01	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	1,359	100¢	$1,354	0xe5ae90…
04-12 19:28:59	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0xcfed18…
04-09 23:58:41	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	1,060	70¢	$742	0x9737dd…
04-09 23:31:39	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	440	70¢	$308	0x246c6e…
04-05 00:12:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xbcfccc…