Unwieldy-Billing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$119.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$50.8K

Hit rate

76.4%

Resolved

287

Trades

36,427

lifetime

Volume

$42.8M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.18K

Open exposure

$98.4K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-29 17:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Politics

59% 82% -$180,853

Other

35% 87% +$58,034

Crypto

4% 75% +$2,019

Sports

1% 100% +$985

Tech

0% 100% +$218

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-29).

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+51,721	$38,929	92¢	$47.3K	+$8,396	07-03 06:31
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-51,721	-$42,446	92¢	$-47325	-$4,879	07-04 21:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-20,411	$52,113	18¢	$-3776	-$55,889	05-10 17:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+1	-$105	82¢	$1	+$106	05-23 13:55
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+0	-$1,473	92¢	$0	+$1,473	07-04 08:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	618	$5.04M	2,513,422	2,627,117	-113,694	Yes	+$406	04-08 00:14
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2,898	$3.51M	1,664,628	2,437,486	-772,858	Yes	-$37,685	02-03 20:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	486	$3.41M	1,765,462	1,673,330	+92,132	Yes	+$8,865	04-09 00:31
netanyahu out by march 31 854	620	$2.19M	1,126,107	1,129,581	-3,474	No	+$25,864	03-28 05:24
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	48	$1.73M	550,000	1,178,908	-628,908	No	-$871	04-30 19:49
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	723	$1.30M	6,086,717	5,108,042	+978,675	No	+$1,159	06-03 23:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	658	$1.17M	602,067	774,631	-172,563	Yes	-$6,886	07-29 17:42
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	465	$824.7K	436,370	401,191	+35,179	No	+$11,612	02-03 20:42
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	291	$728.2K	656,514	91,991	+564,523	No	+$12,944	03-04 17:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	178	$693.4K	377,421	360,329	+17,092	No	+$464	04-01 06:23
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	257	$691.5K	386,633	309,536	+77,097	Yes	+$2,677	02-03 20:03
will iran strike israel on march 3	166	$672.7K	453,617	220,000	+233,617	Yes	+$497	03-07 01:48
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	325	$602.0K	319,551	368,463	-48,912	No	+$13,615	06-25 05:56
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	120	$546.1K	548,888	0	+548,888	Yes	+$2,812	03-25 05:03
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	6,543	$522.0K	349,770	378,455	-28,685	No	-$8,600	02-12 03:50
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	109	$503.9K	475,293	190,000	+285,293	No	+$216	01-04 00:38
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$489.5K	490,000	0	+490,000	No	+$490	05-13 04:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	21	$488.9K	244,791	244,791	+0	Yes	+$210	03-04 17:00
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	52	$471.9K	172,508	300,000	-127,492	Yes	+$45	02-08 09:11
will the government shutdown last 3 days or more	533	$470.5K	289,052	182,263	+106,790	Yes	+$407	02-02 07:14
will iran strike israel on march 6	208	$458.7K	426,099	37,612	+388,487	No	+$4,596	03-11 12:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	121	$441.7K	426,817	428,901	-2,084	Yes	+$493	03-03 15:12
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	5	$430.4K	215,645	215,645	+0	Yes	+$0	04-05 05:35
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	856	$420.7K	415,055	625,044	-209,989	Yes	-$118,480	03-03 14:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1,364	$415.5K	795,950	816,360	-20,411	open	—	05-23 13:55
will bitcoin dip to 60k in february 2026 394 616	57	$411.0K	411,814	0	+411,814	Yes	+$773	02-06 03:49
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	24	$393.4K	393,753	0	+393,753	Yes	+$394	04-20 19:27
will iran strike israel on march 10	215	$372.4K	185,251	202,247	-16,996	Yes	+$10,298	03-14 02:44
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 6	171	$367.3K	305,399	62,698	+242,701	Yes	+$547	02-08 20:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	222	$359.9K	224,301	139,966	+84,335	No	+$1,398	04-01 06:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-29 17:42:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,750	76¢	$8,127	0x423cb3…
07-29 09:16:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,251	80¢	$1,798	0xa0c811…
07-29 07:45:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	47,749	80¢	$38,152	0x6eefc3…
07-28 17:33:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	45,533	80¢	$36,244	0xd96c85…
07-28 16:21:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xbde4c5…
07-28 16:21:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	127	82¢	$103	0x586655…
07-28 16:21:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	45	82¢	$37	0xbc9dae…
07-28 16:15:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x39449d…
07-28 16:13:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0x43c6e4…
07-28 16:13:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14,316	80¢	$11,396	0x30e165…
07-28 16:12:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	465	80¢	$370	0xe35cd3…
07-28 16:11:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0xc0d34e…
07-28 16:10:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	126	80¢	$100	0xcb47c3…
07-28 16:10:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	105	80¢	$83	0x464f8e…
07-28 16:09:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	113	79¢	$90	0xf6b65d…
07-28 16:09:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	79¢	$159	0xe10ade…
07-28 16:09:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,164	79¢	$924	0x38ad47…
07-28 16:09:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	907	79¢	$720	0xb3a3bd…
07-28 16:09:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	800	79¢	$635	0xaf1533…
07-28 16:09:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	83	79¢	$66	0xba338a…
07-28 16:09:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	62	79¢	$49	0x2e72c6…
07-28 16:09:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0x4d4242…
07-28 16:09:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x681101…
07-28 16:09:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xc4ddd9…
07-28 16:08:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	120	79¢	$95	0xbe3b38…
07-28 16:07:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xb89299…
07-28 16:07:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	51	79¢	$41	0xa0b212…
07-28 16:06:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25	79¢	$20	0x29573b…
07-28 16:06:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	31	79¢	$25	0x7fb7fa…
07-28 16:05:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	79¢	$10	0x7536b3…
07-28 16:05:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0xcf07a3…
07-28 16:05:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	79¢	$10	0x8cb86a…
07-28 16:03:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	391	79¢	$310	0x0f40b1…
07-28 16:03:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0xe83927…
07-28 16:03:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	79¢	$159	0xf3936f…
07-28 16:02:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x0d2668…
07-28 16:02:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	199	79¢	$158	0xd852e9…
07-28 16:02:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	79¢	$159	0x0978f0…
07-28 16:02:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	400	79¢	$318	0xa2a9bc…
07-28 16:02:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	157	79¢	$125	0xa305b0…
07-28 16:01:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0xd91275…
07-28 16:01:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	808	79¢	$642	0xaaf071…
07-28 16:01:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	630	79¢	$500	0x6306c8…
07-28 16:00:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0x2b55f7…
07-28 16:00:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	804	79¢	$639	0xc5e1f9…
07-28 16:00:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0xfea3c2…
07-28 15:59:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	79¢	$4	0x5033ad…
07-28 15:59:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	44	79¢	$35	0x522baf…
07-28 15:59:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,265	79¢	$2,592	0x904e43…
07-28 15:59:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	79¢	$794	0x525875…
07-28 15:58:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x0739fd…
07-28 15:57:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	79¢	$397	0xf2a9be…
07-28 15:57:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x0d3a40…
07-28 15:57:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	24	79¢	$19	0x56f295…
07-28 15:57:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0xc932f2…
07-28 15:57:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xa96d8a…
07-28 15:56:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	400	79¢	$318	0x32f81c…
07-28 15:56:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	630	79¢	$500	0xd8b09f…
07-28 15:56:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	126	79¢	$100	0x8d3965…
07-28 15:56:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	16	79¢	$13	0xece73a…
07-28 15:55:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0x9ee176…
07-28 15:55:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0xa5195a…
07-28 15:54:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,488	79¢	$1,181	0x5cd88d…
07-28 15:54:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	252	79¢	$200	0x9637ec…
07-28 15:54:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	126	79¢	$100	0xeb3d0c…
07-28 15:54:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	83	79¢	$66	0xb5e7e7…
07-28 15:53:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0xba8565…
07-28 15:53:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	63	79¢	$50	0x032a9a…
07-28 15:52:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	114	79¢	$90	0xd17bfb…
07-28 15:52:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	400	79¢	$318	0x94ede0…
07-28 15:52:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x446794…
07-28 15:51:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	630	79¢	$500	0x434a81…
07-28 15:51:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25	79¢	$20	0x7e51a6…
07-28 15:50:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,259	79¢	$1,000	0xcfd593…
07-28 15:50:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	52	79¢	$41	0x38e258…
07-28 15:50:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	16	79¢	$13	0xea79ee…
07-28 15:49:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	64	79¢	$51	0x84eecd…
07-28 15:49:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0xb82c9a…
07-28 15:49:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0xbb92a9…
07-28 15:48:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,433	79¢	$8,284	0x84c761…
07-28 15:32:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	76	79¢	$60	0x9e4eaa…
07-28 15:31:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0x0d89dc…
07-28 15:31:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	79¢	$397	0x89ec05…
07-28 15:31:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	101	79¢	$80	0xc9913e…
07-28 15:31:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0xaa9f00…
07-28 15:31:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	79¢	$10	0xe77eff…
07-28 15:31:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	191	79¢	$151	0xd78efb…
07-28 15:31:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x75febf…
07-28 15:31:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	147	79¢	$116	0x6fa774…
07-28 15:31:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x332429…
07-28 15:31:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x4b3756…
07-28 04:12:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	31,528	0¢	$32	0x50d075…
07-27 15:49:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	903	0¢	$2	0x61bbe8…
07-27 15:46:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa57ea2…
07-27 15:41:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x643534…
07-27 15:39:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x9321de…
07-27 14:53:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	530	0¢	$1	0xf0f8c5…
07-27 14:52:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0xe375c4…
07-27 14:50:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	429	0¢	$1	0xb960ae…
07-27 14:46:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$20	0xde017a…