Incomplete-Evidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

86.4%

Resolved

103

Trades

132

lifetime

Volume

$1.40K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-20 19:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

50% 93% +$3

Politics

25% 86% -$19

Crypto

17% 100% +$2

Tech

8% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No		+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	10-09 23:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$99	78	39	+39	Yes	-$32	10-15 02:32
us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	2	$89	45	45	+0	No	+$0	08-13 01:21
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$87	44	44	+0	No	+$0	08-31 16:36
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$86	46	46	+0	No	-$1	08-25 13:10
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$78	39	39	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 21:10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	10-03 04:41
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	1	$46	46	0	+46	Yes	+$0	09-04 06:17
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	08-20 21:11
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$45	46	0	+46	No	+$1	08-09 15:57
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$45	46	0	+46	No	+$2	08-13 22:30
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$44	45	0	+45	Yes	+$1	08-05 07:41
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	1	$43	44	0	+44	No	+$1	08-31 19:13
will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	06-30 02:35
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	1	$39	39	0	+39	Yes	+$0	09-22 14:03
laptop fdv above 1pt5b one day after launch	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	09-10 18:54
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	09-07 01:40
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	1	$37	37	0	+37	Yes	+$0	06-27 00:03
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	+$0	08-27 15:07
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$28	29	0	+29	Yes	+$0	07-31 01:58
msft above 495 on march 31 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	03-31 01:18
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	08-18 17:38
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	3	$16	8	8	+0	open	—	10-15 10:59
will solana dip to 60 in february 2026	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	02-28 09:35
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$15	15	0	+15	Yes	+$1	05-26 02:06
Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	05-13 17:31
will anthropic have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$13	13	0	+13	Yes	+$0	02-28 18:52
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	10-08 05:38
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	10-09 23:32
aapl above 210 on january 30 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	Yes	+$0	01-23 09:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 19:50:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0xcbcc1f…
10-15 10:59:12	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xccb1aa…
10-15 10:59:12	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$4	0x9db5fd…
10-15 02:32:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	39	84¢	$33	0x864a21…
10-09 23:32:19	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x35d4c0…
10-08 05:38:53	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x9149e8…
10-07 16:33:34	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	39	86¢	$34	0xaa8d92…
10-06 05:38:25	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x79f6bd…
10-05 02:21:01	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0xfb8994…
10-04 21:10:50	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xbaa51c…
10-03 10:39:09	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x7f1c49…
10-03 04:41:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xbdbbeb…
09-24 20:29:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xcf0ad6…
09-24 02:07:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x523b3b…
09-22 14:03:00	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xdb7019…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0xb5a3b4…
09-10 18:54:10	laptop fdv above 1pt5b one day after launch	No	BUY	39	100¢	$38	0x819bc0…
09-07 01:40:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xbcb39d…
09-06 09:22:19	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xb17426…
09-04 06:17:03	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x891479…
08-31 19:13:42	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0x06af61…
08-31 16:36:51	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xe020c5…
08-27 16:00:28	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xbe1860…
08-27 15:07:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x6ec761…
08-26 19:26:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf30e78…
08-25 13:35:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	SELL	136	0¢	$0	0x01adad…
08-25 13:33:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0x17457f…
08-25 13:31:04	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	SELL	44	0¢	$0	0x74ff6b…
08-25 13:10:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	93¢	$42	0xa62dba…
08-24 15:22:54	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	289	0¢	$0	0x478e95…
08-24 15:22:49	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x02e42f…
08-24 10:03:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on August 25?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0xf98a61…
08-24 08:09:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or below on August 25?	Yes	BUY	294	0¢	$0	0x79117f…
08-24 06:39:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xf85243…
08-24 06:34:19	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on August 25?	Yes	BUY	182	0¢	$0	0x42992b…
08-24 06:23:48	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x61c483…
08-24 06:23:46	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x30cfe0…
08-24 05:58:25	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on August 25?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xdc7ebf…
08-24 05:45:55	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on August 25?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x696890…
08-24 04:29:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	46	97¢	$44	0x940417…
08-20 21:11:48	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x281efa…
08-18 17:38:06	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xbbed8a…
08-17 11:15:21	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x666c70…
08-13 22:30:33	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	46	97¢	$45	0x759020…
08-13 01:21:12	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x76e409…
08-11 20:49:52	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xbb1e7d…
08-11 08:30:27	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x74762f…
08-09 15:57:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	46	99¢	$45	0x3726e5…
08-05 07:41:44	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0x4e1c12…
07-31 01:58:51	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0xdd0223…
07-30 13:40:41	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8a8e6d…
07-26 17:53:57	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x164090…
07-26 12:53:48	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xcf3bc0…
07-24 21:08:39	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x21aef1…
07-24 06:14:19	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5782f1…
07-23 06:52:46	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x312e46…
07-21 14:45:06	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xefc204…
07-17 12:26:43	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdbe95b…
06-30 02:35:38	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0xccc347…
06-27 10:40:44	will coin reach 200 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc9324c…
06-27 07:14:28	Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf157e8…
06-27 00:03:38	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x79bed9…
05-26 02:06:32	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	96¢	$15	0x7dd9b0…
05-13 17:31:54	Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6684d9…
05-13 16:54:16	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcccf3c…
05-10 05:00:20	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x54f8de…
05-09 01:53:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xcc7523…
05-08 17:53:57	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb5bf82…
05-08 06:27:42	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4b0473…
05-07 15:23:34	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc5fe03…
05-06 15:53:20	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x16ea10…
05-06 04:57:50	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x75e463…
05-05 19:45:14	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x71deb0…
05-05 18:39:50	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x86608e…
05-05 18:24:48	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0e72fe…
05-05 17:14:04	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x39c9e5…
04-29 01:03:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x740494…
04-27 12:52:28	Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa3d3ed…
04-25 18:35:14	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xadbec9…
04-23 20:50:02	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x97a641…
04-20 16:43:58	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xba3e46…
04-19 17:40:32	Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xe389f5…
04-19 11:30:56	Will XRP reach $2.40 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf51d6e…
04-18 21:38:48	Will BNB dip to $100 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x03080e…
04-18 08:23:42	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe0ed70…
04-17 14:18:10	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6f48e3…
04-16 06:41:44	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x89a5ac…
04-15 06:22:28	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf827d0…
04-14 14:51:29	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe71b12…
04-14 02:53:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc50614…
04-05 18:02:29	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3c672b…
03-31 01:18:33	msft above 495 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x2a119f…
03-30 00:38:14	nflx above 120 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdc4b11…
03-29 03:00:24	meta above 680 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfd39ce…
03-26 10:43:41	will xrp reach 3 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x803054…
03-24 15:14:25	googl above 360 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa2e600…
03-22 11:36:41	nflx above 180 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x668171…
03-19 21:25:07	amzn above 250 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5ab8ae…
03-18 19:20:29	will ethena reach 0pt32 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5da919…
03-15 17:55:13	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9383c4…