Constant-Chimpanzee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

106

Trades

129

lifetime

Volume

$1.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-28 11:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

52% 98% +$7

Politics

31% 100% +$8

Crypto

16% 100% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$113	59	59	+0	No	+$1	10-28 11:09
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	2	$86	43	43	+0	Yes	+$0	08-13 02:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$75	39	39	+0	No	+$0	08-26 16:38
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$49	50	0	+50	Yes	+$1	10-02 07:36
will xi jinping visit us by september 23	1	$49	49	0	+49	Yes	+$0	09-23 10:10
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	1	$48	48	0	+48	Yes	+$0	09-04 06:17
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	1	$43	44	0	+44	Yes	+$1	10-13 11:41
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$42	43	0	+43	No	+$0	08-17 05:38
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	08-15 06:21
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$41	42	0	+42	No	+$1	08-13 15:01
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$39	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	08-20 21:33
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	2	$39	39	0	+39	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:02
will meituan have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	2	$39	39	0	+39	No	+$0	03-06 15:54
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$39	39	0	+39	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	1	$37	38	0	+38	No	+$1	08-31 04:09
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	5	$35	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	09-10 08:42
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$31	34	0	+34	Yes	+$3	08-04 20:58
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	10-01 03:46
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	09-28 14:50
will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	07-31 11:43
will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	07-31 23:40
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	2	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$0	10-26 13:37
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	06-29 21:23
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	05-31 08:05
Will Solana reach $160 in September?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	09-27 13:53
will ng reach 4 00 in june 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	06-28 15:21
amzn above 180 on february 27 2026	1	$11	11	0	+11	Yes	+$0	02-25 01:31
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	09-12 22:50
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	06-01 02:04
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	2	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-10 22:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 11:09:23	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	54	96¢	$52	0x06f00e…
10-28 11:08:41	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xdeb679…
10-28 10:26:37	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	59	95¢	$56	0xca7928…
10-26 13:37:33	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x614fff…
10-25 22:53:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	55	9¢	$5	0xda23d5…
10-23 01:52:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	55	0¢	$0	0x39b840…
10-23 01:52:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x05ddf6…
10-13 11:41:37	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0x223e1e…
10-08 01:24:02	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x72033b…
10-02 07:36:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xa60f14…
10-01 05:58:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0a61ae…
10-01 03:46:06	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x21b8fb…
09-28 14:50:53	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x3cb5d1…
09-27 13:53:59	Will Solana reach $160 in September?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x7d4a84…
09-27 08:01:29	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3266e8…
09-23 10:10:23	will xi jinping visit us by september 23	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0xffbe05…
09-16 00:02:51	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x0abad5…
09-15 23:31:03	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7e5034…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x77e719…
09-12 22:50:49	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9ce7a1…
09-10 08:42:01	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1ab9dc…
09-10 08:42:00	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd45120…
09-10 08:42:00	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x53f8ee…
09-10 08:42:00	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x0fe630…
09-10 08:38:15	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x74cf27…
09-04 06:17:03	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x891479…
08-31 04:09:57	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x9145a9…
08-26 16:38:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	39	96¢	$37	0x71f971…
08-24 08:20:55	Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcf2e66…
08-24 07:38:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$37	0x94a91d…
08-24 01:19:45	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5a08d5…
08-20 21:33:36	Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x5cb303…
08-20 17:29:10	Will Thinky be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6c9e66…
08-20 12:19:46	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa3ad29…
08-20 10:51:40	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	0¢	$0	0x32085e…
08-20 10:50:00	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	225	0¢	$1	0x5498cc…
08-20 10:49:30	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xfa1353…
08-20 04:28:55	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0x0d25a5…
08-20 02:23:19	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0x1ddf9a…
08-17 05:38:25	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	43	99¢	$42	0x0295a0…
08-15 06:21:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	42	99¢	$42	0x279182…
08-13 15:01:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x168766…
08-13 11:12:45	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x01443e…
08-13 02:40:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xc532ca…
08-10 05:45:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x000671…
08-04 20:58:41	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	34	91¢	$31	0x1207af…
08-04 01:15:27	will ethereum dip to 1100 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1f4ee0…
07-31 23:40:42	will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x4039f3…
07-31 11:43:54	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xba3feb…
07-30 05:37:35	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf4f522…
07-26 15:48:07	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x203d73…
07-25 05:22:30	will xagusd reach 70 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x638071…
07-23 17:59:55	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcaf589…
07-23 16:10:15	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7fb91c…
07-23 10:10:19	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb1195d…
07-22 19:19:00	will bitcoin dip to 45k in july 2026 597	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x23d850…
07-20 21:26:04	will ethereum dip to 1300 in july 2026 715	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x98c7f2…
07-20 14:47:06	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfe54d3…
07-10 21:14:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf96ecf…
06-29 21:23:31	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xca3578…
06-29 00:50:37	will meta dip to 480 in june 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x45132f…
06-28 15:21:31	will ng reach 4 00 in june 2026	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x16f4de…
06-28 06:32:31	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe7ca83…
06-27 12:00:05	Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xb4958b…
06-27 10:35:50	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc1c2da…
06-27 03:22:04	Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x46a623…
06-26 22:45:23	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x27f9cb…
06-01 02:04:12	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6041a2…
05-31 08:05:23	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x960d82…
05-11 22:11:19	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x42eac2…
05-10 22:23:34	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x365de7…
05-10 11:49:07	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x17ba6b…
05-09 09:49:25	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x46380e…
05-08 14:23:03	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xec40fc…
05-08 04:58:39	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xbcad3b…
05-07 22:03:42	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x616d1f…
05-07 18:48:40	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbf8893…
05-07 15:59:39	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xb94809…
05-07 12:23:05	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x48f0d5…
05-07 07:11:05	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x33f37a…
05-06 10:17:02	Will Solana dip to $50 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x52e538…
05-05 16:27:28	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1618d2…
05-05 14:56:44	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x19564f…
04-27 02:09:40	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x91041a…
04-25 07:21:16	Will BNB reach $900 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0x0224e3…
04-24 02:19:08	Will BNB dip to $300 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf5e591…
04-22 07:56:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x72e0fa…
04-21 04:35:28	Will Amazon have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5fc180…
04-20 20:13:48	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x95623e…
04-19 20:46:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1dbb73…
04-19 15:48:42	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x993763…
04-19 00:53:08	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x821fed…
04-18 08:32:30	Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x90b625…
04-17 18:09:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf5b7b3…
04-17 09:08:52	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x684095…
04-16 14:09:04	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3b2c43…
04-15 09:13:32	Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8c6971…
04-14 11:08:47	Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x610122…
03-06 15:54:31	will meituan have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x3458a9…
03-06 07:15:35	will moonshot have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xde12dc…