Untrue-Spud — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$482

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.8%

Resolved

736

Trades

1,060

lifetime

Volume

$7.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 05-28 16:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Crypto

35% 74% -$191

Other

27% 44% +$20

Politics

24% 31% +$106

Sports

14% 25% -$410

Tech

0% 0% -$7

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-28).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Thunder vs. Spurs	7	$290	1,500	0	+1,500	Spurs	-$290	05-25 01:38
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	5	$270	142	142	+0	No	$0	04-21 03:02
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	15	$250	200	200	+0	No	+$1	04-21 19:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	4	$231	280	280	+0	No	-$30	04-18 12:41
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	4	$210	200	200	+0	No	+$174	05-25 23:12
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	4	$195	100	100	+0	Yes	+$4	05-03 00:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	7	$183	130	130	+0	No	+$58	05-22 21:55
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	15	$158	547	0	+547	No	-$60	05-24 02:25
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$138	395	395	+0	No	-$13	05-25 23:16
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	6	$133	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$72	05-11 19:06
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?	3	$115	200	0	+200	No	-$115	04-22 00:25
Thunder vs. Lakers	5	$105	140	140	+0	Thunder	+$19	05-10 02:46
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?	2	$104	54	54	+0	Yes	+$4	05-01 15:55
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$98	210	210	+0	Yes	+$21	05-28 16:31
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	8	$90	147	30	+117	Yes	+$26	05-16 01:29
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	4	$87	70	70	+0	Knicks	+$39	05-20 02:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$78	100	100	+0	No	+$46	05-23 20:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	3	$77	210	210	+0	No	+$49	05-24 03:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$77	100	100	+0	No	+$39	05-24 00:29
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	4	$76	2,000	0	+2,000	No	-$76	05-25 23:28
Trump kiss by May 31?	2	$73	200	200	+0	Yes	+$53	05-20 13:33
Will Sabrina Carpenter be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	4	$70	120	105	+15	Yes	-$17	05-05 00:33
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	3	$68	50	50	+0	Yes	+$27	05-27 12:51
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?	4	$66	200	88	+112	Yes	-$38	05-02 01:32
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$60	200	200	+0	No	-$7	05-25 22:14
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	6	$58	100	40	+60	Timberwolves	-$13	05-11 01:08
Spurs vs. Thunder	5	$48	90	0	+90	Spurs	-$48	05-19 01:36
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	2	$48	50	100	-50	Yes	+$6	04-24 10:42
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	3	$47	120	20	+100	Yes	-$20	05-15 23:41
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	4	$41	109	109	+0	Yes	+$6	05-05 21:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-28 16:31:37	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	210	28¢	$60	0x39ad8c…
05-27 12:51:51	Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x639e92…
05-26 02:04:28	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0xce156c…
05-26 02:04:21	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$8	0x7fb38a…
05-26 02:04:14	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xac77d1…
05-25 23:28:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x7d8884…
05-25 23:28:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	963	4¢	$35	0xcc3436…
05-25 23:28:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	36	4¢	$1	0x49cdd5…
05-25 23:27:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$40	0x0aa19f…
05-25 23:24:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	3¢	$29	0x3f25ec…
05-25 23:16:21	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	395	16¢	$62	0x867d4c…
05-25 23:12:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xd9c823…
05-25 23:00:26	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x742c71…
05-25 22:59:16	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0x8cab26…
05-25 22:58:23	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	20¢	$29	0x1dbd6e…
05-25 22:16:58	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	19¢	$28	0x0ab78e…
05-25 22:14:29	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	13¢	$26	0x679335…
05-25 22:05:51	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x403c59…
05-25 22:05:29	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	35	38¢	$13	0x914a49…
05-25 22:04:59	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x283663…
05-25 22:04:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x79e6c3…
05-25 22:04:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$1	0xcb0705…
05-25 22:04:29	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x946296…
05-25 22:04:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xeff5fa…
05-25 21:54:27	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5542e2…
05-25 21:40:52	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	66	26¢	$17	0xa89ff0…
05-25 03:42:20	Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xcc5fb8…
05-25 03:39:58	Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0x2a212b…
05-25 01:38:05	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	354	14¢	$50	0xf96ed7…
05-25 01:38:05	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	46	14¢	$6	0xa700c6…
05-25 01:38:05	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0x6b816b…
05-25 01:38:05	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	54	14¢	$8	0x4f2c56…
05-25 01:38:03	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	26	14¢	$4	0xf7b005…
05-25 01:35:01	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	500	22¢	$110	0xae00b6…
05-25 00:34:09	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	500	22¢	$110	0x60e137…
05-24 14:27:31	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$13	0x67f802…
05-24 03:46:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x7ff1b6…
05-24 03:33:10	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	210	30¢	$63	0x123bf4…
05-24 02:25:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x2f2e43…
05-24 02:24:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x9f5331…
05-24 02:15:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x363505…
05-24 01:52:46	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	BUY	98	79¢	$78	0x1db965…
05-24 01:15:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	94	23¢	$22	0x00cf3a…
05-24 01:13:57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0xd99651…
05-24 01:13:53	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x9c3518…
05-24 01:13:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xe20357…
05-24 01:13:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0x6a43c9…
05-24 01:12:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xc71566…
05-24 01:12:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xb15ef0…
05-24 01:12:26	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x14721f…
05-24 01:12:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xf40d6d…
05-24 01:12:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x51dc10…
05-24 01:12:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xa5af88…
05-24 00:45:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x831592…
05-24 00:45:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	6	26¢	$1	0x92a359…
05-24 00:41:27	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	188	9¢	$17	0xfd6566…
05-24 00:41:26	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xd8cfb1…
05-24 00:41:26	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0x9db76a…
05-24 00:29:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x54b346…
05-23 23:50:51	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	23	27¢	$6	0xe09576…
05-23 21:12:48	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$33	0xc59e4b…
05-23 21:05:25	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x97d2c7…
05-23 20:54:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0x277cb7…
05-23 18:54:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$13	0x7c861b…
05-23 14:59:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	34	23¢	$8	0x8bcaf8…
05-23 14:49:29	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	16	23¢	$4	0xdab4d0…
05-23 14:48:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x707e16…
05-23 13:29:38	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xef9fb7…
05-23 00:24:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x6ef7a3…
05-22 21:55:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	130	92¢	$120	0xf9925a…
05-22 21:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0xcdfad1…
05-22 20:50:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x0386f7…
05-22 20:50:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0xb95fe0…
05-22 20:40:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0x492214…
05-22 20:33:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4091b6…
05-22 16:51:46	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	35	25¢	$9	0x7955ff…
05-22 15:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x9681c2…
05-22 14:52:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xe6959b…
05-22 14:51:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xc6d091…
05-22 14:24:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x23b97f…
05-22 14:04:25	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	BUY	45	9¢	$4	0xecb103…
05-22 14:04:18	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0xa51ca9…
05-22 14:03:48	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x48960d…
05-22 14:03:25	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	BUY	92	10¢	$9	0xa73020…
05-22 14:03:13	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x90ae18…
05-21 22:23:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0xb3fde9…
05-21 20:57:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x45366d…
05-21 20:13:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x827f2c…
05-21 20:04:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xfb2c65…
05-21 20:03:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x6f2c63…
05-21 19:40:32	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x1c724e…
05-21 19:40:27	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0x8f35ae…
05-21 19:40:18	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x760a17…
05-21 16:06:19	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xde6247…
05-21 07:03:50	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x10277a…
05-21 07:02:12	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x504400…
05-21 06:55:32	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x00c1cd…
05-21 06:53:50	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x8897e7…
05-21 06:06:40	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2b3fa0…
05-21 02:56:57	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x4cb425…