Joyous-Triad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

93.0%

Resolved

102

Trades

121

lifetime

Volume

$989

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$24

1 position

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-20 10:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

59% 96% +$1

Politics

26% 83% +$1

Crypto

12% 100% +$0

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+47	$33	51¢	$24	-$9	10-20 10:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	2	$77	38	38	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 13:19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$75	38	38	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	2	$67	33	33	+0	Yes	+$0	08-13 03:17
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$63	39	39	+0	Yes	+$0	10-18 00:05
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	08-31 18:24
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	2	$55	30	30	+0	open	—	10-04 02:44
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$36	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	08-05 13:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$33	34	0	+34	No	+$1	08-14 03:59
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$33	47	0	+47	open	—	10-20 10:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	07-31 20:58
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	09-16 08:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
will meta dip to 480 in july 2026	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	07-31 09:00
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$30	31	0	+31	No	+$0	08-22 01:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$0	08-26 16:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	05-30 23:02
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	10-01 01:34
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	09-29 01:13
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	02-28 05:35
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	06-29 22:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	10-01 02:54
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$1	10-03 23:03
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$11	12	0	+12	No	+$0	06-29 07:12
msft above 555 on january 30 2026	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	01-23 13:35
tsla above 460 on february 27 2026	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	02-25 18:52
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-08 23:17
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	3	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	04-25 06:00
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	2	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-08 09:49
will alibaba have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	01-17 16:16
will xrp dip to 1pt2 in january 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-14 01:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 10:37:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	47	70¢	$33	0xe108f4…
10-18 00:05:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	39	80¢	$31	0x0fa44d…
10-15 10:51:55	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0x560753…
10-04 02:44:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	30	92¢	$27	0x4ae5bb…
10-03 23:03:11	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$12	0xb54603…
10-01 02:54:20	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf45f97…
10-01 01:34:27	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xde1246…
09-30 04:44:11	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfe5060…
09-29 01:13:42	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xe0d8d7…
09-26 18:40:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$27	0xfaff5f…
09-23 11:38:31	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x711f88…
09-16 08:22:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xd90058…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x77e719…
09-13 00:03:45	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x22351a…
09-10 13:19:15	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x66b773…
09-09 18:53:21	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x897f8c…
09-07 13:03:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xc72ac7…
09-04 14:13:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	38	99¢	$37	0xe4aeed…
08-31 18:24:49	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xc9ddc5…
08-28 13:46:54	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x09ff3b…
08-26 16:38:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x71f971…
08-25 15:54:06	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xcceac5…
08-25 04:31:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1d3494…
08-24 16:15:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x719e85…
08-23 21:08:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6cac9f…
08-22 01:22:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$30	0x347b92…
08-21 13:16:28	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x430394…
08-19 14:20:09	will xauusd dip to 3700 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x80df29…
08-17 11:00:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xfbc155…
08-16 12:52:22	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8e6fd6…
08-14 03:59:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0x60dbe2…
08-13 03:17:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xc1d97e…
08-09 14:41:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x8aaeb6…
08-09 07:08:03	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x11c161…
08-09 00:36:39	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4a33e0…
08-05 13:22:21	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xd234aa…
08-03 21:27:08	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbfda59…
07-31 20:58:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x022841…
07-31 09:00:39	will meta dip to 480 in july 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x0d7456…
07-28 20:29:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaa6c0f…
07-27 05:43:48	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x307a7f…
07-26 08:44:55	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026 367	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x152ec1…
07-23 09:13:45	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xed2099…
07-21 11:43:40	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x064c84…
06-29 22:05:35	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5640e1…
06-29 07:12:07	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x676804…
06-28 08:37:34	will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xe76c27…
06-27 15:45:56	will googl reach 390 in june 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x26e9b2…
06-27 09:32:08	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xadf434…
06-27 08:05:52	will googl reach 390 in june 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x108d8d…
06-27 04:59:38	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe7427e…
06-26 22:31:02	will coin reach 200 in june 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x76f012…
06-07 06:54:40	Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2d0e78…
05-30 23:02:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x07c92c…
05-11 01:11:59	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe03a3b…
05-10 12:46:46	Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf635cb…
05-09 19:03:21	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0552af…
05-09 16:58:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x018fc8…
05-08 23:17:16	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x30654d…
05-08 09:49:22	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1007e3…
05-06 05:51:24	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xaf7f5c…
05-06 03:42:26	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3a707d…
05-05 19:53:58	Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfb2a42…
05-05 10:37:32	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x66bbf2…
05-05 08:25:46	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x738e92…
04-26 10:55:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf54600…
04-25 06:00:38	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1b67c6…
04-24 06:07:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xeec1f0…
04-22 23:33:46	Will Solana reach $150 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcfea82…
04-21 12:31:02	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbd46a1…
04-20 16:39:40	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2cfa5f…
04-20 00:30:32	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x607bce…
04-19 04:54:20	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x8a6934…
04-19 00:21:22	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3d13aa…
04-18 10:22:06	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa2a7b7…
04-17 12:32:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x666827…
04-16 19:00:36	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3fbc74…
04-14 23:53:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf27208…
04-14 17:37:06	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3fca88…
03-30 04:55:36	will ethereum dip to 1400 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x37bcdd…
03-29 15:59:24	will hyperliquid dip to 28 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6a9f36…
03-27 04:15:41	will elon musks net worth be between 700b and 710b on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb1faae…
03-25 16:04:53	will xrp reach 2pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd89866…
03-24 06:49:57	nflx above 180 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x31ec38…
03-22 21:44:55	nflx above 200 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x885428…
03-21 14:40:29	will ethereum dip to 600 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaa74e9…
03-21 13:22:55	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x33b52b…
03-20 07:57:09	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3a482b…
03-18 16:32:41	will ethena reach 0pt32 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf5999f…
03-17 06:34:07	will solana reach 160 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf166e5…
03-13 18:12:45	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x509413…
03-10 10:28:07	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x593a5e…
03-08 23:49:21	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x64812b…
03-08 11:57:03	will solana dip to 20 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa11c5e…
03-07 12:37:29	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x674ced…
03-05 07:10:59	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb6f02a…
03-05 06:38:51	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1293fe…
02-28 05:35:55	will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xec6358…
02-25 18:52:28	tsla above 460 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x26a3b2…
02-24 13:55:36	will dogecoin reach 0pt25 in february 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x38253b…