Lean-Appliance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-28

last 06-26 08:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

54% 33% +$3

Politics

46% 44% $-4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$143	115	115	+0	Yes	$-1	05-31 19:31
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	10	$124	237	237	+0	open	—	06-25 13:35
Will Alberta join the US?	2	$101	53	53	+0	open	—	06-03 13:07
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$99	51	51	+0	No	+$0	06-25 06:23
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	7	$96	92	92	+0	open	—	06-26 08:59
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	2	$95	65	65	+0	No	+$0	06-20 20:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$91	47	47	+0	No	+$0	06-23 19:38
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	3	$89	58	58	+0	open	—	05-30 05:07
israel closes its airspace by july 31	3	$87	52	52	+0	No	+$1	06-20 10:44
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	4	$83	52	52	+0	No	$-1	06-23 06:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	4	$79	40	40	+0	No	+$0	06-01 04:42
Iran leadership change by June 30?	7	$77	169	169	+0	No	+$0	06-01 01:21
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	3	$77	39	39	+0	No	+$0	05-28 15:27
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	5	$76	76	76	+0	Yes	+$5	06-23 13:55
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$63	34	34	+0	No	+$0	06-19 19:01
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	9	$51	183	183	+0	No	$-3	06-24 00:01
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$47	107	107	+0	Yes	$-1	06-03 17:15
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	2	$9	157	157	+0	No	$-1	06-02 05:03
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$3	105	105	+0	No	$-0	05-28 05:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 08:59:14	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xed8075…
06-25 13:35:49	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	23	92¢	$21	0xe910ad…
06-25 13:35:49	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	26	92¢	$24	0x93ebf3…
06-25 09:52:35	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	49	92¢	$45	0xb2c795…
06-25 06:23:11	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	51	97¢	$50	0x13f1d8…
06-25 03:56:20	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x93b46c…
06-24 15:30:26	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	19¢	$6	0x876078…
06-24 15:30:26	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	19¢	$2	0x5191e6…
06-24 13:12:26	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	18¢	$8	0x76910f…
06-24 00:01:02	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	17	97¢	$17	0x6175af…
06-23 22:45:56	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xde2f1d…
06-23 22:45:56	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xcb1ccf…
06-23 19:38:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	47	97¢	$45	0xe79f0d…
06-23 17:40:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	47	97¢	$45	0xb33203…
06-23 13:55:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	46	53¢	$24	0x1bf794…
06-23 13:54:56	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0x645eb9…
06-23 13:54:56	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	19	53¢	$10	0x010199…
06-23 10:07:14	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0x49e9d7…
06-23 10:07:14	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	44	47¢	$21	0x42f35b…
06-23 06:26:59	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0xc8f388…
06-23 06:26:43	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x9b6e49…
06-23 06:26:40	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0x397ce3…
06-23 03:13:04	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	52	81¢	$42	0x2b8939…
06-23 00:03:56	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0xd4db9a…
06-23 00:03:56	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	46	80¢	$37	0xaf62fb…
06-22 20:50:22	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x875e98…
06-20 20:53:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	65	73¢	$47	0xc7349c…
06-20 20:52:53	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	65	73¢	$47	0xfe1d02…
06-20 10:44:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	SELL	21	84¢	$18	0xc57276…
06-20 10:44:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	SELL	31	84¢	$26	0x9ee9da…
06-20 08:22:28	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	52	83¢	$43	0x5ff9e0…
06-19 19:01:47	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	34	93¢	$32	0xdfed93…
06-19 17:06:55	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	34	93¢	$32	0x2148b6…
06-18 03:10:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	44	5¢	$2	0xc6e2d7…
06-18 03:10:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	41	5¢	$2	0xbf7b19…
06-18 03:10:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	5¢	$1	0xa07c5f…
06-18 03:10:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	44	5¢	$2	0x81869b…
06-18 03:10:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x665956…
06-18 00:28:25	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	166	6¢	$11	0x309e96…
06-17 20:16:01	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0xe364a7…
06-17 20:16:01	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x359663…
06-17 20:15:43	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	9¢	$5	0xaf29a7…
06-17 20:15:43	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	68	9¢	$6	0x17cc2c…
06-17 20:15:43	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	9¢	$3	0x0c2ac4…
06-17 18:19:58	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	138	9¢	$12	0x859281…
06-17 18:19:58	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x0a488e…
06-03 17:15:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	107	22¢	$23	0x55d73c…
06-03 14:38:06	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	107	22¢	$24	0xa848bc…
06-03 13:07:20	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x10d68f…
06-03 10:50:31	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0xa37b3a…
06-02 05:03:08	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	157	3¢	$4	0x12d976…
06-02 01:15:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	157	3¢	$5	0x8b118f…
06-01 04:42:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x4481be…
06-01 01:21:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	53	7¢	$4	0xc2649a…
06-01 01:21:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	51	7¢	$4	0xac7c5f…
06-01 01:21:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	34	7¢	$2	0x82a6b8…
05-31 23:40:02	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	138	7¢	$10	0x1af945…
05-31 19:31:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	37	70¢	$26	0xfb04cc…
05-31 15:51:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x1bf81b…
05-31 15:51:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0xd38f67…
05-30 18:19:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	23	93¢	$21	0x115b86…
05-30 18:19:35	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x6eb224…
05-30 16:32:03	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	31	93¢	$29	0x91f3cf…
05-30 05:07:34	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	42	77¢	$32	0x747282…
05-30 05:07:34	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	16	77¢	$12	0x671918…
05-30 01:53:59	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	58	77¢	$45	0x76ca0d…
05-29 06:51:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	28	58¢	$16	0xbe418d…
05-29 06:51:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0x7887e4…
05-29 05:37:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	59¢	$46	0x4b440e…
05-29 02:58:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x93905b…
05-29 02:58:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x028958…
05-28 23:27:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x915670…
05-28 15:27:23	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x14fb65…
05-28 15:27:23	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x0fb42b…
05-28 11:27:42	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0x24664e…
05-28 05:55:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0xd3fab0…
05-28 05:55:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0x5b5825…
05-28 04:30:26	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0x2c7205…