Exalted-Brink — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30

Unrealized P&L

+$12

Hit rate

64.4%

Resolved

Trades

294

lifetime

Volume

$3.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$57

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 07-05 15:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 71% +$30

Other

21% — —

Politics

14% — —

Tech

5% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+50	$32	84¢	$42	+$9	07-02 14:28
Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No		+15	$12	99¢	$15	+$3	07-03 19:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	6	$165	50	150	-100	open	—	06-16 14:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	3	$139	74	74	+0	Up	$-1	05-10 15:47
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	3	$103	70	50	+20	open	—	05-17 02:27
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	06-30 15:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$80	83	3	+80	Up	$-0	05-11 14:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	2	$71	102	102	+0	open	—	05-03 06:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	1	$70	71	0	+71	Down	+$1	05-11 14:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	1	$70	71	0	+71	Up	+$1	05-10 15:38
fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	3	$60	50	50	+0	open	—	07-03 20:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$59	75	75	+0	open	—	06-14 21:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	3	$56	63	0	+63	Up	+$4	05-08 19:49
fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	2	$53	28	28	+0	open	—	07-02 20:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$51	57	0	+57	Up	+$6	05-10 12:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	1	$50	79	0	+79	Up	+$29	05-10 12:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	05-03 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	1	$50	52	0	+52	open	—	05-03 07:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	1	$50	52	0	+52	open	—	05-03 07:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	3	$50	70	0	+70	Up	$-0	05-10 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	1	$49	49	0	+49	open	—	05-03 07:04
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	2	$48	25	25	+0	open	—	07-01 00:15
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	2	$46	30	30	+0	open	—	06-27 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	1	$45	51	0	+51	open	—	05-03 06:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$41	25	25	+0	open	—	06-25 12:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	1	$40	41	0	+41	open	—	05-03 07:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	05-03 06:29
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	4	$39	45	45	+0	open	—	07-01 00:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	3	$36	53	28	+25	open	—	05-02 09:25
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	1	$36	50	0	+50	open	—	07-04 15:17
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	6	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	06-27 13:15
fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 btts	2	$33	25	25	+0	open	—	07-01 21:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 19:13:35	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x264a8b…
07-05 15:29:08	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 corners team home 4pt5	Over	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xb19b6b…
07-04 15:17:08	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x7c2549…
07-03 20:09:40	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Egypt	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0xa4a25d…
07-03 19:50:43	Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x825ce7…
07-03 16:45:52	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0xcfa3a1…
07-03 14:33:38	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x6be6a0…
07-02 20:53:28	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 2pt5	Spain	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xc85f7c…
07-02 20:52:59	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	Spain	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x2a3d8c…
07-02 20:39:35	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	Spain	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x26eb66…
07-02 20:37:31	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x73e59a…
07-02 14:28:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0x153839…
07-01 21:01:08	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 btts	Yes	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x6b2d9b…
07-01 18:41:01	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 btts	Yes	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0x779fef…
07-01 00:15:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x377162…
07-01 00:14:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x3a4466…
07-01 00:11:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0x70b309…
06-30 20:36:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xd8ac1a…
06-30 15:11:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x5fc272…
06-29 14:39:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xf3e060…
06-28 20:28:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xe01437…
06-27 18:01:26	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xfe499f…
06-27 13:55:07	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	SELL	30	87¢	$26	0x0856f1…
06-27 13:15:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x2c7ddb…
06-27 05:50:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x1d5dd3…
06-27 05:10:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x395c48…
06-27 04:56:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xa7f2ad…
06-27 04:55:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	4	80¢	$4	0xe98e00…
06-27 04:53:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3ed573…
06-27 02:31:04	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x6f9bcc…
06-26 04:19:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x6eea5f…
06-26 01:21:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x703809…
06-26 01:10:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x24f791…
06-25 19:58:25	fifwc kor civ 2026 06 25 btts	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xca0746…
06-25 12:15:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	25	91¢	$23	0xe905d3…
06-25 09:14:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	30	28¢	$8	0x57c3c8…
06-25 08:35:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	0	64¢	$0	0xa8b2fa…
06-24 18:27:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x236566…
06-22 19:59:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0x1b099d…
06-22 16:59:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	25	94¢	$23	0x649d34…
06-22 08:32:19	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xb23d52…
06-21 17:49:32	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x94c9ef…
06-17 15:30:05	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x2698ac…
06-17 09:38:17	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x77c0b9…
06-17 03:53:34	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x6ad955…
06-16 20:27:23	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x62cf84…
06-16 17:19:11	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xac297c…
06-16 17:18:59	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0x393cf3…
06-16 16:03:26	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xad1f7f…
06-16 14:45:35	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x125ee9…
06-16 14:32:56	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xb6d9af…
06-14 21:32:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x1e6232…
06-14 21:25:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	75	19¢	$14	0x2176ef…
06-14 20:23:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0x6f52d6…
06-14 03:24:42	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6d7a75…
06-13 21:51:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0xb25352…
06-13 20:16:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xd780b9…
06-13 16:13:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x7c6858…
06-13 15:33:46	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xa5ad8a…
06-12 15:35:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xc37b80…
06-12 15:18:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xa37a0e…
06-12 11:49:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x8a35f7…
06-12 11:45:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x0f219d…
06-12 03:20:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x9882b2…
06-12 00:52:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xd2c844…
06-10 20:07:55	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xc33894…
06-10 18:37:30	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x40ce27…
06-10 13:46:55	israel closes its airspace by june 12	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x8342fc…
06-09 18:15:06	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x275e1a…
06-09 11:06:49	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x069209…
06-09 11:05:46	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x0ed114…
06-09 01:41:09	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb25ab3…
06-08 01:33:33	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x3773b6…
06-07 10:00:48	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x69560a…
06-07 09:05:52	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6b9626…
06-06 14:52:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xa26154…
06-06 10:48:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x01c7da…
06-06 09:25:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xda0b13…
05-23 17:03:18	Named storm forms before hurricane season?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xde04e3…
05-20 16:15:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc2ba07…
05-20 12:01:00	Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x4419f7…
05-20 12:00:55	Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x02f7c3…
05-20 11:58:35	Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xda3e42…
05-20 11:40:07	Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xfd8d8d…
05-20 11:37:24	Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x6feab5…
05-20 11:33:02	Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdce4f1…
05-18 09:25:18	Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x08f5fb…
05-17 10:06:07	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x272302…
05-17 08:51:26	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x3d0fe9…
05-17 05:04:10	Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x89e44b…
05-17 02:27:53	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xbd52ca…
05-17 02:14:12	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x4aee46…
05-16 12:40:24	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x38150a…
05-16 06:34:21	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x7f39b9…
05-16 06:29:17	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xbfd700…
05-14 10:38:48	Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x4570ea…
05-14 10:38:29	Will Trump say "Nixon" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xd3fa8d…
05-14 10:38:15	Will Trump say "Tiger" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x57fbcb…
05-14 10:36:10	Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x319c1e…
05-14 10:05:26	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x84aae6…