Variable-Tangerine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

72.7%

Resolved

304

Trades

696

lifetime

Volume

$9.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 10-21 13:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Other

75% 77% -$14

Crypto

15% 82% +$0

Politics

7% 63% $0

Sports

2% 62% $0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No		+9	$9	100¢	$9	$0	10-21 13:45
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No		+1	$1	100¢	$1	$0	09-16 15:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on July 16?	5	$117	59	59	+0	No	$0	07-16 10:43
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on May 29?	9	$92	46	46	+0	No	+$0	05-29 08:55
ethereum above 2100 on july 21 2026	3	$77	39	39	+0	No	+$0	07-21 06:37
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on July 2?	4	$77	38	38	+0	No	$0	07-02 07:00
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	4	$64	32	32	+0	No	+$0	05-17 01:50
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$64	32	32	+0	No	+$0	03-27 17:41
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 95m?	3	$63	32	32	+0	No	+$0	07-05 16:06
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 1?	5	$61	31	31	+0	No	$0	05-31 07:39
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15?	2	$59	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	05-15 18:01
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	$0	06-30 08:25
will ethereum dip to 1600 july 6 12 2026	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-12 15:47
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-30 00:29
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 19?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-19 17:43
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 27?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-26 19:40
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 4?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-04 05:03
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?	3	$57	28	28	+0	No	$0	06-29 10:18
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-03 07:32
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 79°F or below on July 17?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-16 19:17
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 12?	3	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-12 10:37
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 19, 2026?	4	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-19 22:39
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 108-109°F on June 29?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-28 16:29
ethereum above 1600 on july 11 2026	3	$56	28	28	+0	Yes	$0	07-10 22:05
Will Matt Rains be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-02 16:08
Will "The Last Ship: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	4	$55	28	28	+0	No	$0	06-30 17:36
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on July 2?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-01 17:42
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 1?	5	$55	27	27	+0	No	$0	06-01 08:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	5	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-10 20:23
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26?	3	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	06-26 04:00
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-30 23:23
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 23?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-23 10:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 13:45:53	Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8ab55e…
10-06 04:35:27	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xcfb4bf…
10-06 04:34:34	Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3ab6ff…
10-06 04:33:43	Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x515453…
10-06 04:32:54	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc76bae…
10-06 04:32:03	Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe8ca00…
10-06 04:31:10	Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7b683e…
10-04 13:06:11	Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x93ca19…
09-16 15:16:30	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7ca624…
09-12 18:46:15	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x13f487…
09-06 20:18:07	Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5195b9…
09-01 02:02:25	Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x187af8…
08-25 13:28:49	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd78e18…
08-08 11:41:15	Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7d51a9…
08-06 00:47:18	Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5dcc2d…
07-22 06:21:31	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 22?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xc77401…
07-22 06:13:22	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 22?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x099f4c…
07-22 06:13:18	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 22?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x05bb7a…
07-22 04:56:27	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 22?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x9d0763…
07-22 03:45:24	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 21 20260717052446994	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7ff5f1…
07-22 00:39:48	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xab04d4…
07-22 00:39:28	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x07c38d…
07-22 00:39:25	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbaa2f8…
07-22 00:39:24	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x1458eb…
07-21 23:53:01	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xc84ebd…
07-21 23:21:15	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on July 21?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf0213f…
07-21 23:13:04	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on July 21?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb274f4…
07-21 23:12:49	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on July 21?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x733952…
07-21 13:53:03	NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 21?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0xff8c43…
07-21 13:24:27	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or below on July 22?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x5249ac…
07-21 13:24:21	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or below on July 22?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xd3cfc0…
07-21 13:18:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 22?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc5c2a9…
07-21 13:17:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 21?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x9b93a1…
07-21 11:57:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 22?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xde0600…
07-21 11:50:06	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 21?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x1e497e…
07-21 11:43:01	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 21?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf3e38c…
07-21 11:42:48	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 21?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x39a5e4…
07-21 09:17:13	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or below on July 22?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x4e4bc1…
07-21 07:47:40	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on July 21?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x46229d…
07-21 07:21:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xfb6d2e…
07-21 06:37:03	ethereum above 2100 on july 21 2026	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x742328…
07-21 06:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 21?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2d6c81…
07-21 03:41:07	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on July 21?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xd4fcaa…
07-21 02:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 21?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf3056b…
07-21 01:02:39	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 21?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x300118…
07-20 23:45:54	bitcoin above 60k on july 21 2026	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xb66170…
07-20 22:22:45	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 21?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0b4b0e…
07-20 21:01:09	ethereum above 2100 on july 21 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x50ef83…
07-20 19:12:01	ethereum above 2100 on july 21 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe3630a…
07-20 18:17:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 21?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x37085a…
07-20 16:26:10	bitcoin above 60k on july 21 2026	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xc35845…
07-20 12:30:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 21?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x9a9892…
07-20 10:48:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x60c25d…
07-20 07:39:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 43°C on July 20?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6e817e…
07-20 07:38:22	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 20?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb757ec…
07-20 06:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 21?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x05e6b8…
07-20 04:50:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 43°C on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc47406…
07-20 02:29:30	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 20?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xeebcbd…
07-20 02:17:42	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x6232fa…
07-19 23:55:09	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x981ceb…
07-19 22:39:00	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 19, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x94d020…
07-19 21:24:06	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 19, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x6cb93f…
07-19 20:41:55	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 19, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xb609fa…
07-19 19:43:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 20?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x401f83…
07-19 19:42:52	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on July 20?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xff1c35…
07-19 18:40:52	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 19, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x4a6dde…
07-19 17:43:15	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 19?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x703083…
07-19 12:34:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 20?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe3113a…
07-19 11:22:22	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on July 20?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x7e8cda…
07-19 06:22:06	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 19?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x5c1e24…
07-19 05:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 19?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xdee4bd…
07-19 02:43:43	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 19?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc42de6…
07-19 01:44:09	Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x3642ad…
07-18 23:29:43	Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x51c537…
07-18 23:09:30	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on July 19?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xd4799d…
07-18 21:43:40	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on July 19?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfced1c…
07-17 20:24:10	will wti dip to 45 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6f7883…
07-17 17:28:21	will spy reach 785 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x9c13cb…
07-17 16:00:42	will ewy reach 187 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xe36eca…
07-17 15:47:12	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xdedd63…
07-17 13:09:15	will wti dip to 45 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xed65d9…
07-17 12:20:18	will spy reach 785 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf79aba…
07-17 12:01:16	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x4c7624…
07-17 09:02:25	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x377458…
07-17 08:13:51	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 17?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x0e7454…
07-17 08:06:36	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 18?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x567bda…
07-17 08:06:31	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 18?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x1d6f01…
07-17 08:06:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 18?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x0a0c2f…
07-17 07:45:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb7bbba…
07-17 07:45:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xa617b0…
07-17 07:45:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5d0742…
07-17 07:17:36	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 17?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x497995…
07-17 07:16:01	bitcoin above 68k on july 17 2026	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x9b27c3…
07-17 05:22:25	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 18?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc691dd…
07-17 04:57:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xa7bb2f…
07-17 02:11:45	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x852423…
07-17 01:21:04	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 17?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5f7917…
07-17 00:07:49	bitcoin above 68k on july 17 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x43c498…
07-16 22:23:01	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on July 17?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x74b45b…
07-16 21:39:19	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x06a87c…