Actual-Jaguar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$259

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

61.2%

Resolved

497

Trades

1,691

lifetime

Volume

$19.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$36

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 08-29 05:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 124 days

Categories

Other

65% 39% -$929

Politics

30% 50% +$671

Tech

4% 74% +$10

Crypto

1% 47% -$9

Sports

0% 71% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes		-37	-$29	98¢	$-36	-$7	05-19 05:09
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+0	$5	1¢	$0	-$5	06-23 08:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will mrbeast hit 520 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858518	19	$706	3,053	3,153	-100	No	-$663	07-20 01:40
will undertone opening weekend box office be between 9m and 10m	13	$706	366	471	-105	Yes	+$130	03-20 23:50
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?	11	$596	461	461	+0	Yes	+$247	06-12 22:04
will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	9	$410	317	317	+0	No	-$34	03-01 07:45
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	7	$407	317	347	-30	Yes	+$257	04-04 08:24
will mrbeasts latest video get 41 million or more views on week 1	6	$328	437	437	+0	Yes	+$271	02-28 04:47
will mrbeasts next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3	7	$299	277	277	+0	Yes	+$217	03-10 16:35
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	4	$270	191	191	+0	No	+$112	04-04 08:24
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	4	$270	18	257	-239	Yes	+$1	06-23 11:23
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	10	$257	414	255	+158	Yes	-$9	03-21 19:06
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$235	135	135	+0	No	+$35	04-04 08:25
will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 70m and 75m	10	$234	126	126	+0	No	+$14	03-21 19:05
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	15	$222	233	233	+0	Yes	+$42	03-07 17:03
will they will kill you opening weekend box office be less than 5m	7	$210	154	154	+0	Yes	-$28	03-29 16:18
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	2	$198	99	99	+0	Yes	+$0	03-12 01:03
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	4	$185	104	104	+0	Yes	+$24	03-29 15:38
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	2	$181	725	725	+0	Yes	+$81	05-15 21:57
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30?	6	$176	142	142	+0	Yes	+$16	05-19 14:59
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	4	$170	126	126	+0	No	+$70	03-13 00:44
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	2	$168	120	120	+0	Yes	+$71	06-26 22:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	4	$159	231	109	+122	Yes	+$134	05-08 19:12
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	4	$158	100	100	+0	No	+$37	04-14 15:45
will mrbeasts latest video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 4	7	$150	328	0	+328	No	-$150	04-07 15:06
will mrbeast hit 515 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858517	4	$148	300	300	+0	No	-$142	07-10 02:36
will the addams family be the top us netflix movie this week	9	$136	72	72	+0	No	+$7	03-03 20:58
will qatar strike iran by march 31	3	$136	83	76	+7	No	+$3	03-10 15:59
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	4	$127	256	28	+228	Yes	+$112	04-05 19:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	7	$126	125	28	+96	Yes	-$80	04-06 20:34
will mrbeasts next video get between 37pt5 and 38pt0 million views on day 5	3	$124	104	119	-15	Yes	+$99	02-26 16:41
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	2	$124	160	160	+0	No	-$20	04-09 22:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-29 05:06:09	Will MrBeast hit 140.5 billion views by August 31?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x7afb2d…
08-27 13:01:42	Will MrBeast hit 139.5 billion views by August 31?	Yes	BUY	184	0¢	$1	0x4941af…
08-25 18:58:51	Will MrBeast hit 140.5 billion views by August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x617b6b…
08-24 15:28:00	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	17,681	0¢	$18	0xf8ee94…
08-24 15:26:48	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	2,827	0¢	$3	0x912ed2…
08-24 15:25:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x82b19d…
08-24 15:25:34	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	71	2¢	$2	0x887874…
08-24 15:25:30	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	128	11¢	$14	0x544167…
08-24 13:31:16	Will MrBeast hit 140.5 billion views by August 31?	Yes	BUY	41	0¢	$0	0x85086c…
08-23 15:17:40	Will MrBeast hit 140.5 billion views by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xe14af2…
08-20 01:49:39	will mrbeast hit 141 billion views by august 31 20260731213821981	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf5e62f…
08-19 23:10:10	Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	No	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0xdb1479…
08-19 22:04:19	Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	No	BUY	23	10¢	$2	0xba12f5…
08-19 01:20:34	will bitcoin reach 65k in august 2026 from august 18	No	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x26caee…
08-18 00:06:51	will bitcoin reach 65k in august 2026 from august 10	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x8147f0…
08-17 23:46:51	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x95b965…
08-16 20:06:58	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$6	0x7c799c…
08-15 21:24:00	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?	Yes	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0x398b29…
08-13 13:51:03	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?	Yes	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x5ee948…
08-12 18:50:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x0bced4…
08-12 18:49:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x3d0efe…
08-12 09:24:52	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	14	58¢	$8	0x20db16…
08-04 22:40:27	Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x4eb26b…
08-04 20:36:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2372a2…
08-04 17:55:39	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	165	3¢	$5	0xa07d26…
08-04 14:20:21	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x8825b6…
08-03 12:00:18	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?	Yes	BUY	25	35¢	$9	0xc129ff…
08-03 09:34:51	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x84310c…
08-03 09:30:53	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xf5f6dd…
08-03 09:27:41	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?	Yes	BUY	63	39¢	$24	0xb2f1e1…
07-29 05:09:54	Will MrBeast hit 135 billion views by July 31?	No	SELL	395	0¢	$1	0xd81e80…
07-27 15:12:22	will mrbeast hit 135 billion views by july 31 20260623145506502	No	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x5d22be…
07-26 10:23:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	30	44¢	$13	0xb36492…
07-25 04:15:30	will mrbeast hit 512 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858516	Yes	SELL	107	2¢	$3	0x2f2c01…
07-23 23:40:33	will mrbeast hit 135pt5 billion views by july 31 20260623145506503	No	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0xc69c21…
07-23 23:08:40	will mrbeast hit 135pt5 billion views by july 31 20260623145506503	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xe94c48…
07-23 13:46:42	will mrbeast hit 135pt5 billion views by july 31 20260623145506503	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x877012…
07-23 02:38:58	will mrbeast hit 135pt5 billion views by july 31 20260623145506503	Yes	SELL	50	25¢	$12	0x21fda0…
07-20 08:18:45	will mrbeast hit 135 billion views by july 31 20260623145506502	Yes	SELL	25	60¢	$15	0x08f603…
07-20 01:40:00	will mrbeast hit 520 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858518	Yes	SELL	493	0¢	$0	0xe6857b…
07-19 18:12:01	will mrbeast hit 135 billion views by july 31 20260623145506502	No	BUY	38	15¢	$6	0x7e43a6…
07-19 18:10:30	will mrbeast hit 135 billion views by july 31 20260623145506502	Yes	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0xe3add8…
07-18 21:33:04	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0xbb9fbd…
07-18 21:33:04	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0x0c84ed…
07-18 21:31:00	will mrbeast hit 135pt5 billion views by july 31 20260623145506503	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x7d5733…
07-18 18:18:55	will mrbeast hit 520 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858518	Yes	SELL	335	0¢	$0	0x6b1cd7…
07-14 06:28:17	will mrbeast hit 512 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858516	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0x57b088…
07-14 04:22:20	will mrbeast hit 520 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858518	Yes	SELL	304	0¢	$2	0xaaf856…
07-14 03:49:53	will mrbeast hit 512 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858516	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xe77426…
07-13 21:19:58	will mrbeast hit 520 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858518	Yes	SELL	367	0¢	$2	0x8e4cca…
07-10 02:37:25	will mrbeast hit 512 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858516	Yes	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0x24906e…
07-10 02:36:50	will mrbeast hit 515 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858517	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$3	0x4551ed…
07-10 02:35:55	will mrbeast hit 520 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858518	Yes	SELL	1,605	0¢	$3	0x712f07…
07-06 06:22:17	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	61	32¢	$19	0x6f91e1…
07-04 03:50:04	Will MrBeast's next video get between 58.5 and 59.25 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0x281df8…
07-04 02:04:20	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0xd444d3…
07-04 02:04:20	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	111	4¢	$5	0x31e50f…
07-03 23:41:23	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	140	4¢	$6	0xd5bb72…
07-03 12:16:55	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$2	0x14094f…
07-03 03:59:29	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	1,105	3¢	$30	0x640255…
07-03 02:50:17	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x730e4c…
07-03 02:49:31	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	Yes	SELL	35	92¢	$32	0xdbece2…
07-02 16:38:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	877	2¢	$22	0x74a48b…
07-02 15:18:34	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xb60dd3…
07-02 15:16:05	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	353	0¢	$0	0xde0a6a…
07-02 14:54:35	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xd10b7e…
07-02 14:52:23	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	2,971	0¢	$3	0x262208…
07-02 14:51:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	40	68¢	$27	0xd2671b…
07-02 14:03:31	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	588	0¢	$3	0x5b2f09…
07-02 11:50:47	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xc360ab…
07-02 02:23:58	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	167	1¢	$1	0x754d4c…
07-01 22:17:10	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xcd53a6…
07-01 22:17:10	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x671fc3…
07-01 22:17:10	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	44	1¢	$0	0x3c8390…
07-01 15:11:56	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	215	1¢	$1	0xbb6a66…
06-29 22:00:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	69	0¢	$0	0xae5533…
06-29 22:00:22	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0xd7f55b…
06-29 22:00:22	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0xaa2c6c…
06-29 22:00:20	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	34	0¢	$0	0xae3b51…
06-29 21:23:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$0	0xf83fe3…
06-29 21:23:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xe56078…
06-29 21:23:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	125	0¢	$0	0xdb7ff7…
06-29 21:23:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x7cba42…
06-29 21:23:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x63afc6…
06-29 21:23:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0x46afb7…
06-29 20:52:08	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x9c1277…
06-29 07:20:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xeebb20…
06-29 07:20:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xc993e5…
06-29 07:20:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0xba771b…
06-29 07:20:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	97	7¢	$7	0xa02af3…
06-29 07:20:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x60ea1f…
06-29 05:19:29	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	33	7¢	$2	0x87167c…
06-28 15:35:46	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	No	SELL	111	0¢	$0	0x22066b…
06-27 22:08:11	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	11	32¢	$3	0x2487a1…
06-27 19:20:56	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	171	2¢	$3	0x5281d5…
06-27 18:44:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x7b5581…
06-27 18:41:13	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4a6cbd…
06-27 15:57:50	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x040f03…
06-27 11:42:32	will mrbeast hit 512 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858516	Yes	BUY	55	45¢	$25	0x785405…
06-27 05:11:13	will mrbeast hit 134pt5 billion views by july 31 20260623145506501	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xf1da89…