Mellow-Rationale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$25

Unrealized P&L

+$27

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$91

Open exposure

$397

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 06-15 01:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

46% 100% +$15

Tech

16% — —

Sports

16% 100% +$10

Politics

13% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	+230	$200	93¢	$214	+$14	05-30 13:26
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	+128	$100	84¢	$107	+$7	05-30 13:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+97	$70	78¢	$76	+$6	06-01 01:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	1	$429	435	0	+435	open	—	02-20 04:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$400	473	0	+473	open	—	06-15 00:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	1	$352	400	0	+400	open	—	05-12 23:01
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$292	320	0	+320	open	—	03-09 03:02
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$235	250	0	+250	Yes	+$15	03-08 18:15
will canada strike iran by march 31	1	$209	212	0	+212	open	—	03-01 23:07
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	1	$200	294	0	+294	open	—	02-08 23:02
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$200	208	0	+208	open	—	01-12 00:45
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	1	$200	230	0	+230	open	—	05-30 13:26
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	1	$200	205	0	+205	open	—	01-12 01:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	1	$190	200	0	+200	open	—	05-12 23:02
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 800k 271	2	$186	167	167	+0	open	—	02-15 21:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	1	$168	200	0	+200	open	—	05-12 23:02
will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	1	$150	181	0	+181	open	—	06-15 01:04
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$134	200	0	+200	open	—	02-11 21:53
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 7 million	3	$133	150	0	+150	open	—	02-15 22:53
ufc ram2 pun 2026 02 21	1	$100	189	0	+189	open	—	02-18 02:53
epl ars che 2026 03 01 ars	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	03-01 18:27
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	1	$100	128	0	+128	open	—	05-30 13:29
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	1	$100	145	0	+145	open	—	01-12 01:04
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	1	$100	179	0	+179	open	—	06-01 01:14
Sabres vs. Canadiens	1	$100	161	0	+161	open	—	05-16 22:54
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens	1	$100	217	0	+217	open	—	05-06 16:03
mwoh slo ger 2026 02 18	1	$100	213	0	+213	open	—	02-18 02:49
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	1	$100	132	0	+132	open	—	06-01 01:08
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	1	$100	118	0	+118	open	—	02-09 01:17
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 5 million	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	01-12 00:43
Sabres vs. Canadiens	2	$95	105	0	+105	Canadiens	+$10	05-11 00:47
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$80	100	0	+100	open	—	02-11 06:23
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$71	94	0	+94	open	—	01-12 01:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 01:06:42	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xa9a239…
06-15 01:04:06	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	181	83¢	$150	0x3e085a…
06-15 00:48:01	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	236	85¢	$200	0x396a1a…
06-15 00:30:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	237	84¢	$200	0x26b184…
06-01 01:14:39	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xb89508…
06-01 01:12:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	97	72¢	$70	0xa57999…
06-01 01:08:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x73e772…
05-30 13:29:19	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x336ddf…
05-30 13:26:42	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0x20f5bf…
05-30 13:25:16	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x3b9348…
05-30 13:24:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	Yes	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x69b147…
05-29 14:03:24	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Hurricanes	BUY	65	70¢	$46	0x4f3f80…
05-27 23:14:07	Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x1e861a…
05-24 00:22:16	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	138	36¢	$50	0xcf6af0…
05-16 22:54:07	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x329cc0…
05-12 23:02:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x8ffda5…
05-12 23:02:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xa0aede…
05-12 23:01:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	400	88¢	$352	0x50fb6d…
05-11 00:47:31	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	77	97¢	$75	0x661ced…
05-11 00:24:58	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x0c224f…
05-06 16:03:57	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens	Habs	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x359127…
03-11 03:30:27	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,132	6¢	$67	0x2cbe64…
03-09 03:02:35	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	220	92¢	$202	0xd1f546…
03-08 18:15:07	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	250	94¢	$235	0x934b48…
03-08 02:27:33	ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	Charles Oliveira	BUY	62	36¢	$22	0xfb9ced…
03-07 23:16:39	ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07 holloway win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	36	41¢	$15	0x96f6fb…
03-01 23:07:51	will canada strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	212	98¢	$209	0x32f949…
03-01 23:07:19	will france strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	55	80¢	$44	0xe97f5f…
03-01 18:27:19	epl ars che 2026 03 01 ars	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x4d615b…
03-01 14:16:43	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x30258f…
03-01 04:31:19	btc updown 5m 1772339400	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xea03bb…
02-24 18:28:28	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	111	58¢	$64	0x85e24b…
02-20 04:18:46	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	435	99¢	$429	0x874d5b…
02-20 04:15:00	btc updown 5m 1771560600	Down	BUY	18	62¢	$11	0xb5e952…
02-20 04:15:00	btc updown 5m 1771560600	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$2	0x3819d0…
02-20 04:08:32	btc updown 5m 1771560300	Up	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x9e5769…
02-18 02:53:06	ufc ram2 pun 2026 02 21	Ramiz Brahimaj	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x2f0e3c…
02-18 02:49:28	mwoh slo ger 2026 02 18	Slovakia	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x8d0f66…
02-15 22:53:23	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 7 million	Yes	BUY	118	89¢	$105	0x6d7a86…
02-15 21:52:11	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 7 million	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xd7424d…
02-15 21:32:27	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 7 million	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x44236d…
02-15 21:31:21	will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 800k 271	Yes	SELL	167	52¢	$86	0x73d4a5…
02-15 20:58:23	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 10 million	Yes	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x80750b…
02-11 21:53:55	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x100b87…
02-11 06:23:23	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xb4df12…
02-09 02:03:21	btc updown 15m 1770602400	Down	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xb36d06…
02-09 01:17:53	will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x8bf057…
02-09 01:17:23	will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x10cc43…
02-09 01:15:51	will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x646cfb…
02-08 23:36:13	btc updown 15m 1770593400	Down	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x11fb27…
02-08 23:25:47	super bowl lx coin toss	Tails	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x513363…
02-08 23:19:39	will the gatorade shower at super bowl lx be greenyellow	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x85322c…
02-08 23:07:53	will anthropic run an ad during super bowl lx	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6e19b0…
02-08 23:04:37	will tit me pregunt be played first at the super bowl halftime show	Yes	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x62cafa…
02-08 23:02:01	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Seahawks	BUY	294	68¢	$200	0x1cc1c9…
01-12 01:05:22	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	94	76¢	$71	0xba355b…
01-12 01:04:26	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xdd2749…
01-12 01:03:02	new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	No	BUY	205	97¢	$200	0x2291a3…
01-12 01:02:14	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 8 million	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xfa8886…
01-12 00:58:36	will gnx kendrick lamar win best rap album at the 68th annual grammy awards	Yes	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x836254…
01-12 00:50:08	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x3a166f…
01-12 00:45:56	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0x74dc65…
01-12 00:43:22	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 5 million	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x58b215…
01-12 00:40:10	will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 800k 271	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x7c0e75…