Annual-Chauvinist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$47.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.08K

Hit rate

53.2%

Resolved

Trades

465

lifetime

Volume

$527.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.13K

Open exposure

$37.8K

7 positions

First seen

2026-02-24

last 11-04 14:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

88% 71% -$48,642

Other

10% 83% +$22

Tech

1% 100% +$645

Crypto

0% 67% +$149

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	+20,457	$19,465	98¢	$20.0K	+$511	10-31 04:31
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+11,600	$10,092	87¢	$10.1K	+$46	11-04 14:07
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,676	$3,020	94¢	$3.4K	+$418	11-02 02:26
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+2,804	$2,697	96¢	$2.7K	-$9	10-30 15:41
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	+1,083	$1,035	99¢	$1.1K	+$34	11-02 23:48
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+1,412	$158	17¢	$235	+$77	11-04 05:18
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+267	$218	82¢	$218	+$0	11-04 04:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	56	$117.7K	86,948	86,948	+0	Yes	-$15,837	06-13 17:29
Trump out as President by June 30?	264	$107.4K	34,915	74,891	-39,976	No	+$471	06-05 09:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$73.1K	91,926	0	+91,926	No	+$18,786	05-28 16:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$61.5K	53,178	13,000	+40,178	Yes	-$38,648	06-14 13:47
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	3	$32.8K	17,435	17,435	+0	No	+$1,239	10-25 17:04
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	2	$25.5K	13,718	13,444	+274	No	-$216	09-21 07:33
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	56	$19.5K	20,457	0	+20,457	open	—	10-31 04:31
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$19.3K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$144	06-05 09:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	11	$15.4K	16,088	0	+16,088	Yes	-$15,445	05-06 18:50
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$10.1K	11,600	0	+11,600	open	—	11-04 14:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$10.0K	10,526	0	+10,526	No	+$526	05-26 08:42
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	17	$9.6K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$99	05-16 06:35
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	2	$5.0K	5,640	0	+5,640	Yes	+$637	06-12 13:50
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$4.5K	2,796	2,796	+0	No	+$163	06-05 09:56
France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?	1	$4.2K	4,252	0	+4,252	No	+$79	10-20 05:23
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	3	$3.0K	3,676	0	+3,676	open	—	11-02 02:26
Trump out as President before 2027?	1	$2.7K	2,804	0	+2,804	open	—	10-30 15:41
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	7	$1.0K	1,083	0	+1,083	open	—	11-02 23:48
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	1	$964	990	0	+990	Yes	+$26	10-20 04:41
will jd vance clap between 9099 times during the state of the union	1	$900	1,030	0	+1,030	No	+$130	02-24 23:35
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	1	$737	748	0	+748	No	+$10	10-30 15:36
will nancy pelosi attend the 2026 state of the union address	1	$500	518	0	+518	Yes	+$18	02-24 23:57
will trump say israel or gaza during the 2026 state of the union address 833	1	$500	532	0	+532	Yes	+$32	02-25 00:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	4	$400	507	0	+507	Up	+$107	10-30 12:03
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?	1	$373	382	0	+382	Yes	+$8	06-11 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	3	$300	447	0	+447	Up	+$147	11-02 13:41
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$218	267	0	+267	open	—	11-04 04:23
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$158	1,412	0	+1,412	open	—	11-04 05:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	2	$105	253	0	+253	Up	-$105	10-20 09:16
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	04-29 00:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 14:07:51	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	11,600	87¢	$10,092	0x0365da…
11-04 05:18:42	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$109	0x0a92d2…
11-04 05:11:49	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	199	12¢	$24	0x0b0c16…
11-04 04:26:58	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	213	12¢	$26	0xd9bd82…
11-04 04:23:36	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0xe05bc3…
11-04 04:22:51	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	227	81¢	$185	0xfda6c7…
11-02 23:48:03	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xc7ce83…
11-02 23:47:54	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xd0897c…
11-02 23:47:46	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	65	95¢	$62	0x993311…
11-02 23:47:33	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	104	95¢	$99	0xa57769…
11-02 13:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x1a52d9…
11-02 13:41:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xb60e95…
11-02 13:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x7d1f18…
11-02 02:26:48	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	92¢	$44	0xb172a7…
11-02 02:26:10	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xda84cc…
10-31 04:31:24	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	135	96¢	$130	0xc17c58…
10-31 04:19:40	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x75a43c…
10-31 04:13:57	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x786565…
10-31 04:13:45	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	270	96¢	$260	0x9671ec…
10-31 03:58:00	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x60ba9a…
10-31 03:54:00	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xf4e1ee…
10-31 03:45:30	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x6cffb7…
10-31 03:40:06	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xd5aa6c…
10-31 03:37:31	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x324a8d…
10-31 03:25:36	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x83c15d…
10-31 03:25:09	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x44d419…
10-31 03:19:52	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x59096c…
10-31 03:16:54	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x70a31e…
10-31 03:11:22	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xf8f250…
10-31 03:09:42	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xe83c62…
10-31 03:08:00	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x7faf36…
10-31 03:02:48	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x9d5202…
10-31 02:44:16	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xc7f881…
10-31 02:41:37	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x2df4b6…
10-31 02:38:15	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x191945…
10-31 02:37:30	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x80e066…
10-31 02:28:27	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x4e38c1…
10-31 02:27:48	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x00ab09…
10-31 02:26:07	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xdba2e5…
10-31 02:18:43	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x4c6aa5…
10-31 02:18:34	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x1e09fa…
10-31 02:07:09	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x3f914c…
10-31 02:07:01	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x740a0b…
10-31 01:59:55	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xeb9215…
10-31 01:57:10	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x838f91…
10-31 01:54:40	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x8b3dff…
10-31 01:15:34	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x591190…
10-31 00:39:48	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x158e0e…
10-31 00:37:24	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xd1c902…
10-31 00:34:45	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x8eb935…
10-31 00:33:21	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x2380de…
10-31 00:27:43	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x9d73be…
10-31 00:17:37	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xb784e8…
10-31 00:15:30	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x1c0c31…
10-30 23:59:12	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x1754c2…
10-30 23:57:21	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x9db4ef…
10-30 23:48:28	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x3fe562…
10-30 23:32:03	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x80dc02…
10-30 22:02:07	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xa8406e…
10-30 20:29:04	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	229	96¢	$221	0x6207b4…
10-30 15:42:07	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,742	96¢	$1,678	0xfa3a0f…
10-30 15:41:40	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,291	96¢	$1,242	0x787f02…
10-30 15:41:03	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	2,804	96¢	$2,697	0x241d1e…
10-30 15:36:27	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	748	99¢	$737	0x569dd6…
10-30 12:04:24	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	316	96¢	$303	0xb0ccca…
10-30 12:04:18	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,076	96¢	$1,031	0x0b16b6…
10-30 12:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x965b81…
10-30 12:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x55aba0…
10-30 12:03:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xdbbdf5…
10-30 12:03:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x9b7f07…
10-26 13:08:02	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	56	95¢	$53	0x9d6bf2…
10-26 12:36:56	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	444	95¢	$420	0x1e53ed…
10-26 10:48:06	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	334	97¢	$324	0x4e7ed7…
10-26 03:17:53	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,193	96¢	$3,081	0xb3c265…
10-25 17:04:30	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17,435	98¢	$17,008	0x09522f…
10-20 09:16:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0x8d7f50…
10-20 09:16:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x8d3647…
10-20 05:23:50	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,574	82¢	$2,926	0x992ef8…
10-20 05:23:14	France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	4,252	98¢	$4,173	0x633ece…
10-20 05:17:02	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,105	94¢	$1,979	0xf5a1f6…
10-20 05:13:51	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0x7a5cf2…
10-20 05:11:57	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	190	94¢	$179	0xe402f4…
10-20 04:41:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	990	97¢	$964	0xe9a81d…
10-20 04:05:44	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,648	94¢	$1,549	0x7c63e3…
10-20 03:47:20	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x7bf8b9…
10-20 03:45:14	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7,898	94¢	$7,463	0x6c949c…
10-20 00:03:36	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11,579	93¢	$10,769	0x609969…
09-21 07:33:45	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	No	SELL	13,444	93¢	$12,510	0xe99218…
09-19 07:55:22	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,856	85¢	$5,000	0x99abca…
09-18 11:58:16	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	No	BUY	13,718	95¢	$13,000	0x09dc95…
06-14 13:47:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	7,231	88¢	$6,378	0x706411…
06-14 13:47:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	2,769	88¢	$2,442	0xcfacce…
06-14 13:43:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	3,000	87¢	$2,602	0x9a5917…
06-13 17:29:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4,826	40¢	$1,931	0x96ca5f…
06-12 13:50:12	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	BUY	604	89¢	$537	0x81c9e4…
06-12 13:47:54	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	BUY	5,036	89¢	$4,466	0xb74666…
06-12 10:51:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32,122	60¢	$19,174	0x7473bd…
06-12 03:33:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	4,985	89¢	$4,422	0x17929b…
06-12 03:32:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5,237	89¢	$4,645	0x455af4…
06-12 03:30:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36,949	68¢	$25,290	0x70286d…