Constant-Volcano — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

82.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,158

lifetime

Volume

$1.73K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 07-21 18:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

82% 79% +$0

Crypto

18% 82% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27?	8	$27	16	16	+0	open	—	04-27 13:42
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	11	$27	24	29	-6	Down	+$0	05-12 13:31
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	11	$24	29	25	+4	open	—	05-18 19:37
spx opens up or down on april 21 2026	9	$23	12	12	+0	open	—	04-21 14:45
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 5?	10	$21	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 20:02
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 1?	3	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	05-01 15:51
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	9	$19	21	8	+13	Up	$-0	05-04 20:01
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 19?	12	$19	22	22	+0	open	—	05-19 19:15
spx opens up or down on april 17 2026	4	$17	9	9	+0	open	—	04-17 13:21
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	6	$17	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 14:23
will bitcoin reach 63k on july 3	12	$16	34	34	+0	open	—	07-03 21:01
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 30?	3	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	04-30 21:18
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 5?	6	$15	12	12	+0	Down	$-1	05-05 20:01
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30?	3	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	04-30 13:33
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	5	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$0	05-08 13:58
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13?	8	$13	11	11	+0	Down	$-1	05-13 20:30
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	5	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$1	05-04 13:38
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	4	$12	8	8	+0	Down	+$0	05-11 13:44
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 13?	4	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	05-13 20:52
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 1?	3	$12	12	2	+10	open	—	05-01 20:59
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29?	4	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	04-29 13:43
spx opens up or down on april 15 2026	8	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	04-15 13:50
bitcoin above 64k on june 4 2026	10	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	06-04 16:01
zelenskyy of tweets april 7 april 14 2026 40 59	4	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	04-13 19:31
will bitcoin reach 64k on july 6	10	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	07-06 20:30
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-30 20:05
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	3	$10	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	05-06 09:02
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-01 20:07
spx opens up or down on april 20 2026	4	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-20 13:30
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 27?	5	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-27 21:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 20:05:36	nvda close above 210 on july 21 2026	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xee9605…
07-21 20:00:46	spy closes above 745 on july 21 2026	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8eaf7d…
07-21 20:00:37	amzn up or down on july 21 2026	Down	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa75660…
07-21 19:19:31	nvda close above 210 on july 21 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x3a728e…
07-21 19:05:31	nvda close above 210 on july 21 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xfa5547…
07-21 19:03:39	nvda close above 210 on july 21 2026	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x44576c…
07-21 18:56:15	amzn up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5a4028…
07-21 18:54:51	spy closes above 745 on july 21 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3f6cbd…
07-21 15:32:46	aapl up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	2	70¢	$2	0xa4d0ee…
07-21 14:33:40	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 21	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xff7428…
07-21 14:28:43	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 21	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xfead99…
07-21 07:48:22	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 21	Yes	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0xd877b7…
07-21 07:29:46	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 21	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x22596a…
07-20 21:04:31	xauusd up or down on july 20 2026	Down	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x33a630…
07-20 21:04:24	xagusd up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb2acf0…
07-20 20:54:54	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 20	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb040b7…
07-20 20:51:34	xauusd up or down on july 20 2026	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x76c5e0…
07-20 20:11:25	xagusd up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeedd41…
07-20 20:05:01	spy closes above 740 on july 20 2026	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x170185…
07-20 19:57:21	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x778813…
07-20 19:52:58	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x90a183…
07-20 19:43:19	spy closes above 740 on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3f91d4…
07-20 08:38:31	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 20	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xab0510…
07-20 08:36:58	aapl up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x380aaa…
07-17 20:46:40	will aapl reach 336 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x2170b3…
07-17 13:44:03	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 17	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7dded3…
07-16 15:27:11	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 16	Yes	SELL	3	84¢	$2	0x4f4d43…
07-16 15:26:02	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 16	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x536e95…
07-16 14:36:20	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 16	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x04ef37…
07-16 14:18:49	aapl up or down on july 16 2026	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x532aa3…
07-16 12:46:10	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 16	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xcb3e63…
07-16 09:23:35	spy up or down on july 16 2026	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xf47e7e…
07-16 08:27:20	spy up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd699d5…
07-16 08:26:05	nvda up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xefbd3a…
07-16 08:25:23	aapl up or down on july 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x78ed0d…
07-15 21:14:28	rut up or down on july 15 2026	Up	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd60dd2…
07-15 21:01:46	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x8e1878…
07-15 21:00:19	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x9015b8…
07-15 20:18:08	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x7f70b1…
07-15 19:03:01	rut up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xd5d5b7…
07-15 18:04:44	spy up or down on july 15 2026	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa4a8e9…
07-15 12:53:08	spx opens up or down on july 15 2026	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7139fb…
07-15 09:04:22	aapl up or down on july 15 2026	Up	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x4af448…
07-15 08:08:11	aapl up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x399785…
07-15 07:16:25	spx opens up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x16e0dc…
07-15 07:08:02	spy up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xbeb2ce…
07-14 21:45:41	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	Yes	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x18d474…
07-14 21:14:01	wti closes above 74 on july 14 2026	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0c21db…
07-14 20:03:46	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x59003a…
07-14 18:00:29	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x0b4328…
07-14 17:55:25	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x73890d…
07-14 17:11:52	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x224aaf…
07-14 15:37:56	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x47f5fa…
07-14 15:32:04	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xf728d7…
07-14 15:02:26	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x0abb24…
07-14 14:40:43	aapl up or down on july 14 2026	Up	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x0f920f…
07-14 13:02:13	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x336212…
07-14 12:52:23	will bitcoin reach 64k on july 14	Yes	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0x8ca644…
07-14 12:46:07	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x948fa1…
07-14 12:33:19	will bitcoin reach 64k on july 14	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x05915a…
07-14 12:27:50	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb1a871…
07-14 12:26:32	will bitcoin reach 63k on july 14	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x241288…
07-14 11:01:40	will bitcoin reach 63k on july 14	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x0fc1d3…
07-14 08:10:38	aapl up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x57d8f2…
07-14 08:07:37	wti closes above 74 on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc853d8…
07-14 08:01:55	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb51fa7…
07-14 07:15:20	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe05f8b…
07-13 21:08:43	wti closes above 76 on july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xaf2cd5…
07-13 19:34:23	wti closes above 76 on july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xb30457…
07-13 19:16:32	will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 13	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x64bfa4…
07-13 19:12:20	wti closes above 76 on july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xbc0650…
07-13 12:43:59	spx opens up or down on july 13 2026	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8712d4…
07-13 10:43:16	spx opens up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8b06c1…
07-13 07:28:59	will bitcoin reach 63k on july 13	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x59e062…
07-13 07:21:08	will bitcoin reach 63k on july 13	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x9a4374…
07-13 07:13:08	spx opens up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xe94acd…
07-13 07:11:07	wti closes above 77 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc34451…
07-10 19:33:20	aapl up or down on july 10 2026	Up	SELL	1	63¢	$0	0xdb2f86…
07-10 19:32:34	aapl up or down on july 10 2026	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xfdcb3b…
07-10 12:13:58	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 10	Yes	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x191caf…
07-10 08:41:44	aapl up or down on july 10 2026	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3a6f0d…
07-10 08:39:38	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 10	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4d9ff0…
07-10 01:48:43	will bitcoin reach 64k on july 9	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0x4b2d85…
07-09 21:05:35	will bitcoin reach 64k on july 9	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x01c9ae…
07-09 21:00:55	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcd4fc5…
07-09 20:15:28	wti closes above 72 on july 9 2026	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xad4437…
07-09 20:13:40	wti closes above 77 on july 9 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb3f581…
07-09 15:22:43	aapl up or down on july 9 2026	Up	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x3a7cc4…
07-09 14:35:58	wti closes above 77 on july 9 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd14903…
07-09 14:09:16	spy up or down on july 9 2026	Up	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xa42c9b…
07-09 12:06:55	aapl up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xea1f3d…
07-09 12:05:20	spy up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x752d3c…
07-08 16:08:50	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2f466b…
07-08 09:18:05	will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 8	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xcb7a24…
07-08 08:42:05	will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 8	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x323cc4…
07-07 15:52:29	will bitcoin reach 64k on july 7	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7d6ae8…
07-07 15:45:35	aapl up or down on july 7 2026	Up	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0x1374ec…
07-07 15:42:16	will bitcoin reach 64k on july 7	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xfe72ac…
07-07 15:40:02	aapl up or down on july 7 2026	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xcd8eba…
07-07 08:24:49	aapl up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x8dc6f4…