Realized P&L
-$63
Unrealized P&L
+$19
Hit rate
62.3%
Resolved
155
Trades
404
lifetime
Volume
$1.53K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$215
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-09
last 10-23 23:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 47 days
Categories
Politics
51% 62% -$58
Other
23% 56% +$3
Sports
18% 82% -$1
Tech
7% 50% +$5
Crypto
1% 33% -$12
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
3 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -34 -$33 97¢ $-33 -$1 10-23 23:22
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No +23 $22 96¢ $22 +$0 07-29 13:27
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +23 $21 94¢ $21 +$0 10-23 23:28
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No +13 -$3 100¢ $13 +$16 10-23 23:27
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +13 $9 94¢ $12 +$3 07-29 13:24
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No +11 $6 93¢ $10 +$4 05-07 02:45
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +11 $10 88¢ $10 $0 07-29 18:59
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +16 $10 62¢ $10 $0 05-21 00:30
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No +10 $7 84¢ $8 +$1 07-29 13:25
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +10 $6 70¢ $7 +$1 10-23 23:28
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +7 $5 83¢ $6 +$1 05-21 00:25
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? No -6 -$5 92¢ $-6 -$1 08-31 21:30
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +6 $5 99¢ $6 +$1 08-31 21:40
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 07-29 19:00
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 $0 10-23 23:28
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +4 $4 98¢ $4 +$0 07-29 13:14
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +4 $1 98¢ $4 +$3 07-29 13:14
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +122 $8 3¢ $4 -$4 05-21 00:28
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -3 -$3 99¢ $-3 $0 05-21 00:26
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? No +3 $3 94¢ $3 +$0 05-07 02:37
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +3 $3 96¢ $3 +$0 05-21 00:28
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No +24 $5 11¢ $3 -$2 10-23 23:27
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No +3 $2 93¢ $2 +$0 05-21 00:44
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes +35 $6 6¢ $2 -$4 05-07 02:39
Kash Patel out by December 31? No +3 $1 82¢ $2 +$1 04-30 01:32
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes -5 -$2 42¢ $-2 $0 05-06 17:33
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +2 $2 91¢ $2 +$0 07-29 18:59
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +2 $2 81¢ $2 +$0 07-29 18:59
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +12 $2 15¢ $2 $0 08-31 21:26
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -13 -$1 14¢ $-2 -$1 07-29 13:26