Winged-Mathematics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.53K

Unrealized P&L

-$32

Hit rate

53.5%

Resolved

5,204

Trades

22,709

lifetime

Volume

$129.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$84

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 11-02 17:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 186 days

Categories

Crypto

43% 60% -$609

Other

30% 37% -$1,084

Politics

21% 36% -$413

Sports

4% 36% -$367

Tech

2% 45% -$59

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	+84	$57	92¢	$76	+$20	06-27 01:07
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	+84	$43	8¢	$7	-$36	06-27 22:42
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+0	$8	11¢	$0	-$8	08-23 14:20
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+0	$8	2¢	$0	-$8	08-27 12:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	13	$3.1K	2,400	2,400	+0	Yes	-$29	07-31 09:33
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	46	$2.2K	3,909	3,909	+0	open	—	08-27 12:56
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	26	$2.1K	1,320	1,320	+0	No	+$6	07-10 09:12
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	24	$1.4K	1,492	1,492	+0	Yes	-$158	07-15 13:12
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	34	$1.4K	1,107	1,107	+0	No	+$33	07-24 00:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	5	$1.3K	916	916	+0	open	—	07-30 10:48
cs2 9z prv 2026 07 12	10	$1.3K	1,250	1,250	+0	9z	+$10	07-12 09:07
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	18	$1.2K	1,393	1,393	+0	No	+$15	07-23 16:09
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 corners total 9pt5	3	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	+$50	07-06 23:57
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	8	$1.0K	1,403	1,403	+0	Yes	+$14	07-30 01:39
fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 first half total 2pt5	3	$1.0K	588	588	+0	Under	+$6	07-02 04:10
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 corners total 8pt5	2	$1000	877	877	+0	Over	+$0	07-19 19:03
Fed rate hike in 2026?	8	$997	1,423	1,423	+0	Yes	-$38	07-14 05:45
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	8	$990	1,011	1,011	+0	open	—	07-28 01:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	5	$985	738	738	+0	open	—	07-24 16:07
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	2	$979	535	535	+0	No	+$1	07-08 16:12
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	4	$950	569	569	+0	Yes	-$34	07-07 23:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$948	588	588	+0	Yes	-$3	07-24 10:49
us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	3	$943	512	512	+0	No	-$10	07-14 12:01
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	2	$939	497	497	+0	No	+$5	07-16 23:46
val geng rrq1 2026 07 26	6	$937	743	743	+0	Gen.G Esports	+$0	07-26 11:45
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$918	820	820	+0	Yes	-$82	07-11 21:40
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	5	$898	1,139	1,139	+0	Yes	+$11	07-26 16:51
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	3	$857	507	507	+0	No	+$5	07-26 08:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$854	832	832	+0	No	-$33	06-20 01:53
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	4	$795	455	455	+0	No	+$7	07-22 06:39
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	5	$790	926	926	+0	No	-$6	07-24 20:00
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	5	$758	543	543	+0	No	+$14	07-16 23:48
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	4	$725	391	391	+0	No	+$21	06-28 14:41
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 corners total 8pt5	3	$718	541	541	+0	Under	+$134	07-12 02:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 17:21:31	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x44b341…
11-02 17:21:09	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xb9beec…
11-02 17:21:04	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	59	0¢	$0	0xa07a72…
11-02 17:19:54	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0x989238…
11-02 17:16:58	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	38,891	0¢	$39	0x472e7e…
11-02 17:10:34	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	99,930	0¢	$100	0xbc03ae…
11-02 17:09:42	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xdb37af…
11-02 17:09:40	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	380	0¢	$1	0xf4b89e…
11-02 17:08:09	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	186	0¢	$1	0x2c2155…
11-02 17:08:07	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	39,434	0¢	$118	0x0e8b15…
11-02 17:02:52	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x90a232…
11-02 17:02:52	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x31d5cb…
11-02 17:02:34	Ethereum Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	20,913	0¢	$21	0x61163b…
10-12 16:10:17	Ethereum Up or Down on October 12?	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x685ca1…
10-06 20:36:39	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x68974d…
09-18 00:33:22	Will Nkosindiphile Xhakaza be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?	Yes	SELL	41	4¢	$1	0x16b795…
09-14 20:36:36	Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections?	No	SELL	43	3¢	$1	0x63d499…
09-01 11:09:06	Will the Democratic Party win the AL-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	139	2¢	$2	0x696917…
08-30 18:54:48	Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections?	No	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x5c02fd…
08-30 11:17:55	Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections?	No	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xbad8b2…
08-29 10:42:42	Will Braeden Caley win the 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano by-election?	No	SELL	51	2¢	$1	0x0477c7…
08-29 10:41:36	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x9ab176…
08-29 10:41:21	Will Tito-Dante Marimpietri win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?	No	SELL	35	16¢	$6	0x441d20…
08-29 10:40:54	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	No	SELL	35	26¢	$9	0x533259…
08-29 10:40:36	Will Team Liquid Win the Shortest Game in LCS 2026 Summer Split?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0x14dbcc…
08-29 10:40:15	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 15 2026	No	SELL	48	14¢	$7	0x95f422…
08-29 10:40:03	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	Yes	SELL	30	67¢	$20	0x724873…
08-29 10:39:51	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	SELL	32	62¢	$20	0xb77fa3…
08-29 09:50:21	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	Yes	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xfa8959…
08-29 09:50:00	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	Yes	BUY	40	69¢	$27	0x617709…
08-29 04:47:57	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	35	33¢	$12	0xa90854…
08-28 23:30:39	Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x8853d2…
08-28 21:50:27	Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?	No	SELL	7	52¢	$3	0x01c166…
08-28 21:50:25	Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?	No	SELL	3	52¢	$1	0x812369…
08-28 21:50:25	Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?	No	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0x5fd13a…
08-28 16:15:07	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-28 16:00 UTC	Up	SELL	33	30¢	$10	0x67e025…
08-28 16:14:58	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-28 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	58	32¢	$18	0x5df99a…
08-28 16:08:01	Will Sílvia Cristina win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	SELL	43	37¢	$16	0xec31a4…
08-28 14:07:09	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0x6e7d8f…
08-28 11:45:25	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	24¢	$11	0x9497a7…
08-28 08:19:09	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 15 2026	No	BUY	48	53¢	$25	0x2ffd59…
08-28 08:18:36	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	32	83¢	$26	0xb2614b…
08-27 20:37:43	Will Gen.G Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	22¢	$10	0x25dd3e…
08-27 17:59:09	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x318fc0…
08-27 17:59:07	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0x31de25…
08-27 16:30:46	Will Eduardo Braga win the most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	No	SELL	26	27¢	$7	0xba99a6…
08-27 13:30:18	Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?	No	BUY	37	57¢	$21	0xb35e05…
08-27 12:56:16	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	14¢	$16	0x3cab9b…
08-27 12:52:06	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xf3c60f…
08-27 12:35:51	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x28c092…
08-27 11:52:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	130	14¢	$18	0x8f2281…
08-27 11:29:42	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	14¢	$3	0xe0c2ee…
08-27 11:29:37	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	334	14¢	$47	0xfcd099…
08-27 08:53:54	Will Tito-Dante Marimpietri win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?	No	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x890f7d…
08-26 12:37:16	Will Gen.G Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	33¢	$15	0x9da1aa…
08-25 23:49:33	Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xdda2dc…
08-25 21:21:58	Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	24	60¢	$15	0x172f32…
08-25 21:21:49	Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	24	64¢	$16	0x720913…
08-25 09:42:42	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0xf3b851…
08-25 05:14:57	Will Estral Esports Win Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 2	Yes	SELL	25	65¢	$16	0x6d79e2…
08-25 05:14:49	Will Estral Esports Win Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 2	Yes	BUY	52	68¢	$35	0xe3b83c…
08-25 02:47:49	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	32	54¢	$17	0xc5d881…
08-25 01:08:34	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	BUY	34	27¢	$9	0x6929fe…
08-24 22:23:16	Will Eduardo Braga win the most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	No	BUY	26	26¢	$7	0xfaf1e5…
08-24 02:11:13	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	32	48¢	$16	0xe3a283…
08-23 22:56:57	Will Sílvia Cristina win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	43	34¢	$15	0x9c54fb…
08-23 21:14:10	Will Caedrel Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?	Yes	SELL	23	26¢	$6	0x54bf4d…
08-23 19:45:10	Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?	Yes	BUY	71	64¢	$45	0x41b1fe…
08-23 17:07:10	Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x4f2160…
08-23 14:20:07	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	115	22¢	$25	0xc4aa04…
08-23 14:19:54	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	23	22¢	$5	0x876653…
08-23 14:19:52	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	99	22¢	$21	0x887c76…
08-23 14:10:18	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0x16e56a…
08-23 10:34:03	Will Caedrel Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?	Yes	BUY	23	31¢	$7	0xa38d40…
08-23 09:05:06	Will Nkosindiphile Xhakaza be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?	Yes	BUY	41	39¢	$16	0xc83594…
08-23 06:14:42	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	239	25¢	$60	0x1f94da…
08-23 01:09:46	Will Team Liquid Win the Shortest Game in LCS 2026 Summer Split?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x50c0e9…
08-22 23:43:13	Will the Democratic Party win the AL-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	139	2¢	$3	0xee22bc…
08-22 16:36:18	will deepseek be added to the chinese military companies list by june 30 2027 20260706225129415	No	SELL	34	70¢	$23	0xea4c23…
08-22 09:35:04	Will Salihu Danladi win the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	25	54¢	$14	0x509221…
08-22 09:34:15	Will Salihu Danladi win the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x4d4048…
08-21 21:48:37	Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	SELL	55	6¢	$3	0xb2a119…
08-21 10:47:01	skin cancer vaccine fda approved by december 31 2027	No	SELL	28	32¢	$9	0x96ffac…
08-21 10:46:40	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	No	SELL	7	51¢	$3	0x19769c…
08-21 10:46:22	Will Jahmyr Gibbs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage touchdowns?	No	SELL	22	82¢	$18	0xd47b76…
08-20 20:56:58	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x6cf205…
08-20 13:32:06	Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	99	65¢	$64	0x25b2d5…
08-20 07:42:16	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x8d3b36…
08-20 07:07:10	Will Paper Rex Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026?	No	SELL	11	59¢	$6	0x32fb68…
08-20 05:22:55	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	77	16¢	$12	0x5eec6f…
08-20 05:18:57	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x0e7b43…
08-20 04:06:12	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?	No	BUY	77	29¢	$22	0x35b0e5…
08-20 02:08:07	Will Team Vitality Win the Shortest Game in LEC 2026 Summer Split?	Yes	SELL	42	70¢	$29	0x875a26…
08-19 20:35:45	skin cancer vaccine fda approved by december 31 2027	No	BUY	28	52¢	$14	0x3cb519…
08-19 20:04:36	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-19 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	51	48¢	$25	0x332bc4…
08-19 17:25:28	Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0x5664f2…
08-19 12:47:28	Will Team Vitality Win the Shortest Game in LEC 2026 Summer Split?	Yes	BUY	42	75¢	$31	0xe63ed9…
08-19 12:31:43	Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	38	13¢	$5	0x631558…
08-19 12:31:07	Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	23	21¢	$5	0x1e231e…
08-19 12:30:39	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	48¢	$3	0x560e8d…