Lone-Thorn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$109

Open exposure

$568

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-14 13:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

80% 100% +$13

Other

20% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	-180	$-178	99¢	$-178	$-0	05-14 13:00
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	+103	$100	96¢	$99	$-1	05-14 12:59
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	+91	$78	85¢	$77	$-1	05-14 13:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	+75	$74	100¢	$75	+$2	05-06 02:44
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	+66	$58	90¢	$59	+$1	05-14 12:50
Will Trump post "Brazil" on Truth Social this week?	No	+58	$50	79¢	$46	$-4	05-11 13:37
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	No	+34	$33	98¢	$33	$-0	05-14 05:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 13:00:57	Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	91	86¢	$78	0xc02e2f…
05-14 13:00:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$178	0x6978c9…
05-14 12:59:19	Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xe2857f…
05-14 12:50:41	Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	66	88¢	$58	0xc22d80…
05-14 12:49:16	Will Trump Leave China on May 16?	No	SELL	190	99¢	$188	0xdaa7d1…
05-14 12:47:36	Will Trump Leave China on May 16?	No	SELL	129	99¢	$128	0x89a0bd…
05-14 05:26:25	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0x0dd1c3…
05-13 04:11:22	Will King Charles say "House / Housing" during State Opening?	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x1a654c…
05-13 04:01:28	Will King Charles's remarks not air?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x6df2cc…
05-12 03:18:10	Will Trump Leave China on May 16?	No	BUY	319	97¢	$309	0x995bd9…
05-11 21:31:32	Will any CEO of a publicly-listed US company attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x50a97f…
05-11 21:31:25	Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xec328b…
05-11 13:37:31	Will Trump post "Brazil" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xaf470d…
05-10 05:23:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	235	96¢	$226	0x7ef2e8…
05-06 23:50:38	Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during events with Brazilian president?	No	BUY	85	97¢	$82	0x64c30b…
05-06 19:50:04	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x3254eb…
05-06 02:44:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	75	97¢	$74	0x8c3674…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92	4	$21.4K	96	05-12 11:12
Colossal-Contract 0xe1b5…20ac	4	$6.43K	116	05-14 06:14
Golden-Recognition 0xe4b4…874d	4	$5.68K	108	05-14 06:14
Shady-Squash 0x122d…95fe	4	$5.61K	103	05-14 06:14
Stunning-Beetle 0x42d9…0211	4	$4.44K	107	05-14 06:14
Required-Jellyfish 0xdae3…0863	4	$3.91K	115	05-14 06:14
Well-Informed-Capon 0x793e…43bf	4	$3.02K	104	05-14 06:11
Quirky-Parenthesis 0x5a89…c186	4	$2.92K	86	05-14 06:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump Leave China on May 16?	3	$626	319	319	+0	open	—	05-14 12:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$226	235	0	+235	No	+$9	05-10 05:23
Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit?	1	$100	102	0	+102	Yes	+$2	05-11 21:31
Will any CEO of a publicly-listed US company attend Trump’s Xi summit?	1	$100	102	0	+102	Yes	+$2	05-11 21:31
Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during events with Brazilian president?	1	$82	85	0	+85	No	+$3	05-06 23:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$74	75	0	+75	open	—	05-06 02:44
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$58	66	0	+66	open	—	05-14 12:50
Will Trump post "Brazil" on Truth Social this week?	1	$50	58	0	+58	open	—	05-11 13:37
Will King Charles's remarks not air?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	05-13 04:01
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	05-06 19:50
Will King Charles say "House / Housing" during State Opening?	1	$49	49	0	+49	Yes	+$0	05-13 04:11
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	1	$33	34	0	+34	open	—	05-14 05:26