Austere-Leprosy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

114

Trades

177

lifetime

Volume

$1.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$42

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-25 22:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

58% 96% +$7

Politics

21% 100% +$3

Crypto

18% 100% +$1

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes		+44	$42	94¢	$42	-$1	10-14 14:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	4	$146	75	75	+0	No	+$1	08-31 12:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$85	43	43	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	3	$85	43	43	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 19:37
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$74	44	44	+0	No	+$0	10-08 17:15
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	10-03 04:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	08-14 03:18
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$42	44	0	+44	open	—	10-14 14:35
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	1	$37	38	0	+38	No	+$0	09-01 05:08
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$37	37	0	+37	Yes	+$1	08-20 18:58
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$36	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	08-05 13:02
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	1	$35	35	0	+35	Yes	+$0	09-22 13:58
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$33	34	0	+34	No	+$1	08-14 03:36
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	08-11 06:35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$22	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	05-31 15:01
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	06-30 13:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$18	19	0	+19	No	+$0	07-30 11:54
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	10-01 06:05
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$17	9	9	+0	No	+$0	09-29 03:29
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$16	17	0	+17	Yes	+$0	08-18 07:26
will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	06-28 11:44
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	07-01 00:21
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	2	$15	7	7	+0	No	+$0	10-08 05:39
amzn above 260 on february 27 2026	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	02-26 09:52
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	09-14 08:12
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$7	8	0	+8	Yes	+$0	05-16 06:39
gc settle below 4350 jan 2026	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-24 13:29
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	15	$5	300	300	+0	No	+$5	08-19 15:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-08 20:26
will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	07-31 19:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 22:08:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	420	0¢	$2	0x708ba8…
10-24 13:52:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x5032e0…
10-24 13:52:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x15d8e8…
10-24 13:21:09	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	41	0¢	$0	0x0ec840…
10-24 13:16:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xea440f…
10-24 13:04:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xb0e9e7…
10-24 13:03:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	237	0¢	$0	0x858093…
10-24 12:59:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	39	0¢	$0	0xd920db…
10-14 14:35:21	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x9510fb…
10-08 17:15:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	44	85¢	$37	0xe5b454…
10-08 05:39:40	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xaa96a9…
10-06 04:17:49	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x544434…
10-05 02:53:52	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	44	84¢	$37	0x09207c…
10-03 04:41:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xbdbbeb…
10-01 06:05:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xca88c7…
09-30 04:22:57	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x43781a…
09-29 03:29:15	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x7ce06b…
09-25 17:01:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x8de47e…
09-22 13:58:19	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x0a06c1…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x77e719…
09-14 08:12:01	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x37eb67…
09-12 06:57:07	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x025707…
09-10 19:37:00	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xad66f9…
09-10 19:35:28	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$22	0xed31ca…
09-10 14:08:57	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	43	99¢	$42	0xe9140b…
09-07 13:03:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xc72ac7…
09-05 21:55:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	43	99¢	$42	0x1d4ceb…
09-01 05:08:57	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$37	0x271ad3…
08-31 12:16:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0xa18c80…
08-28 07:14:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	98¢	$37	0xba5096…
08-26 16:40:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$36	0x5e27a4…
08-24 18:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xdc60d7…
08-24 18:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xc908fd…
08-24 18:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x9962dc…
08-24 18:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	166	0¢	$0	0x906c85…
08-24 18:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x649e06…
08-24 18:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x3820d2…
08-24 18:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x18a2c3…
08-24 18:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x12bf96…
08-24 18:05:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xa90a7d…
08-24 18:05:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xe93193…
08-24 13:57:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0xac3d7f…
08-24 13:50:28	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x6a177f…
08-24 13:50:06	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4ba087…
08-24 04:39:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x3eabfc…
08-21 12:15:30	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x261a32…
08-21 10:50:03	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0xe9a442…
08-21 10:50:01	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	0¢	$0	0x57bdbd…
08-20 18:58:09	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x0d4185…
08-19 15:59:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$5	0x532377…
08-19 07:08:31	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xb3bbad…
08-19 07:08:31	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x8e3402…
08-19 07:01:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xfac8b2…
08-19 06:54:57	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xdcf70f…
08-19 06:50:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x8351ee…
08-19 06:49:34	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x1e51b8…
08-19 06:49:30	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x919ccf…
08-19 06:49:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	0¢	$0	0x1b9cbb…
08-19 06:45:30	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	0¢	$0	0x487982…
08-19 06:37:58	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xf9e869…
08-19 06:37:30	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x7c1b56…
08-19 06:29:57	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x57978e…
08-19 06:29:25	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0x83b238…
08-19 06:29:25	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x3d7da9…
08-18 07:26:07	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$16	0xe768d4…
08-18 00:16:18	will spy dip to 670 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d889c…
08-14 03:36:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0x5fd0e8…
08-14 03:18:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xda181b…
08-13 02:15:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xc4b850…
08-11 15:57:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x80b5c7…
08-11 15:46:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xdf2734…
08-11 15:43:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x46aaff…
08-11 15:43:39	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x970a26…
08-11 15:40:30	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xffed2e…
08-11 15:33:39	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x3bba78…
08-11 15:33:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xb79d37…
08-11 15:24:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x742a4c…
08-11 15:24:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x01fda7…
08-11 15:24:12	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x92fbb3…
08-11 15:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x29ac2b…
08-11 15:20:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0x7791a9…
08-11 15:20:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x03a927…
08-11 15:14:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa79801…
08-11 06:35:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xf440b5…
08-08 19:06:15	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6c0297…
08-06 00:42:18	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x0ab698…
08-05 13:02:56	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x4e7165…
07-31 19:33:42	will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfec4e2…
07-30 11:54:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	19	99¢	$18	0x614a66…
07-29 08:07:48	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x28b077…
07-27 22:32:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8f0ee5…
07-27 00:50:31	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x637617…
07-26 14:01:57	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd91204…
07-25 23:30:16	will xauusd dip to 3700 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2a5deb…
07-25 02:23:57	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcfe113…
07-24 15:51:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb62d2c…
07-23 20:45:45	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa1924e…
07-22 05:11:40	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2c91c0…
07-21 16:51:46	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xe87dd2…
07-21 08:51:22	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x856020…