Dim-Temperature — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

-$68

Hit rate

33.7%

Resolved

Trades

107

lifetime

Volume

$9.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$85

Open exposure

$125

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-09 05:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

68% 67% +$13

Other

31% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes		+93	$88	91¢	$84	$-4	06-01 02:57
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes		+172	$105	24¢	$41	$-64	06-09 05:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$978	550	550	+0	open	—	04-03 07:07
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$849	528	528	+0	open	—	04-05 16:41
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$733	398	398	+0	open	—	03-30 02:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	4	$595	315	314	+1	open	—	04-24 19:04
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	2	$581	340	340	+0	open	—	04-13 10:59
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$511	265	265	+0	open	—	05-01 00:36
will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of february 542 564 882 215 825 637 559 654 593 764 923	2	$467	260	260	+0	open	—	02-03 13:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$442	294	294	+0	No	$-6	04-25 11:56
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$440	224	224	+0	open	—	05-01 00:24
will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	2	$214	118	118	+0	open	—	02-11 09:19
will gold gc hit low 4450 by end of february 844 276 171 389 959 616 957 814 619 837	2	$211	161	161	+0	open	—	02-03 13:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	1	$200	270	0	+270	open	—	04-09 11:41
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	2	$197	114	114	+0	open	—	05-27 16:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$195	115	115	+0	open	—	06-09 05:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$180	246	34	+211	open	—	05-24 04:44
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?	1	$169	0	169	-169	open	—	01-03 11:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$149	138	138	+0	open	—	05-04 02:21
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	1	$140	0	269	-269	open	—	01-17 05:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$125	137	0	+137	No	+$12	05-08 02:03
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	3	$115	369	0	+369	open	—	02-24 09:08
will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	2	$105	132	132	+0	open	—	03-02 18:17
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$105	172	0	+172	open	—	06-09 05:41
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1	$103	0	116	-116	open	—	06-01 21:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$100	56	56	+0	open	—	03-30 02:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$100	104	0	+104	open	—	06-03 05:28
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 30 2026 933	1	$100	114	0	+114	open	—	03-30 02:52
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	1	$100	106	0	+106	No	+$6	05-04 02:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$100	112	0	+112	open	—	05-16 01:10
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	1	$100	118	0	+118	open	—	02-28 04:00
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	3	$98	121	121	+0	open	—	03-27 03:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 05:41:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	115	83¢	$95	0xbfdc48…
06-09 05:41:12	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xec6033…
06-08 07:02:34	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xf3f8fe…
06-08 07:01:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x0f514c…
06-03 05:31:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xaa1a71…
06-03 05:28:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xfcce31…
06-01 21:03:17	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	116	89¢	$103	0x4bbb98…
06-01 02:57:08	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	93	95¢	$88	0x2dfba4…
06-01 02:55:39	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x58305a…
05-27 16:28:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	SELL	114	85¢	$97	0x5c6f66…
05-27 16:25:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x4ab073…
05-27 16:25:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x59cfed…
05-27 16:24:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xb06b4e…
05-24 04:44:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	211	71¢	$150	0xbadcd8…
05-24 04:43:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	28¢	$10	0xb94c86…
05-23 21:03:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x4a987b…
05-16 01:10:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x609615…
05-13 13:12:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0xd3868c…
05-13 13:09:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0x1a4261…
05-13 13:09:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	24	37¢	$9	0xa6380a…
05-11 07:09:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x8a70f8…
05-08 02:03:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	137	91¢	$125	0x595b58…
05-04 15:17:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xe5cf75…
05-04 02:21:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	25	79¢	$20	0x09f1d5…
05-04 02:20:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x703f4d…
05-04 02:20:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xcf0b07…
05-04 02:17:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x1702ce…
05-01 00:36:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	265	96¢	$255	0x36efe3…
05-01 00:34:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	265	97¢	$256	0xea714e…
05-01 00:27:04	Will Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xedbb2e…
05-01 00:25:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xfeb4fd…
05-01 00:25:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	23¢	$26	0x31484a…
05-01 00:24:06	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	224	99¢	$222	0x290f50…
04-25 12:09:20	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	224	97¢	$218	0x3e4c92…
04-25 11:56:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	294	74¢	$218	0x7375d9…
04-24 19:05:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	76¢	$224	0xd861d3…
04-24 19:04:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	SELL	118	95¢	$112	0x03adac…
04-24 19:04:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	SELL	118	95¢	$112	0xe69dd5…
04-24 12:37:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	74¢	$83	0xc90dca…
04-24 12:37:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	SELL	79	95¢	$75	0x18be66…
04-17 16:39:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0xe9c140…
04-13 11:00:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	BUY	315	94¢	$296	0xb8dec2…
04-13 10:59:23	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	No	SELL	340	87¢	$296	0xa3f3ad…
04-12 12:29:01	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	No	BUY	340	84¢	$285	0xdf2961…
04-10 06:10:53	Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x8ea1a5…
04-09 11:58:13	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	24	84¢	$20	0xd593ca…
04-09 11:58:07	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	SELL	32	29¢	$9	0xead6af…
04-09 11:52:45	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xc8a380…
04-09 11:52:27	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x4bd0b8…
04-09 11:49:39	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x0f128c…
04-09 11:49:29	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	12¢	$10	0x399670…
04-09 11:45:53	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xdcdcaa…
04-09 11:41:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	270	74¢	$200	0x305973…
04-05 16:41:03	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	SELL	528	81¢	$427	0x8dd29f…
04-03 07:08:13	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	528	80¢	$422	0xf5bd61…
04-03 07:07:43	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	550	95¢	$522	0x6b7a1d…
03-31 06:49:41	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	550	83¢	$456	0xde6127…
03-30 02:52:42	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 30 2026 933	Yes	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x188875…
03-30 02:46:54	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	398	98¢	$391	0x8a35ba…
03-30 02:45:18	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	56	92¢	$51	0x9fba2f…
03-27 03:43:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	56	87¢	$49	0x399ffb…
03-27 03:40:15	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	121	32¢	$38	0x048963…
03-25 01:28:51	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 947	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$9	0x61889a…
03-25 01:27:57	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	61¢	$9	0x0cfd89…
03-24 03:13:39	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xefd949…
03-24 03:11:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	298	86¢	$257	0x8a0078…
03-24 03:09:37	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	108	46¢	$50	0x46aa34…
03-19 03:59:51	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x199652…
03-19 03:59:41	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xc4b4cf…
03-19 03:56:51	will trump say khamenei this week march 22	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xc9b312…
03-19 03:56:33	will trump say finish the job this week march 22	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x4aab7a…
03-19 03:52:27	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x8ba571…
03-19 03:50:57	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xa8cca7…
03-08 15:19:21	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x71623c…
03-05 07:54:19	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xc13f06…
03-02 18:21:29	will us or israel strike iran on march 10 2026	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x41d6d2…
03-02 18:21:09	will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	Yes	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0xe24980…
03-02 18:20:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xa6b8b6…
03-02 18:17:41	will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	Yes	SELL	132	4¢	$5	0x305657…
03-02 18:13:57	will trump meet with putin by march 31	Yes	SELL	161	3¢	$5	0x206c48…
02-28 04:03:33	will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xd4718c…
02-28 04:00:45	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x8b8fcd…
02-24 09:09:48	will trump meet with putin by march 31	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0xc9f79a…
02-24 09:08:48	will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	Yes	BUY	84	12¢	$10	0x3cb2bf…
02-15 16:18:25	will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	Yes	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0xba6642…
02-15 16:17:11	will trump meet with putin by march 31	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xf19ec2…
02-11 09:19:29	will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	No	SELL	118	96¢	$114	0xafb511…
02-11 09:13:11	jesus christ return before 2027 odds 5 monday night 12 1 am	No	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0xd21ec2…
02-08 03:15:27	jesus christ return before 2027 odds 5 monday night 12 1 am	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x334d0e…
02-03 13:49:38	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xad001f…
02-03 13:49:12	will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of february 542 564 882 215 825 637 559 654 593 764 923	No	SELL	260	90¢	$234	0x08ff9a…
02-03 13:48:58	will gold gc hit low 4450 by end of february 844 276 171 389 959 616 957 814 619 837	No	SELL	161	69¢	$111	0x879a27…
02-01 13:23:34	will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of february 542 564 882 215 825 637 559 654 593 764 923	No	BUY	260	90¢	$233	0x7c6aad…
02-01 13:23:14	will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0xfb3b49…
02-01 13:22:50	will gold gc hit low 4450 by end of february 844 276 171 389 959 616 957 814 619 837	No	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x830d78…
02-01 13:22:30	will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	Yes	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0xbeaf0d…
01-28 16:26:26	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2efac5…
01-28 16:24:30	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x5163dc…
01-25 03:22:02	will trump meet with putin by march 31	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xebcbc8…
01-22 14:39:02	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x98911f…