Cultured-Surname — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

71.4%

Resolved

Trades

179

lifetime

Volume

$3.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$58

1 position

First seen

2026-03-26

last 06-21 07:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

45% — —

Other

29% 0% $-0

Sports

26% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+62	$58	94¢	$58	+$0	06-12 23:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	19	$396	494	494	+0	open	—	06-09 22:18
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	18	$357	501	501	+0	No	+$2	04-18 12:59
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$225	119	119	+0	Yes	$-0	04-24 07:21
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$214	109	109	+0	No	+$0	04-24 23:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$174	161	161	+0	open	—	06-21 07:53
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	11	$152	279	279	+0	open	—	04-23 12:39
Iran leadership change by June 30?	13	$129	347	347	+0	open	—	06-07 07:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	8	$116	208	208	+0	open	—	04-26 15:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$112	82	82	+0	open	—	06-04 15:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	5	$112	207	207	+0	open	—	05-19 12:03
Will Alberta join the US?	3	$111	58	58	+0	open	—	06-02 22:29
israel closes its airspace by june 8	3	$107	55	55	+0	open	—	06-08 18:19
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	3	$107	56	56	+0	open	—	04-13 21:40
will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	3	$99	53	53	+0	open	—	03-26 23:50
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	3	$94	49	49	+0	open	—	06-20 10:41
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$94	50	50	+0	open	—	04-21 01:40
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$85	43	43	+0	open	—	06-03 14:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$82	170	170	+0	open	—	05-24 19:36
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$78	41	41	+0	open	—	06-19 00:17
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$68	35	35	+0	open	—	06-09 01:43
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$63	43	43	+0	open	—	06-09 15:26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	4	$61	85	23	+62	open	—	06-20 17:05
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$61	0	74	-74	open	—	06-14 04:29
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$58	78	78	+0	open	—	05-18 21:47
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	2	$49	131	0	+131	open	—	06-14 12:33
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	4	$45	213	213	+0	open	—	06-19 22:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$38	146	146	+0	open	—	06-10 15:23
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$23	12	12	+0	open	—	03-28 05:06
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	3	$10	172	172	+0	open	—	06-13 09:52
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	3	$9	82	82	+0	open	—	03-30 11:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 07:53:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	31	52¢	$16	0x00079a…
06-21 05:42:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	65	52¢	$34	0xda4b4a…
06-21 05:41:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x287a02…
06-20 17:05:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	6¢	$1	0x6d464a…
06-20 14:52:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	6¢	$1	0x5e00ef…
06-20 10:41:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0xf718bb…
06-20 10:41:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	SELL	36	96¢	$35	0x25f73d…
06-20 08:27:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	49	96¢	$47	0x821a14…
06-19 22:46:43	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	182	11¢	$20	0xfb931d…
06-19 20:07:41	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	11¢	$19	0x4ac68a…
06-19 00:17:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xc8a121…
06-19 00:17:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	38	95¢	$36	0x0a5881…
06-18 23:02:32	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x5c5034…
06-18 23:02:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe43754…
06-18 23:02:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0x20bd96…
06-18 05:01:22	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	10¢	$3	0x4d7925…
06-18 04:52:55	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0xdfbb40…
06-17 17:47:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	15	57¢	$9	0x6a72cb…
06-17 17:47:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x454d07…
06-17 16:14:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	65	57¢	$37	0xb1882c…
06-14 12:33:33	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	86	8¢	$7	0xf9d0bc…
06-14 04:29:18	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	39	82¢	$32	0xe290a4…
06-14 04:29:18	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	35	82¢	$29	0x1de9d9…
06-13 19:39:10	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0xd6eb86…
06-13 09:52:24	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x3aec6e…
06-13 09:52:22	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	147	3¢	$4	0x23efb0…
06-13 08:30:54	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	172	3¢	$5	0x288884…
06-12 23:20:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x565d23…
06-12 23:20:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$21	0x3fb5e9…
06-12 12:19:39	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x3f3483…
06-12 12:19:37	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	156	2¢	$2	0x251656…
06-12 09:56:03	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	164	2¢	$3	0x696254…
06-10 15:23:43	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	146	13¢	$19	0x8fe9f0…
06-10 13:22:09	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	68	13¢	$9	0x339b53…
06-10 13:22:09	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	78	13¢	$10	0x1f82a0…
06-09 22:18:42	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x460c92…
06-09 18:21:01	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0xc8854d…
06-09 15:26:34	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	43	73¢	$31	0x19ef0a…
06-09 12:06:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x542f59…
06-09 12:06:07	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	35	73¢	$26	0x0566a7…
06-09 01:43:12	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0xb3effb…
06-09 01:43:12	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x110db4…
06-08 22:04:42	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0xa529ea…
06-08 18:19:37	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xb1af71…
06-08 18:19:37	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x0d3e5c…
06-08 15:30:07	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	55	96¢	$53	0x2cea0a…
06-07 19:42:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	51	3¢	$2	0xec5ec9…
06-07 19:42:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	48	3¢	$1	0x583646…
06-07 19:42:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x1cfcaf…
06-07 16:17:04	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	152	3¢	$5	0x9a3412…
06-07 12:51:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	149	3¢	$5	0x66e8c1…
06-07 09:43:49	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	149	3¢	$5	0x35aff5…
06-07 07:17:24	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	4¢	$1	0xc88f77…
06-07 07:17:24	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	22	4¢	$1	0x4fc54e…
06-07 07:17:24	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	73	4¢	$3	0x2c22e0…
06-07 03:55:48	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	132	4¢	$5	0xb73466…
06-05 12:50:13	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	46	4¢	$2	0xdec0ee…
06-05 12:50:13	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0xa40575…
06-05 12:50:13	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	4¢	$1	0x4c5364…
06-05 12:50:12	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0xec3f3b…
06-05 12:50:12	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	4¢	$1	0x39f08b…
06-05 11:27:00	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	160	4¢	$6	0x3f3311…
06-05 05:27:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0xac0044…
06-05 05:27:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x70a96d…
06-05 03:31:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x0f033d…
06-05 03:31:45	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	37	96¢	$36	0xecc580…
06-05 00:48:24	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xdc5401…
06-05 00:48:24	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x51325e…
06-04 21:28:48	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	55	96¢	$53	0xbdafc4…
06-04 15:53:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x8eceb0…
06-04 15:53:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x8370e6…
06-04 15:53:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	72	69¢	$50	0x74bf3d…
06-04 13:04:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	82	68¢	$56	0xeb0a66…
06-03 23:51:45	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0x5f35db…
06-03 18:09:13	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	52	98¢	$51	0x44185c…
06-03 14:08:06	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x5cf3fe…
06-03 11:29:08	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x9d4a75…
06-03 09:50:02	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xdd59fa…
06-03 09:50:02	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xa36358…
06-02 22:29:31	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0xaa4390…
06-02 22:29:31	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	44	96¢	$42	0x562f5d…
06-02 19:43:56	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	58	96¢	$56	0x74dad2…
06-02 05:07:41	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x6a16c3…
06-02 00:16:43	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x71cfe0…
06-01 22:13:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe9b1f9…
06-01 22:13:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x8beddf…
06-01 17:52:11	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x476c0a…
05-24 19:36:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	170	26¢	$44	0x1bcb5a…
05-24 16:39:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	170	22¢	$38	0x6fac0f…
05-22 01:34:23	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	29	4¢	$1	0xbab229…
05-22 01:34:23	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	31	4¢	$1	0x468b61…
05-22 01:34:09	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xe69991…
05-22 01:34:08	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	39	4¢	$2	0x374816…
05-22 01:34:08	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	34	4¢	$1	0x2a45e3…
05-19 12:03:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	94¢	$29	0x566639…
05-19 09:54:17	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	95¢	$17	0x1a0768…
05-19 06:45:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	95¢	$46	0x3c47fe…
05-18 21:47:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	78	37¢	$29	0x7180b1…
05-18 19:48:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	78	38¢	$30	0x6a8c28…
05-18 18:14:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	158	5¢	$8	0xedec77…