Difficult-Ultimatum — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.1%

Resolved

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$1.67K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 06-03 04:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 60% $-2

Politics

27% — —

Other

11% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	3	$192	57	157	-100	open	—	05-24 12:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21?	4	$121	118	118	+0	open	—	05-21 16:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?	4	$108	71	71	+0	open	—	05-21 19:04
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	2	$80	53	53	+0	open	—	05-23 13:07
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	3	$80	68	42	+26	open	—	05-30 00:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	5	$79	57	57	+0	open	—	05-30 11:05
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?	2	$71	65	65	+0	open	—	05-28 03:51
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	3	$69	51	56	-5	open	—	05-30 11:05
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23?	2	$62	39	39	+0	open	—	05-21 19:05
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	5	$52	50	50	+0	open	—	06-03 04:18
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$47	54	54	+0	open	—	05-14 15:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	1	$40	50	0	+50	open	—	06-01 19:54
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	2	$40	39	39	+0	open	—	06-02 19:47
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22?	2	$36	77	77	+0	open	—	05-21 16:37
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20?	2	$35	60	60	+0	open	—	05-20 10:40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	06-02 13:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	2	$25	23	23	+0	open	—	05-11 03:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	3	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	06-02 14:14
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1?	2	$24	22	22	+0	open	—	06-01 00:47
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19?	2	$23	20	20	+0	open	—	05-17 12:45
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	4	$22	19	19	+0	open	—	05-31 12:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	5	$21	15	20	-5	open	—	06-01 13:51
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	5	$20	13	13	+0	open	—	06-01 04:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$20	25	0	+25	open	—	05-27 11:21
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21?	2	$20	26	26	+0	open	—	05-20 10:40
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	05-30 11:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?	2	$19	42	42	+0	open	—	05-20 11:32
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	2	$19	16	16	+0	open	—	05-23 13:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$18	9	9	+0	open	—	05-10 23:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?	3	$18	50	50	+0	open	—	05-16 15:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 04:18:00	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x14a2c4…
06-02 19:47:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0x21e945…
06-02 19:47:38	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	50¢	$20	0x88f8cc…
06-02 14:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x262a1e…
06-02 14:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x074b70…
06-02 14:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x8d9d3f…
06-02 13:47:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x0c1383…
06-01 21:57:05	Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi	Frances Tiafoe	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0x85e74e…
06-01 19:54:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xd644d1…
06-01 19:54:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x19ef0a…
06-01 19:53:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1cac5b…
06-01 14:40:21	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xd8f3a8…
06-01 13:52:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x5e8d1d…
06-01 13:51:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xb8955d…
06-01 13:19:32	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x0e9d04…
06-01 11:23:06	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x5fd84b…
06-01 09:10:39	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	33	48¢	$16	0xb05065…
06-01 04:56:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x36d722…
06-01 04:54:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x0f6a1c…
06-01 04:50:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x80edd1…
06-01 04:50:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x3125a1…
06-01 04:08:25	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x3669a0…
06-01 04:06:54	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xec5d6d…
06-01 04:04:05	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7abb29…
06-01 00:47:35	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1?	Up	SELL	22	64¢	$14	0x535dbe…
05-31 23:47:12	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x5b6e61…
05-31 23:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1?	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x041d6a…
05-31 12:01:36	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	No	SELL	14	75¢	$10	0x475dbc…
05-30 23:41:41	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x7dbd2e…
05-30 20:17:25	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xef6a98…
05-30 20:17:03	GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x2cd55e…
05-30 15:16:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?	Yes	SELL	12	55¢	$6	0xb8f7a5…
05-30 13:20:12	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x6faf7b…
05-30 13:19:58	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x663f1d…
05-30 12:01:16	Will BNB reach $700 in May?	Yes	SELL	67	2¢	$1	0xaa6598…
05-30 11:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x56a738…
05-30 11:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x94ae32…
05-30 11:26:06	Will BNB reach $700 in May?	Yes	BUY	67	7¢	$5	0x28b153…
05-30 11:24:35	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x1c974d…
05-30 11:23:12	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xff5b8c…
05-30 11:23:00	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x2d787f…
05-30 11:20:10	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xefd00b…
05-30 11:15:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xb5b2f2…
05-30 11:06:16	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x5ba850…
05-30 11:06:05	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0xdc67ba…
05-30 11:05:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	79¢	$11	0xc6e74e…
05-30 11:05:46	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	25	84¢	$21	0xabfc1b…
05-30 11:05:21	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	SELL	51	71¢	$36	0x65d7dc…
05-30 01:22:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x358d67…
05-30 01:22:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xcc8c40…
05-30 01:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6806a2…
05-30 01:13:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd7a44b…
05-30 01:13:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe62a64…
05-30 01:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xcd766b…
05-30 01:11:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfbf7e8…
05-30 01:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x3b3e33…
05-30 01:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x97801a…
05-30 01:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x71431f…
05-30 01:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xa9a23b…
05-30 01:06:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x098fa7…
05-30 01:02:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x199e1a…
05-30 01:02:03	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9bcc65…
05-30 01:01:54	GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x38b7dc…
05-30 01:01:43	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x5894dc…
05-30 00:44:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x71ad34…
05-30 00:43:52	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe4c19d…
05-30 00:43:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xc73f23…
05-28 03:51:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?	Yes	SELL	65	33¢	$21	0xbf6394…
05-27 21:31:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xd5b490…
05-27 13:57:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28?	Yes	SELL	6	26¢	$1	0xfe050d…
05-27 13:57:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x0202c7…
05-27 11:25:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xa850b0…
05-27 11:24:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x7deb3f…
05-27 11:21:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x745ecf…
05-27 11:20:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0x164774…
05-27 11:15:20	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0x3450fc…
05-27 11:14:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	32	57¢	$18	0x3e79ab…
05-27 00:50:32	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	73¢	$6	0x8537b9…
05-27 00:37:05	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x1c4823…
05-27 00:36:48	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xe4aa94…
05-27 00:36:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xddaa38…
05-26 15:37:52	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xce5bb2…
05-25 20:52:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x043b2b…
05-25 16:10:03	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x064ca7…
05-25 14:21:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$41	0xfa5e81…
05-24 12:03:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0xcbb546…
05-24 00:35:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	42	90¢	$38	0x9b3a3a…
05-23 13:07:26	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	53	74¢	$39	0x6969eb…
05-23 13:01:48	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	53	77¢	$41	0x9be908…
05-23 13:00:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	SELL	16	56¢	$9	0xb9e2ca…
05-23 03:37:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0xd6541a…
05-23 02:21:13	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xe6811b…
05-23 02:17:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xca7f19…
05-22 03:05:20	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xb4780e…
05-21 19:05:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23?	Yes	SELL	39	83¢	$32	0x6a4f63…
05-21 19:04:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?	Yes	SELL	24	88¢	$22	0x13cee2…
05-21 16:39:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21?	Yes	SELL	52	100¢	$51	0x7bb694…
05-21 16:37:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22?	Yes	SELL	77	21¢	$16	0x4b0371…
05-21 14:06:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23?	Yes	BUY	39	78¢	$30	0x26800d…
05-21 14:05:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0xca89d3…